The Swine Flu thing...

[lamont]

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, lamont, hope you're wearinng flame retardent clothes? ouch,

i don't know why i'd need flame retardant clothing with any of those statements...

wow, mariners just tied it up in the bottom of the 9th and have runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out and ichiro coming up... hopefully they don't hit into a double play...

 

[pilot fish]

I agree, you should not need that kind of protection but things can get heated in this thread?

Sean O'Hare just won at Quail Hollow in Charlotte. I was there for part of the week and can tell you, if was some tough course, even if there was no rough to speak of. My fav did not make the cut:depressed:

i don't know why i'd need flame retardant clothing with any of those statements...

wow, mariners just tied it up in the bottom of the 9th and have runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out and ichiro coming up... hopefully they don't hit into a double play...

 

[lamont]

An interesting statistc a doctor friend of mine just shared with me, they are looking into why older people, 50s, 60s & 70s, seem to be more resistent to the current swine flu outbreak than younger people, 20s, 30s & 40s, It is way too early to draw any solid conclusions, he said, but they suspect it MIGHT be that older people that have many years of getting flu shots MIGHT have built up some sort of resistence. Right now it is just empiracal.

First of all, the medical premise there might not be true. So far I don't think they've found that younger adults are having stronger reactions to this than older ones -- that was information coming out of Mexico, but I don't think it has been backed up by the behavior of the virus in the US.

Second of all, it probably isn't exposure to flu shots, it is probably exposure to flu viruses. It is plausible that the swine virus envelope proteins are more similar to viruses that circulated in the human population in the 1940s and 1950s and less similar to current circulating H1N1 human influenza viruses, so older people have antibodies to older viruses similar enough to this swine influenza to give partial immunity. But there's a whole chain of "if"s that lead up to that possibility...

This graphic might lend some plausibility to the idea:

Assuming the 1918 to appx 1957 H1N1 and the post-1977 H1N1 strains are substantially different, and assuming this swine influenza is more like the pre-1957 version, which is a lot of assumtions to make off one wikipedia graph...

 

[lamont]

Turns out that idea is actually what happened in 1977:

1977: Russian Flu Threat

In May 1977, influenza A/H1N1 viruses isolated in northern China, spread rapidly, and caused epidemic disease in children and young adults (< 23 years) worldwide. The 1977 virus was similar to other A/H1N1 viruses that had circulated prior to 1957. (In 1957, the A/H1N1 virus was replaced by the new A/H2N2 viruses). Because of the timing of the appearance of these viruses, persons born before 1957 were likely to have been exposed to A/H1N1 viruses and to have developed immunity against A/H1N1 viruses. Therefore, when the A/H1N1 reappeared in 1977, many people over the age of 23 had some protection against the virus and it was primarily younger people who became ill from A/H1N1 infections. By January 1978, the virus had spread around the world, including the United States. Because illness occurred primarily in children, this event was not considered a true pandemic. Vaccine containing this virus was not produced in time for the 1977-78 season, but the virus was included in the 1978-79 vaccine.

Those >23 year olds in 1977 are now >55 year olds.

It is plausible that post-1977 H1N1 antibodies are not as effective as pre-1957 H1N1 antibodies...

Still a lot of 'if's...

 

[lmgdiving]

Go to mexico!!!! We just returned May 2nd and had no problems whatsoever. In fact, we loved that the cruise ships weren't there, it almost felt like the old days!! Have a good trip and please don't let the media scare keep you away.

 

[lamont]

wow, mariners just tied it up in the bottom of the 9th and have runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out and ichiro coming up... hopefully they don't hit into a double play...

top of the 13th and the mariners are trying hard to lose...

 

[lamont]

1 confirmed case in Q.Roo:

Secretara de Salud

And very likely this can be added to the US students coming back from Cancun and the UK couple coming back from Cancun. And there's probably many more unreported, undiagnosed, unconfirmed cases in the state.

EDIT: yikes, the M's just tied it back up in the bottom of the 13th... crazy game...

 

[pilot fish]

First of all, the medical premise there might not be true. So far I don't think they've found that younger adults are having stronger reactions to this than older ones

Please reread my post. I did not say younger ones had stronger reactions. I said, from what I was told, that older adults seemd a bit more resistent. It is now just something they are OBSERVING. As I said in my post, no conclusions yet.

-- that was information coming out of Mexico, but I don't think it has been backed up by the behavior of the virus in the US. Second of all, it probably isn't exposure to flu shots, it is probably exposure to flu viruses. It is plausible that the swine virus envelope proteins are more similar to viruses that circulated in the human population in the 1940s and 1950s and less similar to current circulating H1N1 human influenza viruses, so older people have antibodies to older viruses similar enough to this swine influenza to give partial immunity. But there's a whole chain of "if"s that lead up to that possibility...

That is equally possible, I would assume. No conlusions have been drawn, just things they are observing.

This graphic might lend some plausibility to the idea:

Assuming the 1918 to appx 1957 H1N1 and the post-1977 H1N1 strains are substantially different, and assuming this swine influenza is more like the pre-1957 version, which is a lot of assumtions to make off one wikipedia graph...

It's all speculation at this point.

 

[pilot fish]

Yes, that is what my doc friend told me, as I mentioned in my post. But, big but, no conclusions

Turns out that idea is actually what happened in 1977:


Quote:
1977: Russian Flu Threat

In May 1977, influenza A/H1N1 viruses isolated in northern China, spread rapidly, and caused epidemic disease in children and young adults (< 23 years) worldwide. The 1977 virus was similar to other A/H1N1 viruses that had circulated prior to 1957. (In 1957, the A/H1N1 virus was replaced by the new A/H2N2 viruses). Because of the timing of the appearance of these viruses, persons born before 1957 were likely to have been exposed to A/H1N1 viruses and to have developed immunity against A/H1N1 viruses. Therefore, when the A/H1N1 reappeared in 1977, many people over the age of 23 had some protection against the virus and it was primarily younger people who became ill from A/H1N1 infections. By January 1978, the virus had spread around the world, including the United States. Because illness occurred primarily in children, this event was not considered a true pandemic. Vaccine containing this virus was not produced in time for the 1977-78 season, but the virus was included in the 1978-79 vaccine.

Those >23 year olds in 1977 are now >55 year olds.

It is plausible that post-1977 H1N1 antibodies are not as effective as pre-1957 H1N1 antibodies...

Still a lot of 'if's...

 

[pilot fish]

That is useful information for the Cancun residents and dive Ops to read.

1 confirmed case in Q.Roo:

Secretara de Salud

And very likely this can be added to the US students coming back from Cancun and the UK couple coming back from Cancun. And there's probably many more unreported, undiagnosed, unconfirmed cases in the state.

EDIT: yikes, the M's just tied it back up in the bottom of the 13th... crazy game...