Employment and things in So Florida

[Florida Scuba Divers]

Thanks John! It sounds like everything will be fine since those qualities are already a part of our life style and its the way we run our business.

Everyday we talk about it and as each day goes by, we see that it really will be the best thing for us to do. We want to live on a 40 ft sailboat eventually and travel and dive all over the tropics and at one point not long ago we were talking about moving to central america, either Costa or Belize. The more I think about this, I realize we will have the tropical warm weather and water than I crave plus its still in the good ol USA with all of the Carib just a puddle jump away.

It's only a matter of time!:cool2:

I love it when dreams come true. We moved here over 20 years ago and have never regretted it. This year has been the coldest I remember in FL in along time and can't wait for it to warm up. Our Course Director & his wife lived on their sailboat for many many years and have sailed all over the world. I think you would enjoy talking to him. Next time you are in the area please stop by and say hi. Until then.... stay warm.

 

[SubMariner]

Thanks guys! I am aware of the housing delima in south florida but it is not unlike California where I moved from 2 yrs ago or Virginia Beach. The fact that I can build anything with quality and style sets my business apart and gives me the confidence to make this move. I have been researching alot of things down your way and it excites me knowing that its a good overall situation for us to thrive in.

Thanks for the link to Florida Trends. I will check that out and get on the mailing list.

I know 8 GC's here in PBC who are scrambling for work and say the same thing.

We have several GC clients here in Tampa who are in the same predicament as SSF describes. Randy, I don't want to sound harsh, but you really need to take off the rose-coloured glasses. There is literally nothing down here in FL for new GCs when the quality people who've been here for years are going out of business.

 

[moneysavr]

Yep Randy,
As a contractor -a bit different field Heavy & Highway I have been going since 1978 and working seasonal in SE Florida for years and do love the Palm Beach area.

As said its a bust! way too many dreamers! not to pop your bubble but have a plan B.
I'm sure some one can quote how many move each day to Florida followed by how many move out ! I know a half dozen personal GC have pulled root's after the crash and in the prime they did ok,but good labor in the trades is a pitfall too.

Just to list a few things you may not of thought about but may have, Permits ,trade licenses & tests, business insurance,start up cost's,storage cost's,business rental property,some apartment rental places will not allow pick up trucks or you need a cap,storage is so tight!

IMO you need a years worth of cash to stay afloat and build references and the time it takes to secure trade licenses for areas you work in,Ie you may get a state license, but still you will need a permit to do work in a town in side of a county and the local officials keep a eye on this!There are no jack of all trade licenses issued! and other contractors will bust you as fast as you set your cup of coffee in your drink holder!
This all dates back to the Hey Day I call it,Way too many Flin flam man scammed way too many good folks so like many sun belt states Florida has cracked down and I think its for the good!

So if you have a ton of cash $$$$$$ and can work for next to nothing like trading dollars,chase generals around as you have probably done before for cash.

Go For it!

otherwise just visit, and keep your good work- ethic in the cold and miserable northern states !
Do your home work I guess?
Good Luck,
Brad

 

[Randy g]

Thanks for the input guys. Hate to say it but florida is not the only place hurting right now, it's everywhere, west coast to east coast.

I've checked on licensing, tests are reciprocating, dealing with permits are similar. Dealing with other contractors is the same and being a owner/operator I have no need to a large labor force. I am not looking to go bust into florida, go big and make a million, we just want stay busy, pay the bills, not put up with the nasty winters and have some fun. Within a year we should be in a position to stay as busy as I want to be based on past performance and good business planning. I need to absolutely bust my ass for the first 12 months, network the hell out of myself and my business. I do 100% of all the work and do not sub anything out, start to finish. It's the way I was raised.:cool2:

Like anything in life there are folks who fail and there are folks who succeed. Lifes all about keeping a good attitude and not quiting. Fortunately I have succeeded in most endevours that I undertake. Persistance and a good attitude go along ways in business and in life. Networking and being a quality person that delivers a quality product generally will acheive the desired goal.

I was told when I moved here, that I could not do what I have done, by dozens of GC's. What I do and how I did things starting out here are alot different than 98% of the contractors out there. Fortunately within the first 12 months my business went to 80% refurrals and 20% from advertising online. I am a 3rd generation contractor and have pretty much seen it all. There have been dozens of big name contractors that have gone under the last 2 yrs, here and across the nation. Fortunately, I have been blessed and my plan has worked here and it will work there.

I appreciate your thoughts and concerns. I hear you and what you are saying but remember there are winners and there are loosers in life and business no matter where and when. It's the strong work ethic, good attitude and persistance that wins in the end.

We'll see ya later in the year. It will be nice to meet all of you in person.:cool2:

BTW I am 46 years old. I threw out the rose colored glasses years ago and understand that the only way to make it in life is to work your ass off. Nothing worth having is easy or free.

 

[sportxlh]

Randy: sometimes the Florida economy has counter-intuitive trends. I have one friend who is a very high end cabinet builder: you’d think he’d be busy given all the wealth down here but he is nearly bankrupt since he has not had a major job in many months. He was accustomed to having many large jobs going on at the same time. I have another friend who is a handy-man: he is busier with low to medium-skill work than any other period in his career. He is primarily working on homes that were purchased out of foreclosure… most of these houses were trashed by the former owners and the new home owners or realtors need drywall repair, stucco repair, tile work, paint, etc. I have another friend who is also a high end cabinet maker and distributor: he has remained busy but is tied/networked into the Jupiter Island, Singer Island (Lost Tree) crowd: all of his other business in the ‘regular’ areas of Palm Beach County (Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, Wellington, etc.) has completely dried up. Without his long established contacts in the ultra-wealthy set, he’d also be in trouble.

I realize that this is just one north Palm Beach county resident’s observations, but if you decide to come, you’re going to have to network very quickly with the people that still have money to spend. Or you can sharpen up your drywall and painting skills and get networked with the right real estate agents for leads.

By your avatar, I see that you ride. There are no twisty roads in southeast Florida, so you’re riding will be taking a back seat to your diving (especially given you ride a sport bike). I still will take a scenic ride (on my Sportster or Road Glide) to the interior of the state once in a while. The rides up the coast really are not all that much fun given the low speed limits and the crazy old people that simply drive out of their condo entrance without checking for on-coming traffic. I put fewer miles on the bike during the 12 month riding season of Florida than I did the 6 month riding season of Michigan and Illinois.

On the positive side, housing is more affordable than it has been for a while: that will be good for you (though bad for me since I’ve lost 35-40 percent of the value of my home since I purchased it). Of course you already know about the diving, the weather, the surf, the sand, college football, professional sports, etc. While I have only lived here for 3 years (not counting the 6 years I lived here as a child), I can't imagine living anywhere else.

Good luck with your decision.

 

[Randy g]

I can do preatty much anything and that is the nice thing about my business. From drywall, painting, electrical, plumbing, wood and tile floors/backsplashes, bathrooms, kitchens, garages, you name it and I do it. Being diverse is the only way to keep busy in trying times like we have today. It should be no different for me there. Like I said, I am not out to get rich, I just want to stay busy, earn a decent living and do good work. The rest should take care of itself.

I pretty much gave up bikes when I left California. The roads here suck!! I was Road Racing in the AFM and teaching high performance riding/instructing for Doug Chandler's Trackmasters school the last few years in California. I sold the sporties when I moved here and bought a new Husky 610 Supermotard for me and a Yamaha WR250X Motard for Kate. They are going to be sold and we will get a small boat to dive off of when we get there.

 

[RhatsaRuck]

Couple more data points:

Unemployment rate increased in 43 states in December 2009. Note that Florida's unemployment rate, at almost 12%, is as high as it has ever been since 1976. Virginia on the other hand has an unemployment rate of roughly 7%. Big difference.

Perspective on real estate in Palm Beach: Palm Beach stats offer upbeat view. The following quote is from the final paragraphs of this article: [Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting, is not optimistic.
...
"But this year {2010}, I'm predicting that ultra-luxury single-family homes are going to take the largest declines," McCabe said.

"We will see foreclosures on homes that are more than $750,000. They are over-leveraged and the owners have taken huge financial hits. When [adjustable-rate mortgages] adjust and monthly payments go from $8,000 to $14,000 a month, they can't do it and we'll see price drops of 10 to 15 percent. What was $10 million this year will be $8 million next year."]

Now the good news comes from the Florida Trends Feb 15, 2010 issue: Boating Industry Sees Deluge of Foreclosures. You mentioned you were in the market for a saleboat... errr... sailboat, right?

 

[Ana]

Of course everyone has an opinion, as a general rule I tell people to stay away from South Florida, I bring up traffic, crime, rudeness and anything I can think off to discourage the "would be south floridians" But I see your avatar and can't do it to you.

If you really want to, you'll make a decent living and have a life in the process. Struggling may be part of the equation, so what? if you're not happy where you are now why stay?

There is no reason to get rid of the bikes either. You have several magnificent tracks and more than a couple of amazing group of riders. Yes, most of the roads are straight south-north and west-east but there are hidden roads with decent twisties to hold you between track days.

Instead of going once or twice a year to a scuba diving destination you split your weekends between dives and tracks and once or twice you drive 18 hours or so to the mountains for few days of twists and turns.

Jennings has a great track and I understand there is a very good one in Homestead. Dive sites? enough to keep you busy the next 40 years or so, ok it may get boring in 30 years if you dive more than 2 dives each and every day

I just read some of the replies quoting terrible data about work situation. I don't have statistics, but I know what I've seen. On December 08 I decided to check out how low were the house prices by the water, saw a lot of foreclosures for very good prices but most of them show how violently was the eviction process. I was lucky to find what fitted my checkbook without bad karma left behind. Who cares right? well, most of those houses I saw back then have been sold already, and there is no way anyone can actually reside there without considerable amount of work done, and I'm not talking about a coat of paint or a couple HGTV tips to make things pop. Hey even I need to do so remodeling but people I call, either don't show up or want to make up with my small job for whatever bad fortune they had in the last couple of years.

So be ready to struggle, work hard, price your work fairly and you too will be able to endure 50 F winters, it will take fortitude of spirit specially when it hit 45 at nigh brrrrrrrr

 

[DebbyDiver]

People are already covering the economic aspects of your question but I want to applaud you for asking about volunteer work! There is SO MUCH...reef cleanups, beach cleanups, marine mammal rescue, and, if you decide on NE Broward, volunteers are desperately needed to walk the beaches at night looking for sea turtle nests and hatchlings. When you get here PM me for more details. The opportunities for volunteering down here are endless and rewarding at the same time. Bravo to you, I look forward to befriending both of you!

 

[RhatsaRuck]

Randy, one more data point. This is a big one. Housing is about to get real bad again and foreclosures are going to increase, not decrease, starting in the second quarter of of 2010.

Housing prices are cratering for a few reasons: (1) housing prices grew to unsustainable levels and (2) "exotic" mortgages, which came due since the start of 2007, could not be refinanced because the underlying assets had deflated in value, and (3) people are unable to afford their existing mortgages due to the lousy job market.

In 2007 and 2008 there was a Category 5 hurricane of mortgage resets. The hurricane has not ended. We are currently in the eye of that hurricane and the back half is going to hit soon. I've attached a chart that shows this in all its gory detail.

The chart shows the mortgage reset schedule, month by month, starting in January 2007. You can see the huge number of resets in the 22 month period from January 2007 to October 2008. Then there is a lull for about 6 months from November 2008 to April 2009. Then resets increase for about 12 months until April 2010. Then mortgage resets jump to a higher level around May 2010 for about 17 months until October 2011.

Now this is going to hit primarily the markets subject to the greatest excesses: California, Nevada, Arizona, and, you guessed it, Florida.

So when everyone here tells you things are bad here, they're right. And this chart tells you it's not going to get better here anytime soon.

I feel that people should be fully informed about making critical life decisions. I'm not saying you shouldn't follow your dream. I'm just saying...

[The source for this chart is Credit Suisse March 12, 2007 "Mortgage Liquidity du Jour: Underestimated No More". This specific chart is on page 47 titled "Exhibit 42: Adjustable Rate Mortgage Reset Schedule".]