I have been trying to find some research available to read online. Having little success, but found a couple of things. It has all made me think that there is far less published formal research on this problem than most of us think.
I couldn't find anything on initial recruitment of lion fish and dispersal of eggs and larval stage and the settling - except maybe a paid for report which I didn't pay for or read. I imagine though it wouldn't be too different from any other common reef fish - although the movement through the life cycle of individuals will, fairly obviously, affect dispersal of the species as well.
We know they have a high reproductive rate (fecundity) and a 26 day pelagic larval stage (from what I know that can be anything from 14 days to 180 days (I think grouper have a long larval stage).
The high fecundity coupled with a short larval stage as well as few/no natural predators is what lead to the ever so rapid dispersal.
I could find one article on site fidelity and movement patterns during their life history which suggests that they don't move very far at all.
http://absci.fiu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Jud-and-Layman-2012-JEMBE.pdf
The study found that individuals more often than not did not move location (even after capture and release) and could be found in exactly the same spot as before (+/- 0.5m). A few moved, but the greatest distance recorded for movement was still under 100m.
This study shows some hope and reflects our experiences in this dive center, around Utila.
While we really have little hope of controlling this invasive species across the Caribbean as a whole the study does suggest that we may have success in controlling their numbers in areas that we commonly dive in as an adult lion fish does not change territories. Once eliminated from an area it seems that new juveniles need to come along to take the vacant place. Probably the adults will eat any juvenile coming into their territory?? They eat all the other juveniles, so why not their own?
Around Utila little dived areas have plenty of lion fish, whereas frequently dived areas have few to (maybe even) none. Most dive centers have active lion fish removal. None of this is being managed by anyone and needs regular encouragement and events organized to keep sustaining this. But so far (around this small island, where we get to dive most of the island and remove on a regular basis) so good.
Where do we find them in numbers - north side shallows (less than scuba depth) and remoter sea mounds and reef banks. Many can be found in shallow water and of course it's perfect juvenile hunting territory. They can be found in numbers on more remote reef banks where people rarely dive. But compare to a very commonly dived site such as Black Coral Wall and I think it would be fair to say they are sighted in-frequently, but even there get more depth and you'll find more (less people diving, so less people removing them - or so I suppose).
I believe the biggest impact is made from local working divers (DMs and Instructors) because they dive here the most and dive widest variety of sites. I believe that regular lion fish derby's are very effective, especially in light of the study on life cycle movement. We have had two in the previous year and they have been very effective here - the island is small enough that once the dive centers get going almost the whole island is swept. Two a year on an island the size of Utila seems to have an effect. An island the size of Roatan would need more and for them to be in different areas around the island at different times.
I am not a fan of untrained lion fish removal - I worry about the impact on the reef of inexperienced spear fishers and injury (from spear and lion fish). However, give people a little training and practice with spear, equip them with the protective gloves, and first aid training, and I would probably come around on that.
What effect does removal by recreational scuba divers have? Well many of the same species that are in trouble on the reef (snapper, grouper) seem to like to inhabit the same areas of reef that grouper and snapper like to inhabit. (
http://www.aquaticinvasions.net/2011/AI_2011_6_3_Biggs_Olden.pdf). They like patch reefs with plenty of hard corals creating overhangs and the like. In other words the lion fish settlings tend to choose the same areas as grouper and snapper settlings. Probably meaning that an adult lion fish is going to get a nice supply of juvenile grouper and snapper to feed on.
So back to my question... well I conjecture that by almost eliminating lion fish from one particular spot we can create a haven for grouper and snapper settlings. Although with species already under threat from over fishing I wonder if even trying to create safe havens for juveniles will be enough.
It seems that we will not be able to remove the problem but that we do have a chance of protecting native species in specific areas from the lion fish appetite.
Doubt should not stop us from though.