Sad article on the future of coral reefs

[MSilvia]

Matt, you distinguish between the two saying one (population growth) is self controlling but the other (GW) will take millennia to rectify. Can you explain this to me please as I don't see the disparity between the two (as a layman).

Put simply, there are any number of phenomenon like war, viral pandemics, or simply growing the population to the point that there isn't enough food, shelter, or potable water to go around that will, in a couple of generations or less, return a massive human population to smaller sustainable levels. Major changes in the earth's climate have no such short-term corrective mechanisms. If the ice caps melt and decrease the polar reflective index, compounding the warming trend, there is no magic bullet I'm aware of that will refreeze them 50, or even 500, years later.

When a population gets too large to be sustainable, a population collapse is inevitable. When greenhouse gas levels grow too large to support the climate we're accustomed to, it's for the long term. Even in the worst case "end of life as we know it" scenario, that CO2, etc. isn't just going to "die off" suddenly.

 

[InTheDrink]

Things grow back pretty quickly though. Whilst I disagree with AfterDark's oversimplifications I do believe (note the verb) that the planet has lots of capacity to regenerate and that a new equilibrium will be found.

I agree that theoretically population should decrease/collapse at a certain point but this point seems naturally bound to the environment and resources. So I see the two as related. I think that in order to reduce our environmental impact we also need to be thinking about population growth. Particularly as China and India come online in terms of resource-intensive lifestyle.

It's all pretty depressing frankly, as there's no obvious way out of the ruin our species seem to be building up to. I don't see individual consumption dropping in any significant way anytime soon nor populations decreasing unless it's foisted upon us by war, famine, pestilence and competition for increasingly fewer resources.

It would be hard to argue that we've been wonderful stewards of the planet. Maybe next time, huh?

J

 

[elmer fudd]

I think you're all missing the most important thing about population predictions. They were all wrong. According to Paul Ehrlich and other experts, populations around the globe were supposed to have expanded much more than they did and we were supposed to be experiencing famine and other catastrophes because of it. What's happened instead is that in every developed nation in the world women have been having far fewer children. So much so that very few developed countries even have a replacement birth rate. The population of Japan is now in decline and other countries like Italy and Russia will soon be in the same boat. Our population is only growing here in the states because of immigration.

Even in the third world, the rate of population increase has slowed way down and is on track to level off in a generation or so.

And none of this happened because of wars or starvation or disease. For the most part we're better fed, healthier and living longer more peaceful lives.

 

[AfterDark]

I think you're all missing the most important thing about population predictions. They were all wrong. According to Paul Ehrlich and other experts, populations around the globe were supposed to have expanded much more than they did and we were supposed to be experiencing famine and other catastrophes because of it. What's happened instead is that in every developed nation in the world women have been having far fewer children. So much so that very few developed countries even have a replacement birth rate. The population of Japan is now in decline and other countries like Italy and Russia will soon be in the same boat. Our population is only growing here in the states because of immigration.

Even in the third world, the rate of population increase has slowed way down and is on track to level off in a generation or so.

And none of this happened because of wars or starvation or disease. For the most part we're better fed, healthier and living longer more peaceful lives.

Elmer STOP! your mucking up the waters with facts, reason and common sense. Just because those other things were wrong doesn't mean they haven't got it dead on now.
You know the old saying about casting pearls before.........

 

[MSilvia]

Things grow back pretty quickly though. I do believe (note the verb) that the planet has lots of capacity to regenerate and that a new equilibrium will be found.

No doubt about it, but "quickly" is relative, and the new equilibrium may not be compatible with our requirements. 100 generations of humans come and go in a blink of an eye from the planet's point of view.