The Swine Flu thing...

[1KWIK_69]

Once again the American "it's all about us" media has it exactly backwards. Regardless of the nature of the flu outbreak, and how virulent this particular strain might be, the plain simple fact is that the greatest risk isn't to Americans who travel to Cozumel or the Yucatan.

The greatest risk is to the folks in Cozumel and other isolated outposts which are currently free of the virus, but might have it imported in the chest of an inbound tourist. While Mexico City might be ground zero, the fact is that there isn't a ton of intra-Mexico travel, so the vector for transmission won't be a Mexican, but much more likely a highly mobile American, who brings it to or from his home town.

If the worst should happen, and this strain is most dangerous, and does go global, Cozumel, by virtue of being an uncongested, fairly remote island might be one of the safest places on earth.

My fear isn't going to Cozumel, but that when I'm ready to go they might lock the doors to protect themselves, and I'll find myself on the outside looking in.

You're absolutely correct!

On the flip side, I might not be that upset if I got to Cozumel and suddenly the US government decides to close the borders. I'd be like, "Damn, I guess I'll just have to stay a while longer and do some more diving!" Work couldn't fire me for taking an extended vacation under those circumstances.

 

[don Francisco]

On the flip side, I might not be that upset if I got to Cozumel and suddenly the US government decides to close the borders. I'd be like, "Damn, I guess I'll just have to stay a while longer and do some more diving!"

Me too!, Right now, I just got back and can't justify going, but if there's the least hint that this is as bad as the most pessimistic scenarios, you can bet I'll be on the next flight to Cozumel, hoping to be locked in, rather than out when they start closing borders.

 

[1KWIK_69]

Before you expouse medical knowledge please get it right. Each year over 30,000 die from "usual" influenza.

The global body said the number of confirmed cases in Mexico rose to 97 from 26, with seven deaths. The WHO confirmed tally from the United States now stands at 109, with one death.

And yes, I play a doctor in real life.

Thank You! At last some input from an actual doctor! I would have said more but I'm just a practicing amature gynecologist.

The only info I disagree with is what everyone else keeps saying too about there being one U.S. death. I'm sorry for the family's loss, but that child was from Mexico City. He got sick in Mexico City, he traveled while sick from Mexico City to Matamoros with his family. They crossed the border with their sick child and took him to an American hospital in Brownsville, which then transfered him to a hospital in Houston. He should not count as an American death. It didn't spread to Houston and kill anyone.

 

[dnhill]

The latest from Mexico is reporting that there are 99 reported cases today with 8 deaths. This being an 8% mortality rate is why folks are so concerned. Yes, there are 30,000 deaths from the "usual" influenza, but at a much lower mortality rate. Mexico has a good health care system, and the higher death rate in Mexico vs. the US is not understood as yet. I hope this gets contained and we can remember it is as the "great flu scare of 2009."

dnhill

 

[1KWIK_69]

The latest from Mexico is reporting that there are 99 reported cases today with 8 deaths. This being an 8% mortality rate is why folks are so concerned. Yes, there are 30,000 deaths from the "usual" influenza, but at a much lower mortality rate. Mexico has a good health care system, and the higher death rate in Mexico vs. the US is not understood as yet. I hope this gets contained and we can remember it is as the "great flu scare of 2009."

dnhill

Mexico's official numbers are going to be way off for a while because given the number of mild cases in the U.S. it might be that a lot of people got the sniffles in Mexico and are not being counted in the overall number of cases because they didn't go to the doctor. The mortality rate is not likely to be anywhere close to 8% if they ever get the real numbers.

One more thing. i just read this about possible reasons it might not be killing Americans. It's from someone that's reported to be one of the top Flu experts in America.

"A: Dr. Gross: In the flu vaccine for more than the past 30 years weÃ×e had an H1N1 strain in the standard flu vaccine that everyone gets at least since 1976 when we had the last swine flu scare. So the theory goes that if youÃ×e had a vaccine that has a N1 in it... when you encounter a slightly different H1 (which is what the swine flu is) that you will be protected from severe illness and death, but not from getting a cold or a bad cold from that flu strain.

The other thing is we havenÃÕ seen reports of a lot of older people getting H1N1 influenza A so they must certainly be immune. An educated guess here would be that these older people may not be coming down with this new strain because most of them particularly if they got the standard vaccine would have some degree of immunity."

 

[don Francisco]

The latest from Mexico is reporting that there are 99 reported cases today with 8 deaths. This being an 8% mortality rate is why folks are so concerned....

One possible reason for the higher death rate is that this is an emerging situation.

Early on in any new disease outbreak there's a tendancy to assume that it's the same old stuff that's been out there and underestimate the severity and undertreat it. Also the number of reported cases tend to be understated, since many of the early survived cases simply weren't counted. The combination of higher than normal numerators, across an understated denominator makes for high statistical death rates. It's also important to remember that with a small total base, small errors get magniifed.

Later on with increased awareness, treatments tend to be sooner and more aggressive, reducing the actual deaths, and the reporting becomes more thorough increasing the base of reported cases. The two combine causing a significant drop in the statistical rate, regardless of the actual number of deaths.

I'd expect that the same will happen with this particular outbreak, and as the base broadens the reported mortality rates will drop.

The problem with mortality statistics, especially in an emerging situation, is that they create highly distorted pictures or what's really happening, for example creating the illusion of a deadly virus that magically morphed into something milder. Afterwards with 20/20 hindsight based on more accurate it's easy to say people over or under reacted.

 

[CozumelAntonio]

Wow, I was having a very nice little vacation in my head here at work until I got to the following paragraph and suddenly realized you were talking about the U.S.
:lol:

I was reffering to MY counrty, Mexico.

 

[1KWIK_69]

I was reffering to MY counrty, Mexico.

You could have fooled me!

 

[1KWIK_69]

Speaking of Biden gaffs, I'm thinking this will be the headline on lots of news stories for the next 3 years and 265 days!
:lol:

White House apologizes for undue alarm over Biden comments

Posted: 05:57 PM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Gibbs clarified Biden's comments Thursday.
(CNN) The White House apologized Thursday "if anybody was unduly alarmed" by Vice President Joe Biden's comments that seemed to suggest Americans should avoid air travel or confined spaces of any kind.

"What the vice president meant to say was the same thing that many members have said in the last few days," White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said. "And that is, if you feel sick, are exhibiting flu-like symptoms?that you should take precautions, that you should limit your travel."

In an appearance on NBC's Today Show earlier Thursday, Biden said he had urged his family not to go "anywhere in confined places now."

"I would not be, at this point, if they had another way of transportation, (be) suggesting they ride the subway. So from my perspective, what it relates to is mitigation. If you're out in the middle of a field and someone sneezes, that's one thing, if you're in a closed aircraft or closed container or closed car or closed classroom it's a different thing," he said.

 

[DandyDon]

Biden makes sense to me...