Tropical Storm Bret is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday

[broncobowsher]

I heard they are expecting a rough season as the water temps are 4-5° warmer than normal.

 

[Barry Brumfield]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/19/weather/tropical-storm-bret-windward-islands/index.html

Tropical Storm Bret no longer forecast to become a hurricane, it's now forecast to impact the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm.

 

[tomfcrist]

So you know more than the professional hurricane forecasters? Cool.

See below. I guess I should work for the NHC.

Tropical Storm Bret no longer forecast to become a hurricane, it's now forecast to impact the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm.

 

[tomfcrist]

I heard they are expecting a rough season as the water temps are 4-5° warmer than normal.

The NHC is expecting a near normal season. We shall see.

 

[tursiops]

See below. I guess I should work for the NHC.

So, you saw the change in the upper-level shear, and so did they. Good for you, but hardly a reason to be so critical of them. Their 1100 AST Forecast Discussion said,

"Global model forecast fields suggest that the mid-level westerly​

shear affecting Bret is unlikely to abate during the next few days,​

and it's likely that deeper-layer shear will also increase in about​

2 to 3 days. This forecast scenario has led to some changes in​

Bret's intensity forecast. Aside from the HWRF, which is an​

outlier scenario, none of the other reliable intensity models bring​

Bret to hurricane intensity. In addition, all of the global models​

show Bret opening up into a trough in 2 to 4 days as it's passing​

the Lesser Antilles or after it moves into the eastern Caribbean​

Sea. As a result, Bret's forecast intensity in the NHC prediction​

has been decreased, still allowing for the possibility of some​

strengthening, but keeping the system below hurricane strength. In​

addition, the new forecast now shows dissipation by day 5, but if​

the global models are correct, that could occur even sooner."​

The NHC is on a 6h forecast schedule, so a lot happened between 1100 AST and 1700 AST; they wee arare of the weakening at 1100, and finalized it at 1700.

 

[tomfcrist]

So, you saw the change in the upper-level shear, and so did they. Good for you, but hardly a reason to be so critical of them. Their 1100 AST Forecast Discussion said,

"Global model forecast fields suggest that the mid-level westerly​

shear affecting Bret is unlikely to abate during the next few days,​

and it's likely that deeper-layer shear will also increase in about​

2 to 3 days. This forecast scenario has led to some changes in​

Bret's intensity forecast. Aside from the HWRF, which is an​

outlier scenario, none of the other reliable intensity models bring​

Bret to hurricane intensity. In addition, all of the global models​

show Bret opening up into a trough in 2 to 4 days as it's passing​

the Lesser Antilles or after it moves into the eastern Caribbean​

Sea. As a result, Bret's forecast intensity in the NHC prediction​

has been decreased, still allowing for the possibility of some​

strengthening, but keeping the system below hurricane strength. In​

addition, the new forecast now shows dissipation by day 5, but if​

the global models are correct, that could occur even sooner."​

The NHC is on a 6h forecast schedule, so a lot happened between 1100 AST and 1700 AST; they wee arare of the weakening at 1100, and finalized it at 1700.

Difference is I saw it yesterday…

 

[tursiops]

Difference is I saw it yesterday…

They may have too, I'm just going on the archived forecast discussions.. But you said nothing until 1pm today? Where/when did you see the shear change?

 

[tomfcrist]

They may have too, I'm just going on the archived forecast discussions.. But you said nothing until 1pm today? Where/when did you see the shear change?

It didn’t “change”. It was there when they pushed their first delusional advisory predicting a hurricane.

Problem with NHC forecasts is that they almost have to be apocalyptic in their forecasts…if they don’t, and a seemingly benign storm hits as a Cat 4…everyone will look at them as if they should have said something earlier…so they generally overweight storms early…then back off. I don’t have a problem with that per se, but when the forecast is as accurate as a fortune cookie…I reserve my right to say so.

 

[tursiops]

It didn’t “change”. It was there when they pushed their first delusional advisory predicting a hurricane.

Problem with NHC forecasts is that they almost have to be apocalyptic in their forecasts…if they don’t, and a seemingly benign storm hits as a Cat 4…everyone will look at them as if they should have said something earlier…so they generally overweight storms early…then back off. I don’t have a problem with that per se, but when the forecast is as accurate as a fortune cookie…I reserve my right to say so.

Sorry, I disagree with almost everything you've said. Using "delusional" doesn't' help you make your case in a rational way.

 

[tomfcrist]

Sorry, I disagree with almost everything you've said. Using "delusional" doesn't' help you make your case in a rational way.

Ok. Cool. Yesterdays shear data. #nohurricanessurviving