'Entirely Predictable' vs 'Managing Uncertainty': How many rolls on the dice means it's 'safe'?

[Kevrumbo]

"Most significant accidents in maritime and aviation accidents, as well as individual catastrophes, are determined to be "system accidents", the result of a cascade of small errors, failures and coincidences. Absent any one of them and the disaster will not have occurred -a truth that is not knowable in real time, only in retrospect. . ." From: “The Clock Is Ticking”: Inside the Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades

. . .How many more little ‘issues’ would be needed to trigger an abort of the dive before even getting in the water? Accidents don’t happen because of a major, glaring, ‘smack you in the face’ issue, they happen because the multiple uncertainties which we think we are managing well, all combine just at the wrong time in a manner which we did not expect. . .

Where possible try to apply the adage, "Learning from your mistakes is great. Learning from others' mistakes is better though!"

 

[gr8jab]

Furthermore, predictability is why you can’t bet on a 7 in a two-dice game in a casino.​

​

Actually, you can. You can play the "seven" directly, or play the "Don't Pass" or "Don't Come" bets.

They just don't pay true odds, but rather skim a little for the house (like almost every bet on the craps table).

 

[ofg-1]

Managing uncertainty is when you have been married 4 or 5 years. Entirely predictable is when you have been married 36.

 

[GLOC]

Actually, you can. You can play the "seven" directly, or play the "Don't Pass" or "Don't Come" bets. .

Thanks, I didn't know that.

 

[GLOC]

Managing uncertainty is when you have been married 4 or 5 years. Entirely predictable is when you have been married 36.

Does that mean you always get it right even after 36 years?

 

[jadairiii]

One concept I believe is important to add to this is the “normalization of deviance”. (I did not coin this term) Basically, you know what the “standards” are, you deviate from that standard, but, you are successful in doing it, so the next time, that reduced standard becomes the norm. Ultimately, not following the standard will result in a bad outcome.


As divers, we should always dive with a competent dive buddy, have our gear in top working order, follow minimum gas rules, don’t exceed certain depth limits and use the proper gas for the dive. But we will all deviate from that, and some will consider, when nothing “bad” happens, that those rules can be altered….until something bad happens.


Good video on this subject, very relevant to diving.

 

[GLOC]

This is the NoD video I include as part of the online class which came from the presentation I gave at TekDiveUSA 16 on being 'Incompetent and Unaware'


In fact, I wrote a whole article on the fact that it is normal to be a deviant.