how long is El Nino expected to last?

[jsyteng]

Hi All,

Looking to book a trip to Cocos in Fall 2024 . . . . but been hearing El Nino is here. Does anybody have an idea of how long it's expected to last? Been a dearth of info on scubaboard as well as the web. I guess these things are hard to predict. Nevertheless, would love to hear views on if I should pull the trigger or hold off. Thanks in advance for your help!

 

[Manuel Sam]

Look at:

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Still a guess, tho, altho from folks who are far smarter than I am on this subject.

 

[tursiops]

Look at:

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Still a guess, tho, altho from folks who are far smarter than I am on this subject.

It is far better than a guess. It is based on computer models and intensive research for four decades. It says 60% chance of returning to neutral conditions by April-June 2024. I'd go with that "guess."

 

[Germie]

It was a strong el-Nino, and that means it lasts 9-12 months. It came around march 2023, so it will be gone around march 2024. Just a normal phenomena.