Keep eye on NHC, possible storms about a week out

[cozcharlie]

Cozumel really needed more stuff to worry about Top graph is obviously from National Hurricane Center. Bottom charts are from GFS model courtesy of Tropical tidbits. GFS shows both systems coming over/very near Cozumel—first Sunday and second late next Tuesday

PLEASE NOTE THIS DOESN’T MEAN THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD A HURRICANE WILL ACTUALLY HIT. I certainly wouldn’t cancel a trip just yet. Just flagging as something to watch. This is just one model (Probably not even the best model, just one of the most widely available ) and it normally changes quite a bit when they run it every 12 hours, but unfortunately it tracks both storms right into Cozumel as of last model run. This far out in time tracks can be off by several hundred miles (maybe even 1,000). The intensity forecast is probably even harder to gauge that far out (could dissipate and be nothing or strengthen and be a real pain).

All this means is that I will be checking internet even more than I already do this week

Looks like the closer storm would pass by Sunday on GFS model. It just shows pressure at 1005mb-that’s not very low (think wave/depression/weak tropical storm )

The second storm could be a real problem. 967 millibars (Somewhere around Cat 2/3 Hurricane )

Pressure and windspeed conversion (NHC)
[https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html]

tropical tidbits (has weather model runs ) Change the region to the western Atlantic when you look at models

[Tropical Tidbits]

 

[Snoweman]

I'm not sure what model windy.com uses, but it has the first storm going over Cuba and strengthening in the gulf near PCB. The second one seems to peter out by Tuesday. Let's hope...

 

[tursiops]

Cozumel really needed more stuff to worry about Top graph is obviously from National Hurricane Center. Bottom charts are from GFS model courtesy of Tropical tidbits. GFS shows both systems coming over/very near Cozumel—first Sunday and second late next Tuesday

PLEASE NOTE THIS DOESN’T MEAN THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD A HURRICANE WILL ACTUALLY HIT. I certainly wouldn’t cancel a trip just yet. Just flagging as something to watch. This is just one model (Probably not even the best model, just one of the most widely available ) and it normally changes quite a bit when they run it every 12 hours, but unfortunately it tracks both storms right into Cozumel as of last model run. This far out in time tracks can be off by several hundred miles (maybe even 1,000). The intensity forecast is probably even harder to gauge that far out (could dissipate and be nothing or strengthen and be a real pain).

All this means is that I will be checking internet even more than I already do this week

View attachment 605366

Looks like the closer storm would pass by Sunday on GFS model. It just shows pressure at 1005mb-that’s not very low (think wave/depression/weak tropical storm )
View attachment 605370

The second storm could be a real problem. 967 millibars (Somewhere around Cat 2/3 Hurricane )
View attachment 605368



Pressure and windspeed conversion (NHC)
[https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html]

tropical tidbits (has weather model runs ) Change the region to the western Atlantic when you look at models

[Tropical Tidbits]


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Neither of those depressions is given more than a 20% chance of developing into a tropical storm. Much too early to get excited.

 

[cozcharlie]

Neither of those depressions is given more than a 20% chance of developing into a tropical storm. Much too early to get excited.

Not sure if you are looking at model actually discriminates between storm and depression (would be interested to see link for future reference) or are just looking at the two day NHC outlook. 2 day outlook was 20 percent formation on first storm and 20 percent on second, but it is now 20 and 30. More importantly the five day outlook is 50 percent on first disturbance turning into something and 70 percent on the second one (The second track which was orange this morning is now red on the forecast map below ). Hopefully it keeps turning to the right (that track has it fairly far north for a Cozumel bound storm , but it looked like GFS was keeping from turning further north

 

[tursiops]

Yep, things have changed. Still too early. Look at the spread in the spaghetti tracks. The ensemble is low reliability.

 

[1967Goat]

YAY! I just booked my flight into CUN for 8/27 for 9 days! I normally avoid the area like the plague during hurricane season, but I couldn't resist the low prices, plus I've only taken 2 vacation days so far this year to go camping. I looked at the NHC before I booked, but I can't live in fear.

 

[JPham73]

We are flying out to CZM 8/22.

 

[Snoweman]

Is there a Norte going on right now?

 

[greeniguana]

Hurricane Model Plots | South Florida Water Management District

South Florida Water Management District plots. Too early to say.

 

[DandyDon]

Is there a Norte going on right now?

There was a breeze, around 6 mph out of the north, but now showing out of the south.