One more false alarm, more messed up vacations.

[DandyDon]

So, I don't think that I am the only one that goes through all this and asks the silly questions every time it clouds up in the Atlantic. Please just bear with us. We all love Cozumel because of the diving and the people and the environment. If we didn't, we wouldn't worry so much.

So true. We spend a couple thousand after tax dollars to be there and dive, we do want to ensure the best outcome. Weather happens, but we want to shoot for the best - and we are going to discuss it somewhere.

If not here, then let's shut down this forum and talk about exploding tanks...

 

[TheUWPhotographer.com]

Well said Scott and Don. I agree with you 100%

 

[bluewaterdiva]

Well, if I had to choose a coastal area to be at during a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane, you can bet it would be Cozumel. I have a DVD of the recovery on the island after Wilma and it was truly remarkable! The people that live there are well prepared and know what to do. I don't recall Cozumel having very many deaths during or after any Hurricane. I think that Gilbert was the worst (deaths 52). I dont recall that the Mexican government has ever evacuated the entire island.
Cozumel,Mexico hurricanes

 

[Dave Dillehay]

Gilbert in 1988 was a pussy cat compared to Wilma in 2005. Wilma may be considered the "perfect storm" as to its strength (strongest hurricane EVER measured to date) and duration over our precious island (24-36 hours depending on which story you believe).

I don't remember the actual death toll from Gilbert but from that "Perfect Storm" in Cozumel there was just one death--a security guard who chose to stay on a pier. That ought to tell you how prepared we are here in Cozumel, and reinforce your decision on where to be when a big one hits.

Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers

 

[cowdog77]

Well, I've decided since a direct flight out of my hub in Houston is only 2 hours from Cozumel and after watching all the "spaghetti models" (aptly named) going all over the map, I asked someone who's been in Cozumel for 20 years what their thoughts are on getting trips cancelled. (Since my travel dollar is hard earned and not easy to come by!)

This is what he said:

The good news is I can relate most of it to the current crop of storms that have just occurred.

As a rule, you should always discount any storm or "proto" storm that forms in the Atlantic near Africa or is any distance east of the windward/leeward islands. They almost always head north well before getting to Cozumel. And thus if they start at, or above the latitude of Cozumel it just shouldn't be any factor at all. That was the case with Hannah, Ike and Josephine as we just saw. I knew that they were going north but I have no doubt that when the media says "There are a bunch of Hurricanes lining up in the Atlantic and headed for the Caribbean" people panic. Indeed, none of those storms were EVER headed for the Caribbean, and you can see where they are now.

Now if you find one that made it into the Caribbean, or formed inside the windward/leeward islands a little more concern is deserved. However, if all or most of the computer models show it to be headed past Cozumel (usually to the north over Cuba or even up the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and the Yucatan) then its a good bet that you dive trip won't be affected. Storms that take this route may cause some concern in Cozumel but almost always have little or no impact here. This is what Gustav just did.

The ones to worry about are those that are in the Caribbean and the models predict an impact on the Yucatan. The worst of these are those that pop up spontaneously and only give a few days of warning.

Even worse are those that form in the Southern Caribbean down by Panama and may blow into Nicaragua or follow the normal path to the north and impact Cozumel. The models don't seem to deal very well this these sort of hurricanes so if you see one pop up there, don't make a big bet on the models.

With all that said and done, I would almost never cancel a dive trip to Cozumel if it had consequences--unless the 2 or 3 day forecast predicted a bulls eye hit. I could go on and on about the number of near misses that never affected Cozumel at all. "
______________________________

So, I'm working on a trip for my buddy and I hopefully before Thanksgiving. And............I'm just thankful Cozumel isn't near the Florida keys!

 

[DandyDon]

Well, I've decided since a direct flight out of my hub in Houston is only 2 hours from Cozumel and after watching all the "spaghetti models" (aptly named) going all over the map, I asked someone who's been in Cozumel for 20 years what their thoughts are on getting trips cancelled. (Since my travel dollar is hard earned and not easy to come by!)

This is what he said:

The good news is I can relate most of it to the current crop of storms that have just occurred.

As a rule, you should always discount any storm or "proto" storm that forms in the Atlantic near Africa or is any distance east of the windward/leeward islands. They almost always head north well before getting to Cozumel. And thus if they start at, or above the latitude of Cozumel it just shouldn't be any factor at all. That was the case with Hannah, Ike and Josephine as we just saw. I knew that they were going north but I have no doubt that when the media says "There are a bunch of Hurricanes lining up in the Atlantic and headed for the Caribbean" people panic. Indeed, none of those storms were EVER headed for the Caribbean, and you can see where they are now.

Essentially your friend said to discount Cape Verde-type hurricanes - traditionally some of the worst - like Emily & Dean. Cape Verde-type hurricane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I should have canceled my trip when Dean was headed that way, and then I suggested here on SB I might be willing to ride it out - to which I was chastised, but I was glad I left. Coz may well have a great survival rate for Major Hurricanes, but still best to not be there at the time. Now I wished I had been following Tropical Weather : Weather Underground and Dr.Master's blog more then. I think I still will. There were models suggesting Ike crossing over into the Caribbean not long ago, but I saw not need to say so until/unless he did...

 

[diver 85]

Hurricane forecasting and predicting is more accurate now than at any other time in history. But it remains just that. Models and predictions.

Weather sometimes just doesn't follow the script. And I will guarantee you, that the first time a cruise ship ignores the "hype" and sails into Cozumel when a hurricane veers off the predicted path toward the island is the LAST time that cruise operator will visit Cozumel. Or any other destination.

The loss of life would be catastrophic and indefensible under US and likely international law. I realize there is a financial impact to both the divers and the destinations, but do we REALLY want to start telling vacationers to ignore the hurricane services (even the non-commercial ones) and simply go to their chosen destinations?

I call that playing with fire, or tempting fate. But to each their own.

They did pretty good with this one....from the time is was close to Haiti, you could see the cone pointing directly @ Louisiana------and bingo-we got it.........We were 4O miles(luckily) west of the eye on this one BUT 30 miles east of Rita's eye and she tore our little town a new butt hole---if you know what I mean...........Now on the horizon-----> Ike....But we would not have it any other way................

 

[diver 85]

Gilbert in 1988 was a pussy cat compared to Wilma in 2005. Wilma may be considered the "perfect storm" as to its strength (strongest hurricane EVER measured to date) and duration over our precious island (24-36 hours depending on which story you believe).

I don't remember the actual death toll from Gilbert but from that "Perfect Storm" in Cozumel there was just one death--a security guard who chose to stay on a pier. That ought to tell you how prepared we are here in Cozumel, and reinforce your decision on where to be when a big one hits.

Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers

Dave, Joe from Louisiana here....Sam and I were staying with ya'll @ the Villa the week you found out about the 'new' addition------remember us???-- that should have been Nov of '07?.....You took us out to eat tacos the nite of your 'news' from back home..........How is everyone, hope the wife and new one are doing well........The last time my wife & I stayed @ the Villa, Greg & Kay were no longer there(May '08), we surely missed them............Anyway, we all survived Gustav but some had it bad----ie Sam, a farmer, got 14" of rain & I think it kinda killed the end of his bean harvest ie I think he lost them..............but Ces't La Vie in Louisiana--we still love it..........Hope to be down in the near future, the 4 of us(2 couples) are gonna try to make the next trip......Till then, take care............

 

[DandyDon]

You're not going to like this, and I see no reason for a thread at this time - but a major Cape Verde-type hurricane with a huge cone has an outside possibility of coming thataway. Excerpting rom Dr.Masters this morning...

All of the major models agree that Ike will hit eastern Cuba on Sunday night. After this point, the models diverge. A southern camp of models, the ECMWF and UKMET, take Ike across eastern Cuba and into the western Caribbean, then through the narrow Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, eventually hitting Texas a week from now. This track would bring tropical storm conditions to the Cancun/Cozumel area beginning Tuesday afternoon or evening, with possible hurricane conditions by Wednesday morning.

​

The other models take him north from Cuba, far away from there. It's very unusual that Ike is even hitting the Keys and Cuba as major September storm there have always headed north...

​

 

[Dave Dillehay]

Dear Dandy Don,

Perhaps you did not read the post thoroughly. The author did not "discard" Cape Verde Storms at all. Indeed, he suggested that IF such a storm did make it into the Caribbean--then carefully watch the models--but not have a panic when they form off the coast of Africa.

Dave Dillehay
Aldora Divers

PS We at Aldora share your opinion of Welcome to Weather Underground : Weather Underground and use that for most of our planning.