I'd like to share some thoughts on the original post. Take it for what it's worth and they are just my personal observations. I've no 'data' or research experience. I just live and work in and on the water.
Regarding Jellyfish Lake. Yes, it is not what is used to be. I believe things are a bit more complicated then just blaming an El Niño oscillation. Without a doubt the load impact of tourism has risen dramatically over the years. I'm not saying this is bad on its face value, but, management and on-site practices should be given consideration also. Does anyone remember going to Jellyfish Lake in past ENSO warm years before there was even a fee or Ranger Station? I do and those times don't reflect what I've seen in recent history. I'd be curious to hear what others think from daily experience over many years.
Go to JFL anytime between 10 and 3 pm and just hang out a bit to observe. I think you'll notice two things - a large head count and heaps of amatuer finning or general thrashing about within the jellyfish clusters. There are DMs and guides who are very good about educating clients about not egg-beating the jellyfish......and those that do not. Also, some try, but they just can't control a large crowd of truly amatuer swimmers.
As jellyfish numbers declined, on appearance at least, an education effort was made on keeping sunscreen and other aquatic hitch-hikers out of the lake. I've no idea on if sunscreen truly effects the lake water quality, but the ridiculous little tub hundreds of people step in momentarily seems pointless.
Another rumor, though I've not witnessed it firsthand, is people taking the jellyfish out in ziplock bags. I have chatted with hotel staff that said their electric kettles were getting ruined from tourists cooking jellyfish in them. In the end they just got rid of the kettles. Again, I have not been in the rooms and seen this personally, but I didn't have any suspicions they were just making things up.
Recently privately owned dive shops took it upon themselves to stop taking clients to JFL in a self mandated conservation effort. Koror State itself did not follow suit, let alone lead by example. While you're taking that time to hang out at JFL (over half a day would be good) count the heads and times that by $100usd. JFL permits are a cash cow for Koror State. Do your own research and see where that money ultimately ends up and what real world expenditures are made. Beyond a press release.
From my own experience I've seen a drop in overall fish population throughout the entire lagoon. Same goes for over the reef. I don't think this is completely attributed to the shear number of divers in the water, directly, but, there are peripheral effects (and I'm not even touching on over the horizon illegal fishing).
There has been, for quite some time, visitor demand for ocean resources. Food, trinkets and sort of an 'experience'. Locals have been fulfilling that demand. Poaching has been rampant. Enforcement has been luke warm far too often. Convictions that set an example? Don't get me started. What happens on the ground/in the water is too often at odds with what is put out for public consumption in various forms of media.
Beyond the tourist dinner plate, Napollean Wrasse, fruitbat and pigeon are commonly seen in local custom or at home just because someone wants it. So be it, but don't love to hate the Chinese solely. Matter of fact, spend anytime in the Rock Islands, outer fringing reef areas or more southern islands and count the Chinese, Filipno or Bangledeshi fishermen. With the exception of the one sardine boat by the Iro wreck I'll bet that number is near zero. God forbid a Filipno even drop a line in the water anywhere. They'll get schooled right quick on who owns everything.
Years ago, at dusk, many, many bats would gracefully flap their way north over Koror nightly. Not anymore. Last I heard fruit bat soup was at $50. Mainly a photo op. Somebody is filling that demand.
Take a few days and snorkel the inner lagoon just about anywhere. You'll see no shortage of empty clam shells of all sizes. Not long ago there was a pic floating around on social media on a giant clam that has been broken open on a local dive boat. Amazingly someone posted it. Shame on the tourists, but triple shame on the guide, DM and owner of that company. Another demand filled.
Skip a dive sometime and watch who is fishing at the dive sites. I see it daily, in closed areas. I've seen guides and drivers casting right on the heads of divers....same guys, day after day in broad daylight.
Blue Corner, New Drop and Big Drop are sites you can go to anytime between 9-5 and watch a parallel show. Inexperienced divers abound. Non professional DMs lead the way. You'll see divers going head over ass, literally, in current. You'll see divers climbing an underwater Mt. Everest clawing against the current to get back into position. You'll see DMs either blissfully unaware or, again literally, more concerned with showing off. Don't get me wrong, most of the guides are superb, but some companies operate at a shockingly low level of competence. Truly, the Asian market seems to tolerate substandard diving companies.
In the last two years I began to hear something that was truly worrying - very experienced and worldly divers expressing the realization Palau didn't live up to the hype. Newbie divers are always wowed, and thank goodness there are a lot of them, but it was personally unnerving to hear first hand clients saying what I've quietly thought. And as all of us know in the dive business, you need to hype and sell your location....often to the point of being a bit 'delusional' to keep sales flowing.
I would like to point out more laws and regulations to address issues should be considered suspect. If divers/clients can find long time industry insiders that will speak freely, I'd suggest they listen and pass on that knowledge. There's a small, key handful of people with long term vision and goals that can make Palau not only sustain and grow tourism numbers, but reverse the trend of where it is headed on impact. For years administrations have touted 'high end/low impact tourism' yet in practice done the opposite. Bureaucracies have grown along with fees and taxes to support them. Lots of finger pointing. As they say - follow the money. For any motivated ethical travelers I'd suggest researching what their green fee, exit tax and dive permit monies really achieve. The information isn't hard to find.
So, in the end, I think what drives positive change anywhere is the consumer. Give your cash to private companies that share and act on your values. Question wether your cash given to official channels really accomplishes something or just makes the giver and receiver feel warm and fuzzy in a shared neurosis of sorts.
Palau is still a great place to dive. For now.
