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Poll - Will this partial closure of marine park affect your future plans to visit Cozumel?

Discussion in 'Cozumel' started by ReefHound, Sep 25, 2019.

Will this partial closure of the marine park affect your future plans to visit Cozumel?

  1. I'm not going back until it re-opens. Those were my favorite sites.

    37 vote(s)
    19.8%
  2. I may still go but maybe not as often.

    18 vote(s)
    9.6%
  3. I'll go anyway because there are still plenty of great sites.

    66 vote(s)
    35.3%
  4. I'm going to wait and see how it shakes out.

    41 vote(s)
    21.9%
  5. I don't know. I just don't know. Decisions are hard.

    7 vote(s)
    3.7%
  6. Other, of course.

    18 vote(s)
    9.6%
  1. Kharon

    Kharon Solo Diver

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Upstate NY
    3,881
    3,341
    113
    Only reason I'd go would be to do the snorkeling with the whale sharks from Isla Mojeres.
     
  2. dflaher

    dflaher Barracuda

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Chandler, AZ
    272
    79
    28
    I typically visit Coz annually in the summer (just returned from a trip in late August), so I don't have plans to visit during the upcoming closure.

    However I still plan to come back next summer, although I'm aware reef closures aren't known yet for that time. I look forward to diving sites I possibly haven't been to, or maybe taking a day and diving the cenotes on the mainland. I enjoy the food, people, and the atmosphere that Cozumel offers.
     
  3. Cert1967

    Cert1967 Let's Go Skiing

    # of Dives: I just don't log dives
    Location: Vail, Colorado
    241
    155
    43

    @Christi

    So, your costs are fixed and your margins are narrow?

    And

    IF the poll reflects some version of reality - the dive biz in CZM is going to lose
    • 25% are not coming until reopen
    • 10% not as often
    • 20% wait and see
    • 5% doesn't know
    The top-end loss is 50% or more

    Take a chop and use a range decrease of 20-35%

    Fixed cost doesn't change

    Dive ops might wish to think about their fixed costs vs failure - what's to cut?

    Don't operate or operate at a loss to preserve the future?

    How much does an employer have to pay for redundancy layoffs in Mexico?

    Loan payments don't stop - collateral may become impaired

    If the poll anywhere near reflects the possible decrease in the biz - dive ops finances will be under severe pressure and failure will occur.


    ***********************

    Will this partial closure of the marine park affect your future plans to visit Cozumel?

    1. I'm not going back until it re-opens. Those were my favorite sites.
      29 vote(s)
      24.2%

    2. I may still go but maybe not as often.
      13 vote(s)
      10.8%

    3. I'll go anyway because there are still plenty of great sites.
      35 vote(s)
      29.2%

    4. I'm going to wait and see how it shakes out.
      23 vote(s)
      19.2%

    5. I don't know. I just don't know. Decisions are hard.
      6 vote(s)
      5.0%

    6. Other, of course.
      14 vote(s)
      11.7%
     
  4. drrich2

    drrich2 Solo Diver

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Southwestern Kentucky
    8,023
    5,252
    113
    If this is a one time thing, I suspect it'll be painful but they'll bear up. If it is done repetitiously and often, you could be right, though I suspect the most popular will endure. I don't think that'll happen. Ironically, getting into a price war right now could seriously damage them, in combination with the loss of customers you envision.

    Now that the dive op.s are aware of this, they have time to organize and fight further efforts. Beyond that, from an environmental perspective, a couple of issues come to mind:
    1.) Some of us doubt it'll meaningfully impact the target disease issue.
    2.) Unopposed lionfish proliferation will damage other species. While eradicating them isn't feasible, creating 'reservations' for native species in guide-policed recreational use reefs is.

    Richard.
     
  5. El Graduado

    El Graduado Manta Ray

    664
    1,236
    93
    This poll may be interesting, but it hardly a way to see how the closings will affect the dive industry in Cozumel. Out of 1020 people who have viewed this thread (which I assume means they are interested in the thread) only 121 voted. I don't know the number of divers the dive shops put in the water every day, but it is more than 1,000 I would assume, considering the number of boats with and without permits. Those 121 votes in a very unscientific poll don't seem very convincing one way or the other to me.
     
    islanddream likes this.
  6. drrich2

    drrich2 Solo Diver

    # of Dives: 200 - 499
    Location: Southwestern Kentucky
    8,023
    5,252
    113
    2050 Views when I looked just now; but does that mean 2,050 people, or may it mean 205 people opened this thread 10 times each? If you got the 1,020 figure separately, as unique individuals, how did you find it?

    Richard.
     
    ReefHound and Brodydog like this.
  7. ReefHound

    ReefHound PADI Pro

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: Houston, TX
    5,500
    1,579
    113
    The poll was not intended to be and is no a scientific poll but bigger decisions have been made on much smaller sample rates. It seems to indicate that many are considering this issue carefully in their decision. Many of the 35 saying they will go anyway were from those already booked. Choosing to go when the options are wide open is very different from bearing the costs to cancel and go somewhere else last minute. My fault for not distinguishing the two.

    Also keep in mind that other destinations have not tried to use this yet as a competitive advantage. Perhaps we will see Belize ads proclaiming "We love scuba divers. ALL of our reefs are open to divers"?
     
    Brodydog and drrich2 like this.
  8. scubadada

    scubadada Diver Staff Member ScubaBoard Supporter

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: Philadelphia and Boynton Beach
    10,957
    6,403
    113
    Some of the harder hit reefs are north of the closure. Perhaps those reefs will get their turn to rest
     
  9. JamesBon92007

    JamesBon92007 Great White

    # of Dives: 2,500 - 4,999
    Location: Southern California...too far from the ocean
    3,045
    1,190
    113
    My girlfriend and I began volunteering in the coral gardens last year and, if anything, the situation is encouraging us to possibly go there more often. Although we don't know a whole lot yet about the corals and the causes of the diseases, we had seen significant improvements in some areas but haven't been back since June so perhaps things have taken a downturn since then. In any case we intend to keep trying and do whatever Dr. Mendez thinks we should do. Who knows--someone might stumble upon something useful. Every time we go we meet more people who have taken the course and are helping out.

    In addition to diving the coral gardens we will also be doing several boat dives just for fun :) I'm sure we'll have a great time even if some of the dive sites are closed.
     
  10. Sounds like you visited Coz pre-Wilma and post-Wilma (Wilma was late summer 2005). Wilma reminded me of a Nuclear-strike as well, it will take centuries to recover that growth, and that's before factoring in the subsequent years of assorted human induced harm (over development/silt/dredging/pollution/global warming) and exotic diseases like this coral 'Ebola-like' plague.
     
    Astran likes this.

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