Coco View in October

[flareside]

From the charts on: 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season (click the numbers across the top to change), many years there is no activity at all and for many of the remainder (excl. 2005 and 2010 obviously), there are only 3 or 4 days that are impacted the entire season. So for any given week, the probability of getting disrupted by a hurricane is extremely small and that is what trip insurance is for.

 

[chillyinCanada]

I'd rather try and get on a flight OFF of Roatan than Cozumel or Cancun. Wouldn't be dealing with near the same number of evacuees. That said, someone planning a trip at that time of year should be aware of the season and make decisions regarding insurance and such accordingly.

 

[Doc]

A lot of ifs to consider.

Since the OP was talking about CCV and weather, I'll stay on that for a bit. I have been there for several tropical storms and there's no place I would rather be. The airport was closed down for a few days, and CCV gave us free room and board. Every day, they would load our bags, take is to the airport, then, after the airlines announced another cancellation, CCV picked up our bags for us and took us "home" for lunch and dinner. Fantasy Island charged their guests for the additional nights. FI made the guests load their own bags. AKR put their guests up, but the restaurant charged and the guest bags were trucked over uncovered in the downpour. I definitely noticed the level of grumpiness in the various guests. We were kind-of happy to go back to CCV until Tuesday (the first flight out) and enjoyed free rum punch for those 3 days. Your experience may vary.

CCV is really not 3' above high tide. The shoreline units are maybe 1.75' above, and the many units that sit on posts are 4.5' floor height. In that Storms rarely hit from the South, this has been sufficient. Even during the wind exposure from Mitch, there was inconsequential damage. The same weather destroyed the well sheltered docks at North side's AKR and wiped out much of the Garifuna settlement, including Ben's Dive Shop which promised to be an exciting offering- it never came back.

1998, Hurricane Mitch apparently had no GPS....



On another note, a bit of historical fact and correction (minutiae) : Hurricane Mitch (98) did not miss Roatan by being to the South, it hit Guanaja 18 miles to the West. During that storm, only one fatality was directly attributed to storm and wind debris, this was on Guanaja. Yes, on the mainland, there were an astounding estimated 12,000 fatalities.

The weather effect that struck me as most bizarre was after that record breaking storm cleared- the Seas on the South were dead calm and remained 12" higher than I had ever seen them- for about a week. Low pressure and residual basin surge? I don't know, but it was very spooky.

Storms in October/November... it's an issue all over... Storms can be a bugger anywhere in the Caribbean basin, you can look at historical storm tracks and past statistics. What's going to happen is what's going to happen. Insurance might be a good idea no matter where you go.

Pick your housing or resort with care, in many ways, you get what you pay for.

As to airlines, the interesting fact about storm delays on RTB is that the airlines are trying to get there with their new guests. This is now an empty aircraft that you were supposed to be getting on anyway, so there's not much of a problem... once they start flying again after any weather. Other destinations might likely have lots of "new" Northbound customers desiring to get home, ex-pats and long-term types ready to get back to their jobs that support the yacht or vacation home~ not so much on Roatan.

 

[hdtran]

It's a risk tolerance & planning question.

Buy trip insurance, with a "cancel for any reason." Then, play it by ear. Or, don't buy trip insurance, and also play it by ear. (If you're not buying trip insurance, you're basically "self-insuring.")

Just be ready to call the trip, just like calling a dive. O-ring in your BCD inflator is not seated correctly; you lose a bunch of air. Do you call the dive? You drop your camera; chase after it. Call the dive yet? etc. Don't let a cascade of little things happen. If you do choose to go, and the tropical depression turns into a tropical storm, into a hurricane, and the path veers strangely south--be prepared to calmly and rationally plan. Discuss emergency plans and contingencies with resort operations. Water? Shelter? Food? Sanitation issues? I was in Washington DC a couple of years back when they had that little earthquake. The hotel housekeeping staff were not prepared--had not planned for earthquakes, and didn't know to evacuate (using stairs, and not the elevator!). Once they were told that they should evacuate, just like a fire, they were fine.

Some things, you can't plan for (Boxing day earthquake & tsunami in SE Asia; Tunguska; etc.).

Be aware of possible hazards (mosquitos and sand midges being the biggest hazards despite being small). Plan. If it's just wet, but the pool is open--you're just as wet underwater. (Heck, wetter). If it's wet and blowing, and the pool is closed? Don't insist on the staff opening the pool.

If someone offered me a free trip to CCV, but I need take it in October? I'd go.

If someone offered me a free scuba trip to North Korea? I'd decline.

 

[Mike]

Downplay it all you want but fact remains, if Mitch had come a little farther north OR Wilma had tracked a little farther south the Bay Islands would have taken a big hit. It's easy to look at their paths and the distruction that happened in their path to see it is completely possible for the next one may go up the middle,make a direct hit on Roatan and do major damage to the resort areas. While a lot of Roatan is up high, the main dive resorts are not...CCV is maybe 3 feet above sea level. You know as well as I do, hurricanes are nothing to mess with, nothing phobic about that. I just makes sence to me to avoid planning trips to that part of the world during hurricane season. Hopefully we will all miss the hurricanes this and every season.

You roll the dice and you take your chances. Odds are highly in your favor if you go to Roatan in OCT/NOV you aren't going to get hit by a hurricane. Odds are highly in your favor it will be rainy. The rain will turn out to be almost for certain the part I'd be worried about before the hurricane part. Sh*t happens, plan for it if you are worried. While back we were on Roatan when that huge earth quake hit off the coast. We spent the night on the side of the road up on the hill top with a couple other hundred people. Sh*t happens, what you gonna do, stay home all the time?

You can stay home, or you can go and mitigate the hazards, both financial and life threatening, the first with insurance, the second by watching the weather. Dang huricane isn't going to sneak up on anybody during a weeks vacation.

 

[laurenceh]

yes we mustn't forget earthquake season and its accompanying tsunami's.

 

[RTBDiver]

I had forgotten bout the earthquake, That dang thing cost me more in damaged stuff than all Roatan storms combined

---------- Post added August 6th, 2013 at 10:07 AM ----------

While back we were on Roatan when that huge earth quake hit off the coast. We spent the night on the side of the road up on the hill top with a couple other hundred people. Sh*t happens, what you gonna do, stay home all the time?

.

LOL, I heard about all those folks heading up the hills, I figured at 4 stories tall I could just head upstairs if needed

 

[Mike]

I had forgotten bout the earthquake, That dang thing cost me more in damaged stuff than all Roatan storms combined

---------- Post added August 6th, 2013 at 10:07 AM ----------


LOL, I heard about all those folks heading up the hills, I figured at 4 stories tall I could just head upstairs if needed

Four stories works fine as long as the tsunami isn't 5 stories tall.

The staff at the Mayan Princess where we were staying wanted everyone to go up to the top of their building too, we said F-that and jumped in the rental car and hi-tailed it out of there as fast as possible. In an emergency I'm not looking for good enough, I want over-kill. If there had been a rocket ship to the moon that night, I would have preferred that, anything to get out of and as far from the danger zone as possible.

Regardless, the diving the rest of the week was interesting to say the least. The random groans and deep throaty rumbles underwater added some additional things to talk about during surface intervals. I just thank God the island wasn't damaged anymore than it was, had a tsunami hit and destroyed all the low lying parts of the coast, that would have made for a completely different experience, not just for the incovenience of a tourist, but for the loss of life and Roatan probably still wouldn't be fully recovered to this day.

 

[diver 85]

Another Mitch??
Mitch was not too much of an issue for Roatan other than poorly laid out docks and such, My home lost a few asphalt shingles , Sea level?? Some is but take a look at geography, the water from a surge falls off the hills very quickly, Roatan is not flat, Also recall there were very few deaths and injuries on the Bay Islands, Mitch caused much more damage and death on the mainland so maybe the Islands were actually safer??


Yep. So your home state of NC puts you top on Hurricane phobes, My US State is lowly Florida so we don't even know what a hurricane is. Its not like you could not evacuate if you got skeered watching the tracking so what's the big deal? The bigger issue with being third world island is letting other decide , like when they evacuated the Island and flew people to the mainland, CLOSER to where the storm landed. Blow all the smoke you want, it makes no sense not booking a trip because of an extremely rare occurrence which you could evacuate if you got the willies and for a small amount have trip insurance, last storm to do any serious damage was Mitch in 98 and it took its toll on the mainland and Guanaja, it might go back as far as the 60's to Roatan having any type of life threatening storms

For Mitch, no one really knew where the safe 'hurricane holes' were for boat protection etc--because it had been so long since they had a severe storm...Our house on the north side too lost a few shingles(only) & we were 60 yds from the beach line....Now saying all that, we did not hear from our 19 YO son who was living there fulltime for 9 days(Mitch hit on Tuesday & stalled out over Guanaja till Thursday--we heard from him by sat. phone the next Friday).....btw, read one report afterwards that one fella had winds that topped out @ 236 MPH on Guanaja, way too close for our comfort.....Wife & I kept saying during those 9 days 'take the house & boat & leave our son'.....It was a ruff week+.......

 

[RTBDiver]

Wife & I kept saying during those 9 days 'take the house & boat & leave our son'.....It was a ruff week+.......

So basically your big thing was not hearing from a teenage boy for over a week, A pretty regular occurrence, after a storm caused minimal damage planes were in and out well before 9 days and there was some phone service as well, seems more of a parenting thing than a hurricane thing