LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION
This is what determines how successful a dive shop is, with the current variables of the economy and the internet. In our area we have several (10 right off the top of my head) dive shops that offer training, trips, gear, and service. With that being said, the shops that are located in high income areas make a very good living because the high volume of people that come through don't take the time to shop online ($2000,00 for a setup is pocket change to them). Then you take my shop, in a lower income area, people are all about saving money and tend to shop online. In land dive shops like mine must offer other services or cheaper prices if they want to compete with other shops and the internet. We are fortunate that we have a Dive Shop / Marina / Boat Shop combo that funds the diving expense, because the days of train a student, sell him gear, and then take him on a trip 5 times a year are all but non-existent. I agree with the statement, business models must change to follow new age ways, because times have changed. This is why we have started to invest our time and money into other things that are related to our specific location. Example would be salvaging. We are the only dive shop in our area that is located on a body of water, and we are also the only shop in the area that is equipped to adequately search and salvage large vessels out of our lake. Location plays a big role in how a shop capitalizes on it's services. Out of all the shops with in 20 miles of ours, only one is direct competition to us. To compete with this shop, we have decided not to lower prices but to offer services that they don't. So far we have been very successful in doing this and recently expanded from a small 500 square foot building to a 2500 square foot building. We also work hand in hand with another local shop less than 9 miles from us. When a customer comes in wanting a particular type of equipment that we don't generally carry that the other shop stocks, we will send that customer to the other shop. Some say this is shooting ourselves in the feet, but the working relationship works well with us because we offer training that the other shop doesn't. In return the other shop sends us students on a regular basis. The working relationship will not work for all but has been a blessing to us. Resort area shops capitalize in the same way because they offer a charter service. Most other shops plan trips through them and take their customers on trips. I would venture to say most resort shops don't offer salvaging 24/7, 365 days a year. So once again location, location, location is the key to the success-fullness of a dive shop. But the days of surviving on gear sales alone are long gone unless you want to start selling online.
As far as the independent instructor rise, I have noticed this more and more, for several reasons. One of course is the pay. But I blame most of this on the Training Agencies and the Dive Shops. Before I continue, let me state this. For argument sake, lets say there are 2 types of divers, those who dive, and those who vacate. The ones that dive (for case in point say 20 or more times a year), tend to educate themselves more than the ones that only dive on vacation. And the ones that only dive on vacation, usually have the mind set of, I want to get certified fast and cheap. The training agencies (we will use PADI for an example) find a quick and easy method of certification (example omitting old out dated skills, Buddy Breathing for example or even teaching the tables), so that they can get the most quantity of people certified in a short amount of time. They hide behind the cover of, well now it is required to have an alternate regulator so there is no need to learn to buddy breathe. So with all this, shops (rightfully so) look for the fastest and cheapest way to certify a multitude of students, even if it means paying the instructors less money. This also can be seen where shops only train through one agency, take a larger based shop like Diver's Supply, who recently changed from a PADI shop to an SDI shop, presumably because of cost of material and training. The shop looks at profit (which they should), and then decides what is most financially practical to them. Then take the students that want to continue in diving but seek more in depth training. This is where the independent instructor comes into play. He has a greater time table to certify the student, and can usually branch out and teach for multiple agencies with out getting flack from the shop. We have 4 current instructors on staff, that can teach for different agencies including, PADI, PDIC, SEI, CMAS, SDI, NAUI, and etc. We chose to do this, because no other shop in the area does that. We show the student in the very beginning that there is more to diving than just one agency, and we give them the opportunity to express what type of diver they want to become. Then we pick the best instructor that will suit their needs, and let them set their own schedule for training and certification.
Unless a shop is located in a high end heavy tourist area, where they certify or charter 1000 or more a year, then they are going to have to expand their services to survive. One of the oldest shops in North Carolina, is a very small PADI shop (less than 600 square foot), that back in the 1990's trained 200-400 students a year, and I would say sold at least 100-150 compete sets of gear in the same year. Now, they sell maybe 2 complete sets a year and train maybe 20 student per year. But they are still going because of reputation. They have one of the best PADI Instructors around, and I have personally looked up to him as a mentor for many years. This reputation has kept them alive through the fall in the economy and they still are one of the best shops in our area. I would love to see the economy take a 180 degree turn and people start spending a fortune at their local dive shops, but until that happens shops (not all but most) are going to have to change to survive. Business is a tricky business, like the unofficial US Marines motto, "Improvise, adapt, and overcome." Shops must do the same if they want to survive.
I don't know the exact future of the dive industry, but I do know the future that I in vision for my shop (a successful one). No matter what it takes, I will continue to put 110% into my shop until it goes under, even if it means I have to offer services that no ones even heard of (like teaching the Outer Space PADI Distinctive Specialty Diver, jokingly of course).
Side note: The part in reference to Diver's Supply was not meant in any way disrespect or any way condescending towards them, it was merely used as an example. Diver Supply is a very large retailer both brick and mortar and online, and I believe currently have 3 shops on the east coast. They have been very successful and are a prime example of how shops can have store and online sales. As far as them switching from PADI to SDI, is merely hear say from current customers that we share in our area. I wish them all the best.