No. You obviously have a different take on this issue from mine, so this will be my final post on it. But, my point was that 1st stage failure is POSSIBLE. ANY equipment failure is possible. In my training over many decades as a pilot, I learned that redundancy was the proven solution to equipment failures, which could and would occur.
I could care less about probability theory on it - it's POSSIBLE. That's the point. A viable solution is an RAS, i.e., a pony. That's all. You can make all the counter-arguments on it that you want to, but the facts remain.
What the experience level of the diver is has little to nothing to do with the reality that an RAS gives the diver a new place to go, if his "old" place goes tango uniform.