First Bill I will agree with you on one of your first points, there are A LOT of things you can do besides SCUBA diving. All those things you listed and then some can produce a lifetime of fulfilling experiences. No one ever said that SCUBA diving was all there ever was and all there ever will be... for you. Now for some of us it might be different. As a SCUBA Diving Instructor I am one of these people where SCUBA diving means a little more to me than other people. I'm not going to sit back and tell you diving is safe because I can't. I tell all my students the same thing. If you don't do it right you can die. Plain and simple. I have personally seen three deaths during my 14 years as a diver. I was not responsible for any of these divers in the water or on the boat but I was still in the area or also diving from the same boat. The fact is people die scuba diving. Now I am going to disagree with a couple of your points and add a little info you asked about.
The dive industry shares some of the blame. The industry as a whole continues to claim it’s a safe sport. But really, we do not know how safe diving is – in part because we don’t know how many dives have been taken. Not even that basic information is available. (I wonder why? The cynical part of me has an answer…
At a minimum, LDS’s could count the number of fills as a pretty close approximation of the number of dives. Also, it is clear to me that the vast majority of dive operators operate in a “You should be OK” mode – no significant check on skills required for a dive. Too often, there is not realistic information about the skills required for a dive from the operator. We have certainly fell victim to this mentality on more than one occasion.
One of my biggest pet peeves about society today is increasingly pointing the blame somewhere else. People are taking less and less accountability for themselves. Every divers knows when they don't feel comfortable. Maybe it's the ocean conditions. Maybe it's diving to a depth they don't feel comfortable diving at. Or maybe it's what prompted your debate, they fear getting hurt. Divers know their personal limits better than ANY shop. A diver knows if they haven't been practicing their skills and they need to be honest with themselves first before they can be honest with the dive shop. Every diver we get through our facility we ask them when their last dive was. If it has been longer than 1 year we give them the option to do a refresher of skills and a shallow refresher shore dive (for a small price $60USD). I have had 1 person choose this offer. Every other diver has said, "No, I'll be OK."
There is no data that tells us what the incremental risk of diving is. I can find my risk of a heart attack based on may age (5.2% over the next 10 years) but I cannot find the incremental risk of suffering death from the 5% chance because I am underwater (I suspect it is nearly 100%). And I cannot find the incremental risk of having a heart attack or other medical events due to the various challenges of the sport.
This information is available if you ask the right people. Each year Divers Alert Network (DAN) puts out a document that examines dive accidents and their causes as well as reported dive deaths and every few years (Around 5 years) PADI also releases a document looking at dive accidents and fatalities. A DAN report from 2010 states a dive death occurs in 1 out of every 211,864 dives.
I recently saw a statistic that said 55% of all scuba fatalities were caused by a medical condition, mostly related to the heart. Which could be taken as they had just as great of chance dying while running a treadmill or having sex.
I ran some numbers from my personal dive experience and came up with a number a little more conservative than DAN (1 in every 120,000 dives) based on my personal experience with charter dive boats, average # of divers per boat and # of deaths I have witnessed over the years.
And, as has been well-documented on these boards, the certification requirements are in drastic need of repair. Good courses depend too much on the instructor, and the certifications awarded do not relate to the skills required for the dives offered by the industry (case in point: AOW). And usually, no one fails a cert course (except Fundies as far as I know). I am a teacher myself – I know what happens when you have a system where no one fails!
First I have failed more than 20 people from SCUBA. Failed is the wrong term. I have had students who didn't want to invest additional money for additional course time to work on issues that would not allow them to pass their open water course. Most of these students were not water people and they were taking the course for all the wrong reasons (sometimes I think I should be paid as a therapist rather than as a dive instructor) and decided other activities were for them. I have had a handful of students who just needed a little bit more work to complete their OW cert. PADI has a great certification called the SCUBA Diver certification that is for people who just aren't quite comfortable diving on their own yet. This certification acknowledges the student needs additional training and experience to complete their OW cert course but allows them to dive with a DM or Inst under easy shallow conditions to work on gaining that experience.
So the industry has put these options in place for Dive Instructors to not push everyone through. Now as a teacher yourself than you also probably have colleges who put in more effort than others in your profession. Dive instruction is the same way. Some instructors are more dedicated but 99% of them are still teaching the necessary skills the necessary way for a student to be able to make an open water dive with a buddy in conditions similar to the environment they were certified in and experienced level. Meaning a diver straight out of OW in Hawaii should not go straight to making a 100' dive in British Colombia as their first or even their 10th dive out of class. This is where the AOW class is suppose to pick up and help divers make additional experience dives under supervision of a dive professional to gain experience.
Maybe we’re just not the type of people for diving. We sure tried – we bought nearly all of our own equipment. We took several training courses. We did a number of pool dives to develop our skills. I’m OK with mechanical things, but it’s not my favorite thing to be doing in my free time. Emily is much less interested in taking care of the equipment. And physically, we’re OK, but neither of us is really the athlete type. Meaning that maybe we have more “events” than the average “good diver” simply because our mind-body coordination isn’t anything special (one way or the other). We are probably more prone to panic than the average “good diver”. Age plays into that, too. We’re not 35 any more. I am being honest about my limitations.
It is great you are being honest about your limitations, this is why most dive accidents happen, when divers are not honest. Diving is just like anything else. The more time and energy you put into the activity the more comfortable and proficient you become. Then it's up to the diver to decide how reckless they wish to dive. Remember there are a lot of things you can do to lessen the risk of diving.
Always dive with a buddy
Dive in conditions you're comfortable in (You already mentioned being uncomfortable in low vis)
Dive a depth you are comfortable diving. As the body ages it doesn't function as efficiently as it once did. Off gassing becomes for taxing on the body. Besides there are lots of amazing dives no deeper than 40-50'.
Dive nitrox to lessen then amount of nitrogen on-gassed
Make a safety stop on every dive and ascend slowly from your safety stop
Don't breath you tank too low, surface with 700psi instead of the recommended 500psi to in an emergency you have 50% more air in reserve.
Practice emergency procedures with your dive buddy. Once a month is best. Practice in shallower cold water will make any warm water emergecy easier to approach
Stay Fit to lessen the risk of a major (or minor) health issue
Get a Yearly Physical with a doctor experienced with scuba diving. If your doctor says don't dive then don't dive.
Keep your mask on your face and your reg in your mouth until you are back on the boat or shore
Use the tool dive charters give you. Use the descent line. Use the current line at the back of the boat. There is nothing more frustrating than watching divers fight currents on the surface and going up and down from the boat when they don't have to. Use them and stay relaxed.
I have a friend who is an instructor in her 20s, so she has a fair amount of experience and dive education but still chooses to dive recklessly making bounce dives to 160' on a single tank of air. Makes me cringe, but isn't going to make me give up diving, just as I have another friend who used to street race... didn't cause me to give up driving.
At this point only you know how much risk you wish to take in your life. Good luck with you decision. At this point if you already have this doubt I hear golf can be very fun.