How safe is MX?+

[lindenbruce]

The DTO's are everywhere. But the closer you are to the US/Mexico border the more dangerous it is. But no place is totally safe wherever you go even here in the states. It is a matter of being smart with your choices of where to go and when to go, being aware of your surroundings, and not getting off the beaten path. Stay in well lit areas at night and stay with crowds. Even Cozumel had a DTO related homicide at one of their resorts about four or five years ago. If you see a lot of federal Police officers with M16's you are prolly going to be safe. But if all you see are the local police officers or none at all, you really need to get out of that area. Because the DTO's will have a strangle hold on those areas. B.

 

[WheelsUSN]

Forgiving a police bribe and/or government inspection here and there (understand that you DO have to plan for these things when driving), I've had nothing but good experiences and can't wait to go back!

I've good experiences in many countries I've been to, several of which were more dangerous than Mexico. However since this thread tries to use statistics to support the relative safety of Mexico I think that the origin of the statistics is relevant. In a country where you need to plan for police bribes because they are so common, can you trust the crime rates based on reported crimes or do those corrupt police fail to file reports about crimes if they don't feel that its worth their time?

---------- Post added September 27th, 2013 at 10:49 PM ----------

But if all you see are the local police officers or none at all, you really need to get out of that area. Because the DTO's will have a strangle hold on those areas. B.

Another reason to lack confidence in official statistics based on crime reports filed by the police.

 

[pocky21]

In a country where you need to plan for police bribes because they are so common, can you trust the crime rates based on reported crimes or do those corrupt police fail to file reports about crimes if they don't feel that its worth their time?

Therein lies the problem - you can't. I wouldn't trust a municipal cop for anything, and the federal troops only slightly more. But the moment you walk into a taqueria and the owner, who remembers you from last season, jumps out of his chair and welcomes you with open arms, despite the fact you can barely manage to say "caramello" - you begin to realize there's a silver lining.

There seems to be a stigma that death squads roam the countryside, hide out in churches, and look for easy American targets. This is far from the truth. The border towns and outskirts of the tourist towns are indeed pretty rough, and often talked about because most Americans who venture there are willfully ignorant or just looking for trouble. The federal checkpoints, however safe they may be, are almost assured to double my blood pressure. Once you get into the interior though, it's a vibrant and magical place filled with absolutely wonderful people.

(disclaimer - my experience is limited to Sonora, Chihuahua, and the northern part of Baja California, I know very little about the Southern parts)

 

[vladimir]

In general, homicide rates are considered the most reliable of crime statistics, and are often used as a proxy for crime in general. The thinking is that it is easy to fudge the figures on, say, assault, but in most places a dead body demands accounting. That said, those UNODC (the Wiki source) statistics rely on data supplied by the police agencies. We had a case of fudged data in a precinct in NYC not too long ago, so the incentives to under-report are pretty obvious. But there are no homicides in NYC—and very few in any other city in a developed nation—that go unaccounted for, I would think.

I downloaded the data from the UNODC in spreadsheet form, and the Mexican data is not included, nor is the source cited. An internet search was similarly fruitless. Articles that do mention the Mexican murder rate all seem to rely on that poorly footnoted UNODC data.

That's about all the effort I'm willing to devote. Mexico's a really long flight from here anyway, and I'd probably fly over Raja Ampat, PNG, etc., to get there.

 

[DandyDon]

I wish theYucatan peninsula was a more reasonable driving distance from the Texas Panhandle, and I didn't have to drive thru a state on the warning list. Too much Texas, then too much coastal hiway. Such an interesting area of jungles, Mayans, Mexicans, ruins, etc. But it's 2186 miles one-way just to the car ferry at Playa del Carmen, so I guess I'll keep flying to Cozumel and renting cars on the mainland to explore...

 

[Mike]

Drove down the highway from Cancun to Playa this summer. There were at least 3 permanent police check point/road blocks that were not there the last time I drove that road. It was to say the least unnerving and jarring to suddenly find yourself at traffic halting road blocks consisting of concrete guard structures in the middle of the road and dozens of machine gun toteing police where before the dozens of times on this road over the years it was just a highway. Something changed.

 

[DandyDon]

Drug running is picking up in the Yucatan peninsula, I think. With all of the problems of the Mexican border states and the US pressure on our side of the border, the cartels are interested in a softer conduit. With cruise boats, planes, supply ships, and such already traveling to the states of Yucatan & Quintana Roo, they're looking to blend in with the traffic - and establish control centers in both states. Divers don't go to the state of Yucatan, but many other tourists do - by boat & plane.

 

[Brewone0to]

just check the US consolate site for most updated activities. Plan accordingly.

 

[AZTinman]

Cartel activity tends to shift in response to law enforcement and military actions. A couple of years ago, it was fairly common to see federal police and military troops cruising the roads in Sonora in pickups with mounted and manned heavy machine guns. This past year, the pickups with machine guns were not as numerous. Of course, this does not mean the cartels have left and there are no safety concerns.

I know quite a few people who drive into Mexico frequently. Some drive to dive in Mexico a couple of weekends a month and they've done it for years without ever encountering any problems. Again, this does not mean that there are no safety concerns with travel in Mexico. It does illustrate that people who exercise good judgement and avoid engaging in activities and/or travel to places which pose high levels of risk can reduce the level of risk.

When one considers statistics involving violent crime in Mexico, it's important to look at who's getting killed. Are the majority of killings random, or focused on people who are involved with cartel activity? Four years ago one of my employees who visits her family in Mexico frequently was on a bus enroute to Mazatlan. The bus was stopped by a group of armed men. They boarded the bus, grabbed a guy, dragged him off the bus, and shot him. The guys who boarded the bus were obviously looking for the guy they killed. None of the other passengers were harmed.

-AZTinman

 

[DandyDon]

Cartel activity tends to shift in response to law enforcement and military actions. A couple of years ago, it was fairly common to see federal police and military troops cruising the roads in Sonora in pickups with mounted and manned heavy machine guns. This past year, the pickups with machine guns were not as numerous. Of course, this does not mean the cartels have left and there are no safety concerns.

I know quite a few people who drive into Mexico frequently. Some drive to dive in Mexico a couple of weekends a month and they've done it for years without ever encountering any problems. Again, this does not mean that there are no safety concerns with travel in Mexico. It does illustrate that people who exercise good judgement and avoid engaging in activities and/or travel to places which pose high levels of risk can reduce the level of risk.

When one considers statistics involving violent crime in Mexico, it's important to look at who's getting killed. Are the majority of killings random, or focused on people who are involved with cartel activity? Four years ago one of my employees who visits her family in Mexico frequently was on a bus enroute to Mazatlan. The bus was stopped by a group of armed men. They boarded the bus, grabbed a guy, dragged him off the bus, and shot him. The guys who boarded the bus were obviously looking for the guy they killed. None of the other passengers were harmed.

-AZTinman

From Arizona, yeah - safer! A FB friend drove out there recently from New Mexico, but made sure they avoided Chihauhau, waiting until they got to Arizona to cross into Sonora. See map below.

And your bus story is one example. There have been other bus stories that didn't go as well.