Maybe the high dropout rate is due to the fact that the training standards have declined over the years and students aren't getting the same quality education they did in the past.
I don't see that training standards have declined over the years. Which standards exactly are you mentioning... and how have they declined?
I did the PADI OW course more 20 years ago, and it comprised the same skills, drills and number of modules (theory/confined/open water) that it does today.
This then makes for uncomfortable new divers.
Most divers are uncomfortable when new. It takes some time to ingrain skills, develop instinctive muscle memory and become truly proficient with buoyancy etc. Thus, there is....and always has been.... an expectation that divers need to maintain practice after qualification - allowing experience to 'polish' the basic skill-set they receive on entry-level training. That's not a new phenomenon - it's always been that way.
What I see now is that many shops push divers through OW in a weekend.
Given the course syllabus, that's nothing shocking. A few modules of theory, which can be self-studied, 5 short modules in a pool - just a handful of skills on each module... and 4 open water dives. It is a matter of
training hours. Does it matter whether those training hours are completed in 2 working days, or artificially spread over a longer period?
A ten-day open water course, wouldn't expose the student to any more training - it'd just be the same training hours diluted over more days.
Two 8-hour days? Four 4-hour days? Eight 2-hour days?
Is that really a basis for making a case on course standard decline? I think not.
Again, it's always been that way. Differences in course structuring tend to be regional, not historical. In locations where time isn't a factor (i.e. student learns at home, one session per week over multiple weeks) then a longer course is typical... longer in duration, but not in training hours. In holiday locations, where people have more free time to devote to training, then shorter courses are typical... shorter in duration, but not in training hours.
Not a lot of time or dives to get a basic comfort level.
Never has been... nothing new.
From my experience, it takes ~20 dives for a novice diver to establish a real sense of comfort in scuba. The emphasis, now as always, has been on post-qualification experience to develop that comfort. Outside of scientific, military or commercial diving, I don't believe there has ever been an entry-level scuba course that's provided 20 open water dives before qualification...
Add to that the poor economy. When the new diver finds out just how expensive travel etc. is they drop out.
I don't see how people wouldn't know "how expensive travel etc. is..." before enrolling on a scuba course. That's fairly generic knowledge, available to the whole population. Most divers learn scuba whilst on vacation - so that tends to illustrate that they already know the costs of travel
As Stunaep said in the original post; divers need to be aware that continued education is vital for developing increased comfort and enjoyment - to make scuba an activity they can really enjoy. The solution isn't to extend the parameters of entry-level training - that'd simply inflate the front-end costs (both time and commitment) and serve to deter more people from investigating scuba diving.
I've not seen any statistics about qualified diver 'drop-out'. IF such statistics existed, then I think there's a fairly rational explanation for rising drop-out rates. That explanation is, quite simply, that there is an increasing number of divers qualifying per year. Of those, a percentage won't actively continue with the hobby. They won't "get the bug".
The availability of cheap, accessible training, shifts activity exposure from a small handful of 'dedicated' divers, towards a wider spectrum of people who are just happy to 'give it a try'.
Back in the "old days" (whenever that mystical time was), diving was inaccessible to most - without a proliferation of agencies, training centers and instructors. It wasn't accessible to a 'mass market'. If someone was passionately interested in scuba, then they had to make considerable effort and commitment at the outset to source and achieve qualification. That tended to ensure that only 'committed and determined' people.... serious divers... got qualified. Having made that effort and commitment, it is reasonable that they would be far less likely to drop-out.
With a proliferation of scuba training, just about everyone has some exposure to the availability of scuba courses. That training is quick, cheap and relatively easy - demanding little commitment or investment. Consequently, far more people will engage in the training speculatively or even as a one-off experience.
As the saying goes... "easy come - easy go".
I don't think it's a bad thing. More people have exposure to scuba diving, the underwater world and environmental issues etc. Many of those don't develop a passion for it and drift away. Some of them get smitten and, to varying degrees and frequency, make the activity a part of their life.
Making scuba courses longer, or more intense - demanding more commitment from divers at the outset, will lower drop-out rates - because less people would take training at all. That accomplishes no beneficial gain - except to further a clique of 'exclusivity' amongst divers, which is a bad thing IMHO.
