Hurrcane Ida

[jasoninbtr]

That is going to be quite a drive! Google maps doesn't even know how to get there....

 

[1KWIK_69]

That is going to be quite a drive! Google maps doesn't even know how to get there....

All I can say is I hope he brings along a little extra cash to bribe the cops when he gets pulled over. I've heard stories of people just driving from Playa to Chichen Itza or Coba being pulled over for nothing and having to pay the "fine" right there. Fortunately that didn't happen to us last year. It's a long way from Matamoros to Playa through a whole lot of small towns.

 

[Hawkeye Mark]

I have never driven to Cozumel. I know Jeannie at Blue Angel drives it from St Louis. What a haul. When I was young I drove from Houston to El Salvador. Never to be repeated.

 

[BTravlin]

No worries as they've made the drive a number of times now.

 

[ScubaTony]

Just drove my motorcycle down from Raynosa on the Texas border. It was a great trip. Never got stopped for anything and the roads were in great shape this time. Done the trip 6 times now without incident. I really love road trips in Mexico.

 

[DandyDon]

Port's been closed in cancun for the past couple of days as well... looks like it'll stay that way for the rest of the weekend as well. But it's not a hurricane... it's a tropical storm.. according to the National Hurricane Center, max sustained winds are 65 mph, which keeps it in TS status (at least for another 5mph). stay safe everyone!

It briefly made hurricane status before it landed on Nicaragua, then lost power over land as it flooded there. I try to help post these in the Storm Watch forum. It's a T.Depression now, back at sea, expected to build to Tropical Storm again.

click to enlarge: ​

Did someone mention the swamp known as Louisiana? Looks like it will probly be spared.

I just Hope Mexicana will fly into Cancun Saturday afternoon. Will bring a bucket for the wife on the ferry ride to Coz.

They have barf bags on the ferries, don't they? 13 mph NNE winds forecast for Saturday afternoon.

That is going to be quite a drive! Google maps doesn't even know how to get there....

Google Maps has got to be the worst embarrassment for that organization. They showed a bridge from PDC to San Miguel up to a few months ago. I've learned to not trust them in the States, either.

Online maps of Mexico are somewhat limited but available. AAA has some decent ones for that trip.

Right click to open in new tab, then CTRL+++ for larger

Available larger at http://mexicochannel.net/maps/mexico_maps_bigmexico.gif
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[jasoninbtr]

The only thing worse than Google Maps is the time the GPS in my car tried to take me across a closed ferry to get across a river in South Louisiana. Needless to say my wife was pissed!

Looks like Pensacola and PCB might get blasted. Hopefully Ida doesn't pick up any steam crossing the gulf.

But it looks like she is getting ready to go through the warmest part of her journey. Northern Gulf waters don't look too hot.

Jason

 

[Unclebuckethead]

My wife and I drove down from Dallas about 3 months ago. It was an amazing trip. We were stopped at the check points, but a smile, cold coke and a pack of cigaretts go a long way. We did not get searched once. We did get stopped in the city of Veracruz and payed a small "fine" on the side of road. No big deal. We expected it at some point. We are going to make the trip again next summer. I would highly recommend as it was a wonderful trip.
Winds are calm now and no rain here. I do not think it is going to be a big deal, but we shall see. Going to be exciting, our first storm as residents here.

Peace,
Dennis

 

[DandyDon]

After leaving land headed north for the Cozumel vicinity, Ida has been strengthening and is expected to make Cat-1 by it's close call with Cozumel and Cuba, then continue north to the US as a Tropical Storm...

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However close and strong it may be to Coz, it looks like the east side will take the brunt and the channel side enjoying some shelter. Current local forecasts for Coz Cozumel, Mexico Forecast : Weather Underground show hourly wind forecasts great than 20 mph only during the wee hours of Monday morning, but remaining pretty strong thru the morning...

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From Dr. Masters: Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:19 PM GMT on November 07, 2009
Tropical Storm Ida is slowly strengthening, as it heads north-northwest towards an encounter with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ida's heavy thunderstorms are expanding in area, and the cloud tops are cooling, indicating that the updrafts in the storm are growing stronger and pushing higher into the atmosphere. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain moderate through Sunday night. SSTs are a warm 29°C, and the total ocean heat content is over 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for intensification. The rains have ended over Nicaragua and Honduras, and Ida dumped up to eleven inches of rain along the coast in Nicaragua, causing flooding that damaged thousands of homes, but caused no deaths or injuries as of yet.

The forecast for Ida
The moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots should allow for continued slow but steady intensification of Ida through Sunday afternoon, as long as the center remains over water. I give Ida a medium (30 - 50% chance) of reaching Category 1 hurricane strength before arriving at the Yucatan, since the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is so high. We'll have a better idea of Ida's current strength early this afternoon, when the Hurricane Hunters have had time to investigate the storm.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 46% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. The odds of receiving hurricane force winds are given as 3%. Given the current trend in organization of Ida, these numbers should probably be bumped up to about 60% and 5%, respectively.

Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.

I'll have an update later today, or on Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

 

[lamont]

current wind probabilities are only 34% for tropical storm force winds for cozumel in the next 24h.

we're probably having worse weather in seattle than what coz is going to get hit with... thursday night we were getting 35+ mph winds with gusts to 55 mph (at Boeing Field) and it looks like we're going to get hit with that again tonight and again on monday...