Philippine storm watch

[clgsamson]

for this week October 20-25.....tsk could be the 3rd consecutive devastating storm this year. It is stronger than Ketsana (Ondoy) and Parma (Pepeng).

"Lupit" in Filipino/Tagalog means "Cruel" in english.

 

[drbill]

The PI are sure getting hammered this season. Does anyone know if this is related to the El Nino warming conditions at that end of the Pacific? I would assume so. The hurricane seaon on the US East Coast has been very mild.

 

[Antarctic-Adventurer]

I can't comment on whether the surge of storms is due to El Niño warming or not but one can check the latest Typhoon positions at this site:

Japan Meteorological Agency | Tropical Cyclone Information [click the storm on the map for a close up of the predicted storm track).

The Philippines generally gets hit a lot every year but the last few weeks have been unusually bad. I am due to fly into Manila on the 24th October so naturally I am keeping a close eye on this one too. There is a chance it may just miss the Philippines though and hit Taiwan instead as its track has gradually been changing northwards... unpredictable though.

For those really interested in tropical cyclone Typhoon path history see this huge global map showing data from 1985-2005:

File:Global tropical cyclone tracks-edit2.jpg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[boljakool]

hope it doesn't go anywhere near Anilao this weekend.

 

[World Wide Diver]

Does anyone know if this is related to the El Nino warming conditions at that end of the Pacific? I would assume so.

Yes it is, and this was forcast 3 months ago if you follow the En Nino posted info. Sea temps in the Western equitorial Pacific are +0.7 to +1.0C above normal in the top 300meters (1000 feet US).

There is a chance it may just miss the Philppines though and hit Taiwan instead as it track has gradually been changing northwards... unpredictable though.

This typhoon will hit Luzon with high winds and drop 500mm+ rain. As per OP's words, it will be worse than Ondoy and Pepeng. As PI's don't have good radar/forcasting equipment it's hard to make a very accurate forcast and warn the most vulnerable.

I just hope that the various dams to be affected have had their water levels reduced so as the government does not drown thousands through 'panic release' of water like before.

 

[rab1412000]

darnit theres one that my come in this all saints.
hopefully it veers and does not gain strenght.
no name yet and winds of only 55 kph and still 2800kms from the visayas

this should be stickied btw

 

[World Wide Diver]

Great that Lupit changed couse at the last second and moved away from the Philippines.

But, more bad news. Tropical depression 23W is headed this way and, though a long way off, the long range forecasts are not good.

See http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309.gif

 

[Genomik]

Wow, my girlfriends dads family is directly on that storm track in Gulf of Lingayen. Usually brunt hits mountains on east coast I think so maybe west coast only hit pretty hard. I hope.

 

[World Wide Diver]