we cannot assume that a newer airport in Raja = instant mass dive tourism.
I agree Gee. If we take Ambon for instance, where they have glorious diving along with a quite good airport, great flight connections, more than 20 flights a week from Jakarta, planning to get regular flights from Singapore... Is Ambon seeing more diving visitors... uh... within a year at least I haven't seen any changes. There's one upmarket dive operator with regular divers and the other less expensive one which is struggling (reason why, I dunno, marketing issue maybe...).
I would tend to think upmarket diving is an "offer driven" market, what really attracts divers are the diving infrastructures not really the ease to get to : it's quite easy to get to Labuan Bajo, cheap enough, yet the dive centres are so so, I cannot raise a big landbased operator. Raja Ampat is a pain to go to, expensive, though we all know names of at least 2 or 3 landbased resorts. So it's not about the transports, "it's the dive centre economy, stupid!"
Btw, you know what
really increases road traffic : a new supermall, hypermarket or call what you want... I was in Ambon 4 months ago, the day they opened the new mall, gosh it was a nightmare, ferries from outer islands were full, hotel rooms were completely booked... and 3hrs car ride to get from downtown Ambon to my hotel, which takes usually 30mns!!!! Except me, no divers in these cars though.
I say : death to both mass and marketed consuming.