The Swine Flu thing...

[MMM]

Canada has now withdrawn its travel advisory to Mexico...not that I agreed with it in the first place. and regrettably it comes after Air Canada cancelled my flight.

 

[lamont]

Maybe y'all missed the one I posted earlier that suggested the path may have been from US California to Mexico...?

And the combining of human, swine, and fowl flu strains has long been recognized as a problem, especially in China where poor farm families live on the same pond used by the pigs, ducks, and geese. Mentioned that a few pages ago.

I also mentioned the previous cases of H1N1 swine influenza infections in humans.

Also that Newsweek article had a lot of comments in it about the possibility of another reassortment with other circulating virus strains which make it more lethal, more virulent or pick up immunity to Tamiflu from the circulating H1N1 human influenza that has already acquired that immunity. That is why I've been repeatedly saying that we need to watch this virus to see how it evolves.

And, on the basis of the CDC flu doc who estimated 100,000 infections in the US, there should be about 1,000 deaths (on the basis of the typical 0.1% influenza death rate). Since we only know about a handful of them that means that there are about two orders of magnitude of deaths which are not being laboratory confirmed -- we'll probably only find out about them much later after looking at historical upticks in ILI and deaths due to pneumonia.

Local news just reported 410 confirmed cases in WA state...

 

[lamont]

dup..

 

[DandyDon]

dup..

We really should have 60 seconds to delete a post. :silly:

The Flu Tracker site is keeping talling, altho it was slow to update at times - leaving the Yuc-Pen off for a while even after confirmed. Maybe they're not familiar with the Mexican states and don't have the resources to be that exact? The US is about to catch up to Mexico in numbers altho not density.

Interesting area of hot spots on the US map along the border west of El Paso, and what is Washington state doing with such a concentration...?

 

[lamont]

Interesting area of hot spots on the US map along the border west of El Paso, and what is Washington state doing with such a concentration...?

dunno... population density along with colder temperatures?

oh, some of it may just be reporting as well... seattle has a lot of biomedical companies, a lot of biomed research with a lot of cross pollination between public and private sectors and generally good medical facilities... i imagine that harborview probably has a lot more access to PCR facilities than a lot of towns in idaho or wyoming do...

 

[1KWIK_69]

Also that Newsweek article had a lot of comments in it about the possibility of another reassortment with other circulating virus strains which make it more lethal, more virulent or pick up immunity to Tamiflu from the circulating H1N1 human influenza that has already acquired that immunity. That is why I've been repeatedly saying that we need to watch this virus to see how it evolves.

Not trying to pick an argument here but that's about as one sided a comment as I've heard yet.

Newsweek points out the worst case scenario of the virus mutating to a more lethal strain but totally leaves out the just as likely scenario that it could mutate into a less dangerous strain that could be less resistant to Tamiflu.

Have you ever heard the story of Ebola Resden? Everyone thinks of ebola as a non airborn virus with a 90% mortality rate and yet, the one time it mutated to be airborn and made it to America, the symptoms of that strain were no worse than a mild cold to humans. That particular mutation that made it airborn and still lethal to monkeys also made it a whimp where humans are concerned. Scientists cannot tell you what mutations will take place or how they will affect people. It's all a guessing game.

 

[lamont]

Not trying to pick an argument here but that's about as one sided a comment as I've heard yet.

You are just hearing what you want to hear in order to pick a fight.

I said _possibility_.

And your counter-example makes a far from certain case that it will definitely involve into a less-virulent, less-lethal form. A counter-counter-example (which is far more relevant) is the 1918 influenza which came in several waves of increasing severity rather than decreasing.

And I would actually place bets on decreasing severity and virulence as it evolves along with the human immune system -- but that is not a sure bet, and we should always maintain a partially hedged position.

 

[1KWIK_69]

You are just hearing what you want to hear in order to pick a fight.

I said _possibility_.

And your counter-example makes a far from certain case that it will definitely involve into a less-virulent, less-lethal form. A counter-counter-example (which is far more relevant) is the 1918 influenza which came in several waves of increasing severity rather than decreasing.

And I would actually place bets on decreasing severity and virulence as it evolves along with the human immune system -- but that is not a sure bet, and we should always maintain a partially hedged position.

It's funny how Newsweek chose to say there's a possibility it will become more lethal and failed to say there's just as much possibility it will become less lethal or it might not even have any change at all. While scientists are busy guessing, I'll be guessing that doom and gloom sells more magazines.

Why don't they all just say, Scientists don't have a clue whether or will get worse, and the best defense is washing your hands, not picking your nose, not touching your eyes and not putting your fingers in your mouth? Purel is a great safety net if people aren't near a sink and soap. They make tiny little pocket sized bottles just for that.

 

[DandyDon]

It's funny how Newsweek chose to say there's a possibility it will become more lethal and failed to say there's just as much possibility it will become less lethal or it might not even have any change at all. While scientists are busy guessing, I'll be guessing that doom and gloom sells more magazines.

Why don't they all just say, Scientists don't have a clue whether or will get worse, and the best defense is washing your hands, not picking your nose, not touching your eyes and not putting your fingers in your mouth? Purel is a great safety net if people aren't near a sink and soap. They make tiny little pocket sized bottles just for that.

I think you're more or less right there.

A virus does better in the wild if it doesn't kill the host off too fast like SARS did and the primary purpose of any living being is to live & reproduce. Yet, a virus is such a sloppy, simple life form that it screws up along those lines.

I've gotten better at sterilizing my hands trying to get into the practice. Don't want to live in a bubble and avoid all exposures, but this will be a good year to reduce.

 

[salty_dog_68]

Oh, contraire dandy don. Viruses are not sloppy at all. They are very efficient opportunistic machines that have evolved over millions of years, much like the shark.