The Swine Flu thing...

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Ok I meant seemingly failed for now. You're right. It's certainly not vanished and the second wave in the fall is typically the worst. Brazil and Argentina are indeed reporting cases.

Not gone in the US either. from: Swine flu cases double in the US
33 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AFP) The United States announced Friday that the number of swine flu cases within its borders had doubled almost overnight, while the death toll in Mexico inched up.
American health authorities said the number of confirmed cases was now 1,639 in 43 states. The figure had been put at 896 only on Thursday.
Spokesman of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dave Daigle, said the jump "does not reflect a speed up of the epidemic" as more and more places were now able to test for the virus.
In Mexico, the epicenter of the worldwide epidemic, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said the (A)H1N1 flu virus was on the wane. The last death on May 4 had not been from a new infection, he said.

UK still reporting of course, Asia, Oceania.
 
Well how about instead of dwelling on it and continuing the hyped up fear and panack, why don't we put it on the back burner, go on about our lives as normal and just get used to practicing washing our hands and covering our mouths when we cough, which everyone should do all the time anyway, whether or not there's a nasty bug going around.

If this thing makes major headlines in the southern hemisphere over the next few months, or we see the beginning of a second wave in the fall, then we should think about taking further precautions. Until either of those things happen, I'm not going to worry about it. I have too many real issues to deal with to be worrying about something that at least for now doesn't affect me.
 
Well, I think we should all be able to agree now that this is not a "problem" that is confined to Mexico.

With that said, no reason to discriminate travel destinations - especially those that still have no confirmed cases. So even if Lamont's theory of 10 unreported for every 1 reported is true....Cozumel is in pretty good shape since we have 0 reported cases here!
 
According to the CDC website the flu last season (not the swine variety) hospitalized over 200,000, 36,000 died and another 300,000 were sickened in the US. Isn't it strange how we didnt hear any media hype over those statistics? I think it is great to be informed and aware. I don't worry about being involved in a car wreck every time I drive. Id rather be diving though!
 
According to the CDC website the flu last season (not the swine variety) hospitalized over 200,000, 36,000 died and another 300,000 were sickened in the US. Isn't it strange how we didnt hear any media hype over those statistics? I think it is great to be informed and aware. I don't worry about being involved in a car wreck every time I drive. Id rather be diving though!
Haha, hype you think? I suppose those numbers didn't make news for a number of reasons...
The seasonal outbreaks were expected and vaccines were offered;

The losses were mostly in the more vulnerable, not healthy young adults like this killer;

And this one really could have been a hell of a lot worse if like other new, late spring outbreaks. We're very fortunate that it wasn't, for various reasons.​
The biggest problem with this one was lack of information and action, and fortunately that seems to have changed. I'm glad to read that the health pros are still diligently watching this and making whatever preparations seem prudent as it's not gone and could get a lot worse, but hoping for the best.

Yes Christi, I think we can "agree now that this is not a "problem" that is confined to Mexico. " Looks like we just need the airlines to restore flights, and I am sure the US carriers will with increased demand. There was significant reason for caution for a while there I think and ignoring the mushrooming risk would have been foolish; glad that it subsided.

Is Canada still boycotting?

You know, it would probly be fine with most to move this thread from this forum to the Non-Diving forum - ya think...???
 
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I'd still like to hear the numbers regarding the deaths in Mexico compared to poverty. If mostly the poor died, I'd take a guess that it's because they lacked the money to see a doctor and probably don't get regular flu vaccinations. There are some that are reporting that since the H1N1 from 1977 is included in the yearly vaccine, it may afford some protection against this one. That would explain why the only American death not counting the sick Mexican child that died on this side of the border was a pregnant woman with undisclosed other cronic health issues. This flu so far hasn't caused any major problems to any young otherwise healthy American adults other than normal flu symptoms. That's not to say it can't get more lethal if it changes slightly before next fall.
 
I'd still like to hear the numbers regarding the deaths in Mexico compared to poverty. If mostly the poor died, I'd take a guess that it's because they lacked the money to see a doctor and probably don't get regular flu vaccinations. There are some that are reporting that since the H1N1 from 1977 is included in the yearly vaccine, it may afford some protection against this one. That would explain why the only American death not counting the sick Mexican child that died on this side of the border was a pregnant woman with undisclosed other cronic health issues. This flu so far hasn't caused any major problems to any young otherwise healthy American adults other than normal flu symptoms. That's not to say it can't get more lethal if it changes slightly before next fall.

Flu vaccinations and catching the flu have the same effect, either way you wind up with antibodies to the virus. Unless Mexicans don't normally ever get stick from the flu they should have antibodies similar to your average vaccinated Mexican.

(although if that's the difference, I'm really screwed because I usually don't get a flu shot).

There was suspicion that higher death rates had to do with not seeking prompt medical treatment which may have some correlation to poverty or culture.

We also don't have enough information to know how deadly this is compared to normal influenza in the vulnerable population. It seems like about every 10 posts someone else quotes the statistics yet again that 36,000 people die every year from influenza -- which means that if this bug is completely ignorable in the healthy adult population it can still kill 36,000 people in the US just by being 2x more lethal in the vulnerable population.

In fact the very reason *why* the authorities are concerned about new strains of influenza is that it is normally very virulent and deadly, and it doesn't take much of an uptick to add up to a lot of excess deaths compared to the background rate.
 
Flu vaccinations and catching the flu have the same effect, either way you wind up with antibodies to the virus. Unless Mexicans don't normally ever get stick from the flu they should have antibodies similar to your average vaccinated Mexican.

That's not quite accurate. When you catch the flu, whatever strain you have, you build up antibodies for that and only that strain. The vaccinations they make every year are a coctail of different strains of the flu combined which cause you to make antibodies for all of them. Ever since the last swine flu scare in 1977 they've added that version of the H1N1 to the coctail. Catching the regular human flu will give you no antibodies or resistance what's so ever to the so called swine flu. The H1N1 strain in the already used vaccine may only give partial protection against this new (A)H1N1 however. I guess partial is better than none.
 
I've been on a few national conference calls in the past couple of days with medical health experts and health sector leaders/managers. I'm summarizing this and stating in layman's language, But generally speaking we're starting to stand down on this particular outbreak in terms of death worries and 24/7 alert (yay!). For now. We will continue enhanced tracking and monitoring (without the high profile media profile/opportunities, given the recent documented low risk of death outside Mexico). Based on past experience, we expect a more virulent outbreak in the fall-winter. The trick around messaging will be to prevent panic and complacency. Stay tuned. This was a dry run on preparedness. It revealed lots of work to be done.

For those wondering what's the big deal? It is a new - not before seen virus - that seemed to transmit rapidly. And for some as yet unknown (and I stress unknown, despite all the theories floating around on the web) reason, death in Mexico among otherwise young healthy individuals. Still no conclusion among experts as to why. Get your flu shot this year!
 
Thanks MMM! :thumb:

There was suspicion that higher death rates had to do with not seeking prompt medical treatment which may have some correlation to poverty or culture.
I don't know the culture well, and I am sure there are many differences in the different areas and aspects of the culture and sub or alternate cultures.

The Yucatan Peninsula including 3 states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Quintana Roo is somewhat different from the mainland in general I've read. I've been reading more on the history lately; very interesting. The US was invited to take control during the 1840s; Santa Anna was pretty mean to them too - but that didn't go thru and probly wouldn't have worked so well during our civil war.

Today, with faster travel, interstate TV and other media, mainlanders immigrating over the decades to develop the tourist areas started 40 years ago by the Banco de Mexico, I'm sure there are more similarities that even bleed over into the rural Mayan culture somewhat. I am rambling a bit, but wanted to reference differences and similarities both of the mainland areas where this infection hit hard as compared to the Yuc-Pen which has been essentially spared.
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In addition to the possibilities or the poor not seeking medical attention rapidly;

There is also the Farmicia influence, with over the counter antibiotics and many other meds that we in the US see as prescription only - leading to more self medicating, which would have failed horribly in this outbreak I think. Ampicillin is cheap and easy to acquire there, I got some from my Cancun dentist in March but also a couple of more packs to bring home since it is so much cheaper than here - not that I'm any better at self medicating, but I like to keep it handy.

Then there is the Farmicist playing doctor in many cases, which is more like a sales consultant it seems. That's legal and common in all of Mexico I think, and probly works okay in many cases - but may have lead people to avoid real doctors and hospitals when they really should have been going in, as well as the risk of developing ampicillin resistant bacteria strains.

And there are the villages without doctors. Seen many of them on the drive to Holbox and I'm sure they're common across the Yuc-Pen and much of Mexico.​
So I can see many challenges there. It's good that we have educated professionals who understand all this more and can offer suggestions based on better information, but it helps my acceptance to understand these facets somewhat.
(although if that's the difference, I'm really screwed because I usually don't get a flu shot).
Yeah, that sucks. I used to post reminder threads in the fall but quit. Too many people posting why they didn't - many of the posts involving false science and just absurd statements. It's a personal call, but generally a good idea. Glad I usually do.
We also don't have enough information to know how deadly this is compared to normal influenza in the vulnerable population. It seems like about every 10 posts someone else quotes the statistics yet again that 36,000 people die every year from influenza -- which means that if this bug is completely ignorable in the healthy adult population it can still kill 36,000 people in the US just by being 2x more lethal in the vulnerable population.
I'm not clear on what you just said there, but yeah - those "so what" posts are funny. This infection has given us a break, but it's still different; no reason to think that we'll only have 36,000 losses this coming season.

That's not quite accurate. When you catch the flu, whatever strain you have, you build up antibodies for that and only that strain. The vaccinations they make every year are a coctail of different strains of the flu combined which cause you to make antibodies for all of them. Ever since the last swine flu scare in 1977 they've added that version of the H1N1 to the coctail. Catching the regular human flu will give you no antibodies or resistance what's so ever to the so called swine flu. The H1N1 strain in the already used vaccine may only give partial protection against this new (A)H1N1 however. I guess partial is better than none.
Yeah, I think there are usually 3 strains included in the vaccine, including 1 H1C1 that might have helped developed some resistances in us old coots who have been getting the shots all those decades.

It's interesting to note there have been no reported cases on the Rio Grande other than in the lower Valley and in El Paso north along the river into New Mexico? It seems to have made air travel entries into many spots across the US, but for ground travel - only in a few spots, then worked up the RG into NM. Or are cases not being well reported on the RG? It's a long border to watch, but surely has been more closely. Map below, or larger version available from thumbnail here...

SH-01 (Large).jpg
Then got to wonder about the illegal entries too...?

fod5s5.jpg

 

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