I think I have a pretty good idea of what will ACTUALLY happen as this model (LDS vs LDS with on-line shopping) will effect the scuba diving business.
On the Number of Local Dive Stores: I think over the next year we will see a reduction in the number of local dive stores here in the United States. That reduction will certainly be at least a 10% change, but the possibility for a 30% reduction clearly exists. In the larger cities, you may well see no change at all......they have a larger demographic market, allowing them to build volume through local business. While there will likely be some reduction in prices, it will not be gigantic. Their larger market will allow them to continue to attract new divers at a fairly high rate, without the need to greatly reduce prices. In the smaller city markets, it will be quite different.
Remember, I have argued that many of these stores opened in places that never could really be expected to support such a speciality business. The price, service, and delivery ability of the online stores will add enough pressure to make it even more difficult for them to survive in a limited market. Many are already marginal and even slight reductions in annual sales will create a brutal situation. I fear the days of the "dive shop in every town" is fast becoming obsolete.
On the General Price of Scuba Equipment: What you will see on price will be a two fold change. As the number of local dive stores with an internet sales presence increases, you will see slight increases in the price of equipment on the internet. If there are a large number of internet store competing for a rather slow growing sales market, they will need to increase prices a little to cover the normal costs of doing business. Margins at internet dive stores right now are about as low as they can afford to go. At the same time, you will see decreases in the prices asked for goods in the local scuba store. They will not be able to continue to demand list or list-plus with the variety of internet competition that will be present. Eventually, you will see the prices level so that both in-store and online (with a few exceptions) will offer about the same prices.
On the Continues Growth of Online Scuba Shopping: Nothing happening with the local scuba store will not stop the growth of on-line shopping for scuba gear. The current growth is driven less and less by price and more and more by the natural desire of the "new" dive customer age group to shop over the internet. As the online shopping practice of this generation continues to mature, you will see a preference for online shopping, just as there is a preference among this same group to get their information, news, music, movies, and other things over the internet. In fact, we are already seeing the contraction in the number of ads in yellow page books, as these "new" consumers prefer to use the internet for finding contact information for local businesses to fill their needs. The internet will eventually do to the mall exactly what the mall did to downtown shopping districts. Scuba retail will, of course, continue to grow with the tide of growth for shopping for other types of items.
On the Fortunes of the "Grey Market" Scuba Retailers: They will continue to be the lowest cost suppliers in this business. However, their very small margins will dictate that there will be very few of them, like it is today. They will grow larger, but their "impact" on the overall internet shopping market will diminish as the competition from factory authorized online dealers continues to grow. Our friends in New York will always be there, but their margins will be razor thin and they will have to improve on their already excellent business practices to survive.
On the Impact of All of This on Scuba Divers: We will probably see an explosion in the number of scuba divers entering this sport. As the entry cost of this sport is lowered by the falling prices of scuba equipment, there will be more new divers who are able to cross the cost threshold. In addition, programs like PADI's eLearning will capture diver through the "impulse" sale mechanism that drive literally millions of other products and activities. More information will be available on our great sport, and more people will be attracted to give it a try. Of this larger group attracted, some number will continue as life-long divers, probably in the same proportion we have today. The biggest impact on divers will probably the the increased product selection that will be driven in both online and local dive stores. As consumers and new divers get additional information about scuba products, the stores (both online and local) will be forced to inventory to meet those needs.
On the Impact for the Scuba Manufacturers: In the medium term, I think you will see several things. Those manufacturers that are already "friendly" toward online sales will be "forced" to develop slightly more aggressive MAP advertising programs. Allowed advertising discounts will get larger. Those manufacturers that do not get this whole change will do nothing, until the market share starts to noticeably change. This is already beginning and will continue to grow in seriousness over the next year or two. Eventually, the loss in market share will be serious enough to cause even the most strident to change their policies. We may even see manufacturers start to design slightly "less feature rich" products just for the internet market. I have always thought this was one solution for the current problem. In short, the manufacturers will probably change considerably. It is possible that the "direct from the factory" distribution model will need to change. The current distribution model, with the high dealer buy-in demands, prevents the small dealer from showing variety, an essential in the new scuba market to come. In fact, we may even see some brave scuba companies attempt a "direct to the consumer" marketing strategy over the internet. Smaller third-tier manufacturers are already doing this. In the end, the only for this need for variety in the local store may be a distributor model like that used in other industries, where manufacturers sell to distributors and distributors offer expanded brand offerings to the scuba store (Peter Skop Industries here in the southeast is a model for such distribution).
Wow. I didn't mean to write a book! i write like I talk.........using too many words and too little judgement. Anyway, just my viewpoint.
Phil Ellis
