Here comes Tropical Storm Paula - Wednesday hurricane landing possible

[DandyDon]

Formerly known as Invest 98, it's been organizing just east of Nicaragua for a few days with a lot of uncertainty in direction and possibilities, but today - she bypassed the upgrade to TD and went to Tropical Storm Paula with aspirations of making hurricane tomorrow and landing on Mexico Wednesday. Some computers give other possibilities...

She may not make it and/or may veer inland, but anyone traveling on Wednesday may well want to watch her, especially with needed ferry crossings. My preferred weather forecasting site: Tropical Weather : Weather Underground Hoping for the best...

rom Dr Masters...
Proximity to land is hampering Paula's ability to intensify some, and the storm's northwest movement of 10 mph will take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's ability to intensify. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, for the remainder of the week. The computer models predict Paula will continue on a northwest motion then turn more north-northwest on Wednesday, which would take the storm close to landfall on the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Paula may be approaching Category 2 hurricane status, due to the moderate wind shear, SSTs of 29°C, and a sufficiently moist atmosphere. On Wednesday, there is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate, as predicted by the NOGAPS model. Finally, if Paula grows strong quickly, and pushes far enough north, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Friday or Saturday. It is too early to say which of these scenarios is the most likely, as the storm is just forming and the models do not have a good handle on it yet. Regardless, northern Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will receive dangerous flooding rains from Paula today through Wednesday.

As he said, there is still a lot of uncertainty, but Coz is in the zone of hate path for Wednesday...

Maps should automatically update for the duration...

With computer guesses suggesting other possibilities...

 

[driftwood]

Thanks Don,

I sure hope those smart boy's predictions are on target, we fly into Belize on Saturday.

 

[lamont]

latest predictions are kicking it up to a category 2

 

[Christi]

Looks like this one is the real deal!

Tomorrow will be a major prep day and Wed night and all day Thursday looks like we'll be in it until Friday and out of here by the weekend if the current forecast holds! This one gave us no warning!

Will keep updates posted as I can! Wish us luck and keep the island in your prayers please!

 

[scubawife]

Crazy weather all over the place this year. I think this is the first time I can remember seeing a Hurricane coming to the Yucatan after the first Norte. If it can't just go away, I hope that it doesn't get any stronger. Sounds like it's going to be a very busy day in Cozumel tomorrow.

 

[lamont]

yeah, this one looks like it may get a bit exciting...

 

[Basscat]

Godspeed, Cozumel. Hope it fizzles out or turns away, my thoughts are with La Isla.....

 

[DandyDon]

Thanks Don,

I sure hope those smart boy's predictions are on target, we fly into Belize on Saturday.

Too early to have any idea. Amazingly some of the computer guesses send it back the way it came after a u-turn in the Coz area. Currently they all give Belize a wide margin altho some had aimed that way at times over the last few days.

latest predictions are kicking it up to a category 2

Dr.Masters was suggestion the possibility. Looks like the map now suggests it in the Coz area as one.

Looks like this one is the real deal!

Tomorrow will be a major prep day and Wed night and all day Thursday looks like we'll be in it until Friday and out of here by the weekend if the current forecast holds! This one gave us no warning!

Will keep updates posted as I can! Wish us luck and keep the island in your prayers please!

It popped up down south on the 8th but the computer models have been guessing at all sorts of directions. At least it's a 1 or 2 and not a 4 or 5. Continental.com doesn't seem to have any traveler warnings, but if I had plans to arrive the next few days, I think I would consider calling to negotiate, especially if my plans included a ferry ride on Wednesday - but Thursday looks like a better arrival day than Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

[scubajim]

Hi hope it spares Cozumel, God willing.

 

[Christi]

Too early to have any idea. Amazingly some of the computer guesses send it back the way it came after a u-turn in the Coz area. Currently they all give Belize a wide margin altho some had aimed that way at times over the last few days.

Dr.Masters was suggestion the possibility. Looks like the map now suggests it in the Coz area as one.

It popped up down south on the 8th but the computer models have been guessing at all sorts of directions. At least it's a 1 or 2 and not a 4 or 5. Continental.com doesn't seem to have any traveler warnings, but if I had plans to arrive the next few days, I think I would consider calling to negotiate, especially if my plans included a ferry ride on Wednesday - but Thursday looks like a better arrival day than Tuesday or Wednesday.

I'm guessing that Wednesday flights won't come in if this path stays true overnight and through tomorrow.

Yep, it was a small area of disturbed weather a few days ago - but no one here was really worried about it - then this afternoon it went from an Invest to TS and has a more solid path and forecast - and it's moving fast - so in that regard, we had very little warning and time to prepare!

I would encourage those with plans to arrive this weekend to sit tight and wait to see what actually happens before you change travel plans - there's still plenty of time for you to make a decision based on what we will actually know after the storm rather than what COULD happen at this point!

Looking at the flash tracker - it looks like it may just brush the east side of the island - but of course that could change too!

Time for bed - it will be an earlier morning than usual!