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Formerly known as Invest 98, it's been organizing just east of Nicaragua for a few days with a lot of uncertainty in direction and possibilities, but today - she bypassed the upgrade to TD and went to Tropical Storm Paula with aspirations of making hurricane tomorrow and landing on Mexico Wednesday. Some computers give other possibilities...
She may not make it and/or may veer inland, but anyone traveling on Wednesday may well want to watch her, especially with needed ferry crossings. My preferred weather forecasting site: Tropical Weather : Weather Underground Hoping for the best...
With computer guesses suggesting other possibilities...
She may not make it and/or may veer inland, but anyone traveling on Wednesday may well want to watch her, especially with needed ferry crossings. My preferred weather forecasting site: Tropical Weather : Weather Underground Hoping for the best...
As he said, there is still a lot of uncertainty, but Coz is in the zone of hate path for Wednesday...rom Dr Masters...
Proximity to land is hampering Paula's ability to intensify some, and the storm's northwest movement of 10 mph will take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's ability to intensify. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, for the remainder of the week. The computer models predict Paula will continue on a northwest motion then turn more north-northwest on Wednesday, which would take the storm close to landfall on the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Paula may be approaching Category 2 hurricane status, due to the moderate wind shear, SSTs of 29°C, and a sufficiently moist atmosphere. On Wednesday, there is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate, as predicted by the NOGAPS model. Finally, if Paula grows strong quickly, and pushes far enough north, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Friday or Saturday. It is too early to say which of these scenarios is the most likely, as the storm is just forming and the models do not have a good handle on it yet. Regardless, northern Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will receive dangerous flooding rains from Paula today through Wednesday.
Maps should automatically update for the duration...
With computer guesses suggesting other possibilities...
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