Here comes Tropical Storm Paula - Wednesday hurricane landing possible

[DandyDon]

Yeah, it's been flaky, and these things do veer off path sometimes. Will there be diving Tuesday or will Ops start pulling boats out of the water early do you think - or will that vary?

Based on my uneducated look at the maps, I'd be leery of arriving Tuesday or Wednesday, with better hopes for Thursday - unless it does make a U-turn as some computer guesses suggest. Planes may still land at Cancun Wednesday, but the ferry would be doubtful.

For anyone already there: Hunker down...! eepwalla:

 

[Christi]

Yeah, it's been flaky, and these things do veer off path sometimes. Will there be diving Tuesday or will Ops start pulling boats out of the water early do you think - or will that vary?

Based on my uneducated look at the maps, I'd be leery of arriving Tuesday or Wednesday, with better hopes for Thursday - unless it does make a U-turn as some computer guesses suggest. Planes may still land at Cancun Wednesday, but the ferry would be doubtful.

We've got the tanks ordered - but - since we are under an official Hurricane warning now - we are expecting the port to be closed so that everyone can make final preparations - it's not just the boats and the shops - we've got to give our crews time to secure their property as well - so I don't expect anyone to be diving tomorrow.

Anyone who wants to pull their boats out of the water is going to face challenges - considering that the west side of Melgar is literally dug apart for a 1 mile stretch (from where the new car ferry is going in almost all the way to Villa Blanca) - they are installing a new drainage system - what timing huh? Meridiano (next to Blue Angel) has one of the only boat ramps - and it's not accessible right now - we'll see how they're dealing with that tomorrow!

 

[Diver Kat]

Hey Christi! You & everyone else stay safe!! And tell Sue Sue I was thinking of her as well!!

 

[Sue Sue]

Hi Kat, How sweet if you..thanks ! Will keep you posted the best as we can. Sue & Mike

 

[Christi]

Hey Christi! You & everyone else stay safe!! And tell Sue Sue I was thinking of her as well!!

I will Kat - even though she already saw your message Sue Sue and Mike will be my storm buddies this year so I don't have to ride it out alone - my better half is in the states right now - on his way back from Florida to TX actually - will get home on Sunday I hope!

 

[Prop Joe]

Now Cat 1 Hurricane Paula:
Hurricane Advisories National Hurricane Center

According to Stormcarib.com . As of 10/12/10, 5:30am the center is forecast to be within 30 miles of the island:
"Results for Cozumel, Mexico (20.44N, 86.93W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.4N, 86.5W or about 27.9 miles (44.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 28.5 hours (Wednesday, Octover 13 at 9:30AM EDT)."

Image:
http://weather.nsstc.nasa.gov/cgi-b...width=650&height=650&palette=spect.pal&zoom=1

Looks like she's going to rain on my arrival parade.
Good luck everyone!

 

[Christi]

Better news this morning - but the port is closed as of 7:30am this morning.

Last night before I went to bed, they were predicting it to come in at a Cat 2/3 - now back down to a Cat 1 coming the closest at 11am tomorrow and moving out of here Thursday/Friday.

By Sunday, according to Buoyweather.com - winds will be back down and out of the south so I suspect we'll lose water activities through Friday for sure and possibly Saturday - but by Sunday everything should be back on schedule if the current projectory holds true

 

[judydivescoz]

In Cozumel now. My friends are working this morning pulling out their boats, getting fuel and securing their home. Lets hope it stays Cat 1.

 

[Okc_diver]

Is it expected to be a direct hit or pass close by?

 

[CozumelAntonio]

Better news this morning - but the port is closed as of 7:30am this morning.

Last night before I went to bed, they were predicting it to come in at a Cat 2/3 - now back down to a Cat 1 coming the closest at 11am tomorrow and moving out of here Thursday/Friday.

By Sunday, according to Buoyweather.com - winds will be back down and out of the south so I suspect we'll lose water activities through Friday for sure and possibly Saturday - but by Sunday everything should be back on schedule if the current projectory holds true

From looking at the latest forecast images, it looks like it will be here overnight, not 11am tomorrow. It is moving fast, so it's not able to grow in strength which is good, and it's veering a little east of us, so we might miss a direct hit alltogether, which means we could be back in the water by Friday (crossing fingers).