Here comes Tropical Storm Paula - Wednesday hurricane landing possible

[Christi]

In Cozumel now. My friends are working this morning pulling out their boats, getting fuel and securing their home. Lets hope it stays Cat 1.

We are not taking the boats out of the water - just taking the few electronics, canopy's and engine off the boats and securing them very well.

 

[Christi]

From looking at the latest forecast images, it looks like it will be here overnight, not 11am tomorrow. It is moving fast, so it's not able to grow in strength which is good, and it's veering a little east of us, so we might miss a direct hit alltogether, which means we could be back in the water by Friday (crossing fingers).

This is where I saw 11am tomorrow:

How close can it get? - Closest Point of Approach - Caribbean Hurricane Network

Results for Cozumel, Mexico (20.44N, 86.93W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.4N, 86.7W or about 15.2 miles (24.4 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 36 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Wednesday, Octover 13 at 11:00AM EDT).

And according to NOAA - strongest winds at storm center 90mph - hurricane force winds only extend out 10 miles form the center - so more like 70ish for this side of the island - we've had norte's that strong - so I'm optimistic that this will be an annoyance more than anything else We're still prepping though!

 

[blue steal]

Thank you for the updates. Stay safe all.

 

[judydivescoz]

We are not taking the boats out of the water - just taking the few electronics, canopy's and engine off the boats and securing them very well.

Rita and Robert are taking Frigate and Libra out as I type. The Albatros is the only boat in the water. Crew is waiting in line to fill up the trucks with gas. I am home taking down all the stuff decorating the terraces and bringing in the furniture. Happy hour is starting very late today!!

 

[Diver Kat]

I will Kat - even though she already saw your message Sue Sue and Mike will be my storm buddies this year so I don't have to ride it out alone - my better half is in the states right now - on his way back from Florida to TX actually - will get home on Sunday I hope!

Glad you're all together! You couldn't ask for a better support team than those two!

 

[Zman96]

Good luck everybody on the island and those traveling there in the next few days. Hopefully the new predictions for a smaller storm and a track to the east stay correct.

 

[budaman]

Hoping everyone there comes through this with a minimum of fuss.....your optimism is inspiring. We come in Saturday for our inspection of the house we have under contract...Henny assures us everything should be fine. Fingers crossed!

Keep dry.

Mike

 

[DandyDon]

Looks like she's going to rain on my arrival parade.
Good luck everyone!

When do you hope to arrive? Not today or tomorrow I hope.

Continental Air now allowing free changes to travel planned today or tomorrow.

By Sunday, according to Buoyweather.com - winds will be back down and out of the south so I suspect we'll lose water activities through Friday for sure and possibly Saturday - but by Sunday everything should be back on schedule if the current projectory holds true

If it does veer east, divers already there might consider day trips to the peninsula for cenotes & ruin tours, but rain & flooding are a risk if it goes inland. I'd hate to drive that construction area between Coba and Valladolid in the rain, and drainage for that area would be questionable. Dr.Masters talks about a risk of a foot of rain but certainly no certainty.

Is it expected to be a direct hit or pass close by?

It depends on whom you ask and when.

From looking at the latest forecast images, it looks like it will be here overnight, not 11am tomorrow. It is moving fast, so it's not able to grow in strength which is good, and it's veering a little east of us, so we might miss a direct hit alltogether, which means we could be back in the water by Friday (crossing fingers).

It really did pick up speed and the faster movement does indeed prevent acceleration of intensity. She also set a "a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength."

Rita and Robert are taking Frigate and Libra out as I type. The Albatros is the only boat in the water. Crew is waiting in line to fill up the trucks with gas. I am home taking down all the stuff decorating the terraces and bringing in the furniture. Happy hour is starting very late today!!

With only two gas stations, I bet those lines are bad. Mega will have a big day too.

 

[CO]

we will be diving PDC on saturday, keeping my fingers crossed...

 

[CozumelAntonio]

The latest position has it veering slightly east, and the projected path appears to miss Cozumel completely (and giving Cancun a little kiss). It's moving forward fast and could be nearest Cozumel as early as midnight tonight or thereabouts. The NHC is calling it a "small hurricane" and if it continues to move out, we might be back in business as early as Friday. Crossing fingers.