Nord Stream Pipeline Video

[Trace Malinowski]

Video of the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline has been released. One such clip is found here: ‘Powerful explosions’ caused Nord Stream leaks, Danish authorities say

Any thoughts from @Akimbo or others who might have experience with underwater demo?

 

[Akimbo]

Any thoughts from @Akimbo or others who might have experience with underwater demo?

It is hard to tell much from this video. If the caption on the video is correct, that 50m of pipe is missing, it would take a lot of explosives to make that happen.

Thinking out loud​

Color me skeptical that it is accurate that pipe is "missing" and is typical of all four pipes. It is true that damaging the pipe in two locations only 50m/165' apart would significantly slow repairs, either by subsea habitat welds or hauling ends to the surface. Completely severing and removing a section of pipe would make repairs faster as oppose to just blowing holes.

IF the estimate is correct and this damage is typical of all four pipes, it really points the finger at the US. Plenty of countries have the diving and ROV expertise but, AFAIK, only the US has the capacity to pull it off without detection — saturation divers and/or ROVs from a submarine.

It takes a LOT of bottom time and explosives to cause this much damage. A few divers on rebreathers hauling plastic explosives from a small boat couldn't get it done without detection.

My first question would be where was the USS Jimmy Carter? This is pretty close to an admission.

​

I find speculation that blames Russia for blowing up their own pipelines completely implausible. I can't conceive of a reason when closing valves on land serves the same purpose and keeps their options open.

Some of the nuke boat sailors on the board may have different opinions. Ping @Bob DBF and @formernuke

 

[Trace Malinowski]

Color me skeptical that it is accurate that pipe is "missing" and is typical of all four pipes. It is true that damaging the pipe in two locations only 50m/165' apart would significantly slow repairs, either by subsea habitat welds or hauling ends to the surface. Completely severing and removing a section of pipe would make repairs faster as oppose to just blowing holes.

IF the estimate is correct and this damage is typical of all four pipes, it really points the finger at the US. Plenty of countries have the diving and ROV expertise but, AFAIK, only the US has the capacity to pull it off without detection — saturation divers and/or ROVs from a submarine.

It takes a LOT of bottom time and explosives to cause this much damage. A few divers on rebreathers hauling plastic explosives from a small boat couldn't get it done without detection.

My first question would be where was the USS Jimmy Carter? This is pretty close to an admission.

This sort of interesting speculative opinion can only come from a real diver and not those of us who only know how to look narcissistically pretty while swimming past wet rocks.

 

[Pearlman]

Thinking out loud
Color me skeptical that it is accurate that pipe is "missing" and is typical of all four pipes. It is true that damaging the pipe in two locations only 50m/165' apart would significantly slow repairs, either by subsea habitat welds or hauling ends to the surface. Completely severing and removing a section of pipe would make repairs faster as oppose to just blowing holes.

IF the estimate is correct and this damage is typical of all four pipes, it really points the finger at the US. Plenty of countries have the diving and ROV expertise but, AFAIK, only the US has the capacity to pull it off without detection — saturation divers and/or ROVs from a submarine.

Agreed. This video explains the plausible motivations for US to do this. No conspiracy theories here, just a sober presentation of the possibility :



PS: Sabotaged exactly one day before the Poland-Norway pipeline opened…

 

[SlugLife]

Someone in the US/Nato/EU circle definitely did the sabotage.

* Biden and Victoria Nuland both said the pipeline would be shut down if Russia invaded Ukraine.
* One of the US representatives (I think it was Anthony Blinken) said attacking the pipeline was in nobody's interest, and then a few days later said it was an incredible opportunity.
* Germany says they know who did it, but can't say for national security reasons.
* Sweden also says they can't share their investigation, for national security reasons.
* Various NATO/EU countries are obstructing Russia from investigating the pipeline.
* Those waters are patrolled by NATO, and the US was even doing exercises very close to the area with ships, helicopters, and underwater drones in the preceding months.

Who did it? The most likely suspect is the US, however this could also be a "copy-cat-killer" type case, where the US threatened to kill the pipeline, and then someone else like Poland did it. The fact that several in the NATO/EU block claim they know the culprit, and revealing it would be a national-security concern, STRONGLY suggests it was one of them because if ANYBODY else did it, it wouldn't be a national security concern.

The more interesting topic from a scuba-perspective, IMO, is not who did it, but rather how it could have been done. In discussions elsewhere, I've asserted this kind of sabotage doesn't need a "super-secret high-tech submarine assault force." Instead, all you need is some underwater explosives, and either a decent sized commercial drone, or technical divers. The pipe-depth where the breaches occurred was about 80-meters, so it's deep, but not crazy deep.

I'm not saying it's easy, but someone motivated enough and with access to explosives (as any country would have) would also have the means of doing it. With the resources of a nation (even 3rd world nations have budgets in the billions of dollars), almost any nation could either pull this off or hire some mercenaries to do it. That said, the fact that there seems to have been 3 or 4 sites attacked, strongly suggests it's someone with more resources to dedicate to a bigger operation.

The other challenge is doing it in such a way you wouldn't be detected and discovered later. For example, a ship lingering over the exact site for several days might show up on satellite photos. That's where a submarine comes in handy, perhaps dropping off and picking up divers or a drone. That said, several countries seem to be quite confident they know who did it, but won't say, which may suggest this operation may not have been a super-stealthy operation.

 

[Jcp2]

You could blow up a pipe from the inside.

 

[admikar]

You could blow up a pipe from the inside.

This begs question how? To do so you have to gain access either on German or Russian end. Neither had any inclination to permanently close down that pipeline.

 

[lexvil]

Looks like faulty welds

 

[SlugLife]

You could blow up a pipe from the inside.

This begs question how? To do so you have to gain access either on German or Russian end. Neither had any inclination to permanently close down that pipeline.

For oil pipe-lines, there are these plug-looking things which can be sent down the pipeline to clean it. I'm not sure if that would work on a gas-pipeline, especially with a heavy payload.

Regardless, that wouldn't explain Nordstream 2, given Nordstream 2 was pressurized but inactive, meaning no gas-flow.

 

[admikar]

For oil pipe-lines, there are these plug-looking things which can be sent down the pipeline to clean it. I'm not sure if that would work on a gas-pipeline, especially with a heavy payload.

Regardless, that wouldn't explain Nordstream 2, given Nordstream 2 was pressurized but inactive, meaning no gas-flow.

I know that, but how would you gain access in the first place to put the pig in?