Question about rough seas in Key West

[Doc Harry]

So, I'm planning on heading out to the Keys on Sunday for a couple of days. I have two days of diving planned for Monday and Tuesday. The Marine forecast is calling for 5-8' seas and 20knot winds.

What is the likelihood that boats will still be going out for diving?

I just don't want to waste frequent flier miles and hotel points if I can't even dive!

Opinions would be appreciated!

D

Several years ago I had 2 weeks off and decided to go to Key West for some diving.

I called all of the Key West dive operators that I could find online and in the yellow pages. They all told me that the diving was great, and they did night dives once a week (like on Tuesdays or Wednesdays). I booked some dives with the now-defunct SubTropic.

When I got down to Key West I learned the truth -- that the weather had been so bad for the past week that all the dive charters had been grounded. The bad weather continued for 2 more weeks.

During my 2-week stay in Key West I got one dive, in 15-feet of water, with 4-foot visibility, on a snorkel boat.

Lessons Learned:
1. Do not believe anything that a Key West dive operator tells you about either the weather or dive conditions
2. Go diving somewhere besides Key West

 

[RonFrank]

Post in the FL forum. You will get answers from folks living in Largo and Key West (Wookie's advice was good). Not sure why you want to dive in Key West when Largo has better conditions?

Diving in the Keys is best in June-July even if its hot... I would say June - Sept but those nasty hurricanes can show up.

 

[MX727]

Coastal Waters Forecast for Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef (GMZ042)

Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to the reef (GMZ044)

 

[Magnolia3]

Doing the WeatherUnderground stuff one has NO idea whether it is the Hawk or the Straits they are forecasting.
Next being elsewhere one does not have the advantage of local knowledge.

A few examples are that I know here in TampaBay that the winds until 2-3 in the afternoon blow from onshore to the west.. about 2-3 they clock around and push me back east... useful knowledge if one's sailboat is sans engine..
I know that NOAA will tell me a front is passing. What it won't tell me, that falls under 'local knowledge' is that the cold front that passed a week past has hit the straits of florida has doblued back as a warm front headed for a head on collision with the current front. Offshore that means totally ****ty boating and zip for decent diving, unless one has either a yen for thrills or death or both.. btdt.. I like my rig in one piece and me above ground breathing.

I know, as a Floridian that from right around Christmas to pretty much the end of April the Gulf of Mexico is funky..
I left Naples one morning in Mid January had a lovely overnight sail to Key West. My buddy who left the next morning had the overnight trip from hel.

A dive captain might very well telly you "today" we had great vis and great diving... you get there tomorrow and it has all gone to hel in a handbasket. Did he lie, I guess the answer is subjective.

In any case my surmise is that any decent dive captain who values his business will be as truthful as he can be with the weather. Considering from reading here, most divers are not boaters who's lives are ruled by it.

My birthday is ruined every darn year because it is in Mid March and the Gulf is crappy, invariably, at that time... yet again another birthday boating trip is toast..So we will have it in May when the Tortugas are nicer.. by then I will need another bottle of woodfords...

 

[HowardE]

Weather Underground? Never heard of it. I don't know anyone who doesn't use NOAA, and most of us have a forecast we pay for, like Buoyweather. Sailflow is another excellent free source, they use different modeling than NOAA. Whatever source you use, average them all and that will get you pretty close.

I would not come Monday or Tuesday to Key West. If I were diving Monday or Tuesday, I'd do it in Key Largo. If my heart was set on Key West, I'd plan late April/May.

Weather Underground. wunderground.com uses the NOAA Marine forecast verbatim. They do have a good hurricane blog, as the founder of the site formerly flew as a hurricane hunter.

 

[beautybelow]

I thought I mentioned something about wunderground earlier. I guess it got swept up in the cleaning.

I would not plan for a storm when I was working the Caribbean without reading Dr Master's blog. He told it straight, no hype.

They had a great blackberry app and I dove the Cayman Aggressor around grand cayman during a tropical storm one week using pretty much nothing but it's current conditions. When the wind began to switch I knew it was time to go to the other side.

The ride around the east end sucked though, especially at 3 am.

But we got up and did a nice dive on Babylon and went about our business.

 

[Magnolia3]

Weather Underground. wunderground.com uses the NOAA Marine forecast verbatim. They do have a good hurricane blog, as the founder of the site formerly flew as a hurricane hunter.

With all due respect, Weather Underground does not give, on their site, conditions both inside and outside the reef as does the verbal one we get while in the Keys, channel 2 if I recall correctly, and that makes a huge difference in where you are going... Further, NOAA never gives out more than the basics..

They never tell you that local knowledge of the weather patterns in the are ARE.................. that takes someone living there to understand that..

I can tell you that the wind direction and speed last night was dead wrong... here in TampaBay that is... I know, I was out chasing wind in a 32 foot sailboat half the night... NOAA claimed the wind speed was 5-10 that was BS..it was a steady 20 to 25 knots and gusts much higher...

the Cubans get their weather directly from NOAA as well.. not that it has anything to do with this conversation....
CUBAN WEATHER

I grew up down here, I know that for at least a couple of days after a winter front passes the gulf will be either A.) crappy, or B.) the perfect time to use to push me south on a fast lumpy run.

 

[Magnolia3]

I thought I mentioned something about wunderground earlier. I guess it got swept up in the cleaning.

I would not plan for a storm when I was working the Caribbean without reading Dr Master's blog. He told it straight, no hype.

I am a major fan of Dr Masters during hurricane season esp. However there are others out there that are equally as good. Just that they only predict for either money or cruisers offshore.. Herb on Southbound II via SSB is one of them.
Paying attention to the comments section, esp during an active storm tracking will yield a lot of great websites. A few yrs back Lefty410 had a companion page that even Dr Masters referred too. He eventually created his own website. I have a lot of links, and to that one as well in my favorites. WU also used to use the navy GOES satellites... one can also get them on the web. Cannot remember where I was the other night but I realized that was what I was looking at due the comments at the bottom of the page.

During last yrs season I was able to snag the weather service for both Martinique and San Croix and the Netherlands Antilles.. just pay attention to dr masters blog...


I am a fan of the data bouy system as well.
National Data Buoy Center

 

[HowardE]

With all due respect, Weather Underground does not give, on their site, conditions both inside and outside the reef as does the verbal one we get while in the Keys, channel 2 if I recall correctly, and that makes a huge difference in where you are going... Further, NOAA never gives out more than the basics..

With All due respect back. You're wrong. Usually they do both inside and outside the reef. Today however they don't have it. Usually though... they do.

 

[mselenaous]

As of this afternoon:

buoy data for Key Largo:NDBC - Station MLRF1
FL Keys Forecast: NDBC - NWS Forecast

GMZ042>044-112030-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUTTO THE REEF-HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOALOUT TO THE REEF-1030 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOONEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY...INCREASING TONEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERSBECOMING ROUGH.
TONIGHT AND MONDAYEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS 2 TO4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS...EXCEPT ISOLATEDSHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAYEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS CHOPPY. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAYNORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS.SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATEDSHOWERS.

---

GMZ052>055-072>075-112030-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILEBRIDGE OUT 20 NM-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OFHALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRYTORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILEBRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OFHALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRYTORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-1030 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOONEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.ISOLATED SHOWERS.
TONIGHT AND MONDAYEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.SCATTERED SHOWERS...EXCEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAYEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAYNORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS.

The Key Largo boat captains live & breath by the MLRF1 wind data. Winds from the E, SE, or NE have a bigger impact on sea conditions than winds from W, NW, SW.

FWIW, the only guarantee is that weather does and will change and weather forecasts are sometimes inaccurate.