Herd Immunity in Indonesia

[Germie]

Here they say 98 till 99.8% of the people have no symptoms. And all that people need to stop their lives just to save less than can be saved by an influenza vaccine? That is the point. The risk of getting a real problem with this virus is smaller than getting a car accident. That is the problem.
I agree with @DownUnderwater Dan , most don't have symptoms, and all that people need to stop their lives? That is the strange thing in this. Let everybody decided for themselves. In a flu epidemic, people that are in a riskgroup will take measurements themselves. So don't visit things, ask people not to come. But now everybody is limited in their life and that is the bad thing. There is no future now for people who are in their best days of life. You cannot make plans.
This affects really the diving industry, that is based on people travelling around the world.
It is also based on people who have the money to dive. If countries make their taxes or insurances higher, then people cannot travel anymore. Also if this takes too long, people who are interested in diving will loose their interest and others will getting other health problems they have to quit. You cannot make advertisements to sell courses now. And you need to restart your business from almost zero if you ever can start again.

 

[stepfen]

The risk of getting a real problem with this virus is smaller than getting a car accident. That is the problem.

Where do you guys get these numbers??? ~200000 are dead in the US alone because of this in 6 or so months - and that's with all the measures etc - imagine if we followed your logic and live without them.
How many died because of car accidents at the same time?? Last figure I can find is 2018 with ~36500 fatalities for the whole year.

The fact that you don't have or you have but you don't care about vulnerable people around hence you want your life back is quite selfish don't you think?
Yes you might be asymptomatic but if you are allowed to travel for fun (diving is supposed to be fun isn't it??) say to Raja Ampat or the surroundings to enjoy diving and you bring this thing to these remote and poor areas who is going to suffer from the consequences??? You or the population there?

You can live few months (even years) without fun traveling/diving. Don't you? People around you need you to do this so that they don't risk their lives unnecessarily. It's not they like it this way (who likes living without the income tourists bring in?) - it is about human lives we are talking about here.

Just my 2c...

 

[KenGordon]

If the world had to shutdown for 2-3 years because of deadly strain of flu, I would obligingly do so, & I would agree with it, the reason being that a deadly strain of flu poses a danger to all, whether they're at the prime of their life or a child.

Flu death rates increase exponentially with age too. However the baseline rate is much lower than for Covid 19 so it kills many fewer even in a bad year.

Your posts seem to be those of a denier. You don’t like it and want it not to be happening. We all understand and agree, the difference is we can see ways to do something about it ra5her than ignoring it, carrying on as if nothing is happening and killing our parents, elderly friends, people in chemo, people with diabetes etc etc.

Please understand that the expected number of deaths would be about 0.5 to 1% of the world. That is 8e9/200 or 4e7, so 40,000,000. All here think that seeing pretty fish in Indonesia is cool but is it worth 40 million deaths?

 

[RayfromTX]

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[DownUnderwater Dan]

The shutdown has been six months, let's not blow this out of proportion. In 5yrs time you can speak to the world on how right you were. But otherwise this is a scuba forum and probably all of us have a dilettante understanding of virology and most of us have similar on statistics. The biggest number I've heard for asymptomatic people is about 40%, short of vast majority.

My wife works with high ranking public health expert, she has more PhDs and medical degrees than I have dive certs. My father-in-law has more published papers in respected journals than I have dives, most of them on viruses and RNA manipulation of viruses. When these people tell me how nuanced this virus is, and what they are learning about it, I listen. When you tell me how self-explanatory this is, I'm not swayed by the veracity of it.

Fair enough

A lot of experts around the world have different views

92% Covid patients in India are asymptomatic, Health Minister Harsh Vardhan tells Lok Sabha

In India at the moment, it's 92% asymptomatic. In the UK it's 80% asymptomatic. The WHO put it at around 80% in one of their studies.

 

[Germie]

I speak about car accidents, yes. You have accidents from just hitting another car to deaths. It is the same with sars-cov-2. Most don't get any problems, here they say 98 till 99.8% of the people who get infected don't have any symtoms.

You sometimes have flu epidemics where in my country also hospitals are full. Then nothing is done. We had till now only 400 deads due to influenza, the average per year is 8000. We have now 6250 deads 'due to' corona (only 80 that don't have other illnesses), so the overall rate is less than in a normal flu year.

I don't know how bad it is in Indonesia, I don't know if hospitals are full. But if there really 30% got infected, you must see the numbers going down soon. That is herd immunity.
I read the posts of @DownUnderwater Dan like this. I can agree with him. He is not an egoist, nor am I. We only see that people get bankrupted with a good business before. We see numbers of suicise and we see that more lifes are destroyed than ever can be saved. For my country it is calculated that 14.000 till 21.000 years of life are saved due to measurements, but 100.000 till 400.000 years of life are lost. People died here due to cancer or heartproblems.
De andere rekening van de coronazorg: ‘Door uitgestelde zorg gingen 100 tot 400 duizend levensjaren verloren’

You also see that Sweden with only a few measurements has no other amounts of deads than countries that took complete lockdowns.
I think that a corona virus is same as with flu, you stil can get it, but over a period of time it is getting less serious. Also some doctors state the virus already mutated to mild(er).
That will also mean, still infections, less people with real problems.

The original question of this topic was: will you go back to Indonesia if herd immunity is achieved? My answer is yes, if the things are normal again, life back like it was before march 2020. I am not afraid of getting ill. So if indonesia states we open again on a normal way for tourists, I will book a flight.

 

[Indah]

Good point, I should of elaborated further. If the vast majority of people infected with covid show little to no symptoms, it means their bodies although infected, cope with the virus quite well. If the virus is still spreading but 92% of the infected don't require any medical treatment, as in India's case, surely a remodeling of the pandemic planning is in order, evidenced by the fact that covid does not present a serious or mortal danger to the greater public.

Immunity for covid-19 is only measured by antibodies being present, but all studies show covid-19 antibodies only last a few months at the very most.
If immunity is measured by the T-cell immune response to covid-19 which renders an infection to not produce symptoms, then this would be half the world's population at the very least with some form of protection

Where did you find this number of 92%

 

[DuTemplar]

I'd go tomorrow. Easily. Pretty much anywhere. The only drawback being a local return quarantine of a week at a preselected government approved hotel. Blah. That's actually more political & economic than medically related, but hey.

The worldwide demographics are still in the high (90-99% range) being over 65 years of age and with multiple pre-existing conditions that are most susceptible and will die, regardless. "Flatten the curve" meant the exact same number of people would die, but spread out over time. The Same Totals, just not overwhelmingly all at once. The majority of patients don't even know they have had it.

Add in the skyrocketing suicides, and secondary deaths by medical neglect (outpatients are closed)/ fear of care, economic effects (including hunger, bankruptcy, decreased production and the expected food shortages), etc... Protect the at risk populations, and let people live, especially those who are not at risk or choose to live. If they want to run and work at the hotel or dive shop, cool.

Side note, not as novel as initially expected and numbers of people pop up with resistance... or even more people didn't know they had it...
Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

Where did you find this number of 92%

I was referring to India

92% Covid patients in India are asymptomatic, Health Minister Harsh Vardhan tells Lok Sabha

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

Flu death rates increase exponentially with age too. However the baseline rate is much lower than for Covid 19 so it kills many fewer even in a bad year.

Your posts seem to be those of a denier. You don’t like it and want it not to be happening. We all understand and agree, the difference is we can see ways to do something about it ra5her than ignoring it, carrying on as if nothing is happening and killing our parents, elderly friends, people in chemo, people with diabetes etc etc.

Please understand that the expected number of deaths would be about 0.5 to 1% of the world. That is 8e9/200 or 4e7, so 40,000,000. All here think that seeing pretty fish in Indonesia is cool but is it worth 40 million deaths?

Flu death rates increase exponentially with age too. However the baseline rate is much lower than for Covid 19 so it kills many fewer even in a bad year.

I said "deadly strain of flu", you're getting mixed up with seasonal influenza

Your posts seem to be those of a denier.

What have I denied in my posts? I have quoted a lot of official facts from government & health bodies. And even facts from the top immunologists in the world

killing our parents, elderly friends, people in chemo, people with diabetes etc etc.

Who's killing them?

All here think that seeing pretty fish in Indonesia is cool but is it worth 40 million deaths?

So diving in Indonesia will cause 40 million deaths??
Or you're trying to make that link in some kind of way?