Actually, I use foil all the time to keep food from burning in the oven (i.e. laying a piece of foil over a pie or something to keep it from getting blackened)
It can indeed reflect the radiant heat, and the fact that it can partially contain steam from the baking item may also come into play. As someone who's cooked foil-wrapped hot dogs over a candle, I can say with certainty that it is also possible to burn things through aluminum foil.
(If you don't wrap the hot dogs in foil before roasting them over the candle, you end up with sooty hot dogs. If you wrap them tightly in foil and
then roast them, they taste a whole lot better... well, for hot dogs, at least.)
you can actually touch the foil pretty much straight out of the oven--it doesn't get hot.
Okay, this is the chemical engineering degree speaking, but... The foil *does* get hot. When it is in the oven, it quickly reaches equilibrium with the hot air in the oven (or some lower equilibrium temperature if there is something cooler on one side). The foil can indeed reach plastic-melting temperatures.
Of course, aluminum has a much lower heat capacity than most baked goods (and certainly *much* lower than water, which has an unusually high heat capacity). In addition, heat capacity is the amount of heat energy per mass per change in temperature. Aluminum already has a rather low heat capacity, but even more significantly, when you use aluminum *foil*, you use very little mass of aluminum. (Consider the mass of an aluminum half-sheet pan versus the mass of a rectangle of aluminum foil large enough to cover it.)
The aluminum foil has low heat capacity and very little mass, and the large area means that heat loss by conduction to the air occurs quite rapidly. All those aspects together mean that you can pull a sheet of aluminum foil off a roast and within mere moments have it wadded up into a juggling ball, all without any burns.
(If, however, there was a large amount of condensed water on the bottom of the foil, the larger heat capacity of the water and the mass of adhered water droplets may mean that you get a bit cooked yourself unless you allow the water to cool before wadding up the ball -- setting the foil sheet on the counter with the wet side up will allow water to rapidly evaporate, quickly dropping the temperature to non-pain-inducing levels, but to go into why, I'd have to touch on vapor pressures and the latent heat of vaporization, which is probably more than anyone cares about right now.)
So, if you were to use that, it should just reflect the heat of the candle back onto the cupcake, not through to the other side.
It would indeed reflect the radiant heat coming from the candle flame, but of far more importance is the heated air. The air (and combustion products) leaving the candle flame is hot enough to cause burns far more quickly than the radiant heat. (Hold your finger about two inches away alongside a candle flame, and it'll feel a bit warm. Hold your finger two inches directly above the candle flame, and you'll feel pain rather quickly.)
Convection brings the heat from the candle flame to the ceiling of the box, where it would heat the foil. Conduction through the foil would then be the primary concern (either in melting the ceiling of the box or melting the sides at the foil-plastic interface). Of course, "laminating" the non-conductive cardboard with non-flammable, reflective aluminum foil may be the best idea. The cardboard buffer between the aluminum foil and any plastic parts would prevent damage by heat conduction, and the foil would reduce radiant heat gain.
As I wouldn't mind even if the cardboard get somewhat charred, I don't think the foil layer is necessary, but if the whole setup bursts into flames upon candle ignition and requires immediate overturning to douse it, I will consider various foil-containing approaches in any potential refinements to the process.
Oh, do you have a set time to do this? I think you should try it during Vortoberfest, lol!
Um... er... you mean like on the big rock at the back of the cavern (in front of the sign), which would give me a nice silt-free platform to work on (and which is certainly visible even to divers who remain a few yards away in the strictly open-water non-overhead area)? That almost sounds like the very place the exercise is being planned for...
(Of course, perhaps I should also be considering possibilities for roasting marshmallows underwater, but that's probably another trip.)