OK, so second part of this discussion.
Part of the reason I started this thread was to get the attention of as many people on SB as I could. If I posted this in my regional section I would have gotten maybe 6 replies and the thread would have died. Now see, that's good marketing!
MDB, you probably already know this, but I'm going to explain why Northerm California is going to potentially see some big changes.
As some of you might know the state of CA closed abalone diving possibly for good. Many of the dive shops north of San Francisco depend heavily on abalone diving and all the gear sales, gear rentals, freediving classes etc that go along with everything to do with abalone diving. It was a seasonal sport that used to range from April 1st thru November 30th, with July closed. Last year they took one month off each end of the season to reduce take.
The reason they closed it is because of dwindling numbers, and not because of over harvesting, it was because of drastic changes to the environment that lead to the abalone starving. Massive kelp die offs and toxic algea blooms caused a whole domino effect of some bad things going on in the ocean and the result was a huge die off of sea stars first, then the kelp died off, then the urchins began to eat everything inluding any new kelp growth, as a result many areas turned into urchin barrens and the abalone are starving to death. There was also a toxic algea bloom a few years ago that caused a massive abalone die off.
After a lot of science they found that the numbers were below their threshhold for sustaining the species so they closed it. Such is life and I support the move, I think it was the right thing to do. I was a very low take diver anyway and would only get a few a year. I won't miss it.
So, the effects on our local dive shops will be big since abalone diving was a huge part of their income. Scuba diving has always been a small part of business here. I doubt they will be able to support their shops on scuba sales/classes/trips alone. The previous discussion of this thread outlines a decline in scuba related sales at brick and mortar shops already and they were feeling that phenomenon as well.
In my area, the two shops here *might* be able to sustain themselves but it's going to be tough. Up in Mendocino where there is one shop, probably not. They rely so heavily as an abalone diving tourist destination that most of their business will vaporize. I doubt they will be able to continue on a few air fills and kayak rentals. They may be able to turn their attention to the spearos and promote hunting fin fish, but that has potentioal to decimate an already stressed resource.
My LDS in Santa Rosa may have a chance because they decided to get into other stuff like surfing and other water sports activities. They are also gearing up to really start promoting scuba again. The new owner who worked there for years as an employee is pretty motivated to try some new things so we'll see. I really like the guy and have been in there a lot buying stuff. I also send a lot of people in there.
Down in Marin County I doubt they will feel this too much, and in Monterey not at all.
I know this is a regional issue centered around one part of the state, but it gives you an example of how fragile an economy can be in a local area. I know a lot of inns and campgrounds will also feel the drop in the seasonal business.
It would be like making cave diving in FL illegal, what would happen to all the shops and affiliated businesses in cave country?
Anyway, this is what we're going through.