N=1
My consumption has dropped consistently over > 300 dives as my technique improved, I relaxed more, I trimmed and weighted better. All this while my weight went from ~ 190 to ~ 240 and I got more out of shape. So fitness is clearly not the only factor, nor even necessarily the dominant factor. I dive with others who sip air yet carry much excess baggage.
Not to dismiss fitness, I started at the gym a few months back, and have been dropping ~ 1 a week, now at 226. I would be hard pressed to believe the weight is making any difference, it didn't make any observable difference as I was adding it.
I would believe my cardio improvements are making a difference. My observations over the last few weeks tell me that for a given heart rate, my breathing is easier and less laboured than it would have been a few months ago. Apparently my body is doing better at gas exchange - more oxygen used and more CO2 produced does not require more rapid breathing, or at least not as much more.
If you are out of shape, improved cardio will likely make some improvement. But I am firmly in the camp that the better, more predictable and reliable solution is technique. Dive more, dive often, improve comfort, and improve skills. Consumption will follow.
For reference my rate during my first full season averaged 1.34 ft3/min, with a low of 0.80 and a high of 1.76. Major Air Hog territory. (17 dives)
Year 2 it was 0.87 avg, low 0.53 (60 dives)
Last year (7) was avg 0.58, min 0.39. (56 dives)
Well over half of these dives are cold water.
First dive of this season, 55f / 13c, last Wednesday, first dive since November, unexpected silt out during a dive that was already low vis, was 0.62 ft3/min.
All of that improvement was courtesy of technique and experience, not fitness.