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The Jaw-Dropping Stats from Hurricane Irma

Discussion in 'Sea Save Foundation' started by Sea Save Foundation, Sep 19, 2017.

  1. tridacna

    tridacna ScubaBoard Supporter ScubaBoard Supporter

    # of Dives: 2,500 - 4,999
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    Your title states Marine Scientist. I’m curious...in what field? Do you have a Phd? Your response is a bit off-base. (Understatement of decade). Do you think that there is a greater likelihood of a seismic event when it rains too? Lot of water falling on the ocean you know.
     
    sassyalice likes this.
  2. Bubblesong

    Bubblesong Marine Scientist

    # of Dives: 50 - 99
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    I do have a BA Biology, so I might only have weight in arguing with anti-vaccination nuts. I don't have a degree in Atmospheric Or Meteorology, which is more applicable to this discussion. My sister is the geo-physics degree, and we are speculating on the connection between sea level changes and recent increases in severe earthquakes, not that Scientific American is going to put US on the front page.
    Whether or not you, yourself, have a degree in meteorology, I respect and listen to your opinions, but don't have to agree on every point. I hope you would also consider alternate ideas as well.
    More importantly, it helps in these discussions to offer solutions, not just laments. My daily eco-effort is not trashing plastic, but recycling or not using it in first place. I am certainly open to hearing your own positive choices, should you choose to share ideas. Peace.
     
    northernone likes this.
  3. Bubblesong

    Bubblesong Marine Scientist

    # of Dives: 50 - 99
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    The melting of the ice caps is not comparible to rain, unless it is 70 meters deep puddles:

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/terms/antarctic_ice_sheet.htm
     
  4. RyanT

    RyanT Solo Diver

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    Hurricane Irma was the strongest Atlantic storm recorded outside of the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico basin. It also holds the record for longest sustained wind speeds at 185 mph or greater.
     
  5. RyanT

    RyanT Solo Diver

    # of Dives: 500 - 999
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    So you're saying that a massive gas planet with a completely different atmosphere is going to have the same storm dynamics as here on earth?
     
  6. The Chairman

    The Chairman Chairman of the Board

    # of Dives: I just don't log dives
    Location: Cave Country!
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    Irma has left an indelible mark on the Caribbean, that it was followed by Jose and now Maria makes this an unprecedented weather year. Humans have a nascent need to understand. We will make tenuous connections and revise them as additional data corroborates or contradicts our theories.

    It's logical to me that warmer oceans will create more and stronger hurricanes. Until such time as @Skeptic14 can provide evidence contrary to that, I've got no reason to abandon that theory. I'm OK with the fact that there are many contributing factors that determine frequency and strength of hurricanes, and so we will see some years more active than others. Still, it doesn't take a meteorologist to understand the correlation between warmer oceans and stronger storms. Sure, I get the political need (and expediency) to shout down any and every post that warns us of the dangers of global warming. I find it anathema that politics shapes science rather than the other way around. Greed and negligence should never be the impetus behind legislative initiatives. Science doesn't have a political agenda and neither does truth. Let's get off of the emotional/political rollercoaster and let science determine our environmental policy.
     
  7. chrisch

    chrisch Solo Diver

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    The increased warming of the oceans creates conditions of humidity which will predispose the weather to both more frequent and more severe storms. The increase may be quite small due to the random nature of the precursor conditions needed. However, I think it is generally accepted that the current changes in global climatic conditions will increase the hurricanes in the Caribbean.
     
  8. oldschoolto

    oldschoolto Regular of the Pub

    # of Dives: I'm a Fish!
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    So when we have another 8 , 10, 15 years without big storms will you say hey, We are wrong... Or, Going to keep drinking the cool-aid and cherry picking data.. The Earth is 4 billion years old.. We just like to think we matter... I watched Mt Saint Helen blow her self up in 1980 from about 9 miles away... Believe me.. We are a barnacle on a blue Whales tail.. just a long for the ride..

    Jim...
     
    EdC likes this.
  9. Skeptic14

    Skeptic14 Manta Ray

    # of Dives: 50 - 99
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    There are two significant caveats in your factual statement:

    recorded - we've been keeping record of atlantic storms but not strengths for only ~100 years and only accurately keeping record of strength for maybe ~50. The earth is 4.5 billion years old and our continents and oceans have been what they are today for the last ~60million years.

    outside the Caribbean/GoM - there have been a handful of equally/more powerful depending on whether you look at wind, pressure, surge hurricanes dating back around 50 years and of course this doesn't even look at the Pacific, Indian and other areas of the globe with cyclones/typhoons.

    While your statement is true, attempting to draw any conclusion regarding anthropogenic climate change based upon one storm is highly unscientific, which is what the OP's link does.

    If only it were so simple that warmer water directly equated to more and stronger hurricanes, maybe we'd have accurate climate models by now. But of course it isn't that simple, and of course cherry picking the years and the storms based on emotion (confirmation bias) isn't scientific.

    I don't know if that is generally accepted or not, this read is interesting I think:

    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landseaetal-science06.pdf
     
    Joneill likes this.
  10. Skeptic14

    Skeptic14 Manta Ray

    # of Dives: 50 - 99
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    Exactly, there is nothing scientific about cherry picking a single data point and drawing conclusions based upon that single data point.

    Picking the 2017 hurricane season and Irma in particularly as evidence of anthropogenic climate change is no different than a "science denier" picking 2015 and saying "see not many storms and no big ones, ain't no stinking AGW!".
     

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