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When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

Discussion in 'General Asia' started by jjmochi, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. Angelo Farina

    Angelo Farina Marine Scientist

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: Parma, ITALY
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  2. Ripley

    Ripley DIR Practitioner

    # of Dives: 25 - 49
    Location: Belgium
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  3. HKGuns

    HKGuns Barracuda

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    Location: Merica
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    China is already returning to normal. The dire predictions of Doom are in my view, incorrect.

    All will be fine by June or even earlier in most areas.
     
  4. Colliam7

    Colliam7 Tech Instructor Staff Member

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: Kents Store, VA
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    Some people will make decisions that many / most will consider to be 'very bad'. It is tragic. But, it is what it is.

    What can 'we' - the rest of us on SB - do to help? Let's stay positive. The world is not ending. Life as we know it is not ending - OK, maybe it is changed a bit, but it goes on. Let's work to deal with this reality, and learn from it. Maybe, if that nurse had been able to see that, she would have made a different decision. Or, maybe not. In any event, I m not willing to let everything go to hell. I will probably lose some friends to COVID-19. Possibly, some family members. I would eventually lose them anyway (or they would lose me first). But, if we look for the positive, we will not only survive, we will grow.
     
  5. Ghost95

    Ghost95 Barracuda

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: Florida
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    Without reading all the responses...1 to 4 months depending on how the news incites a panic.

    If everyone would stay home we could be done pretty quickly and back to normal.
     
  6. BRT

    BRT Giant Squid

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    How do you calculate that 5% number? It would be the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. You have no idea of the number of cases because only part of the really sick people are being tested and almost none of the people with minor or no symptoms are being tested. When I see how many celebrities and world leaders that have the virus with few symptoms I am aware that the only reason they know they have the virus is because they are celebrities and world leader and are first in line for the tests. Without knowing the number of cases you cannot know the death rate. Without knowing the death rate you cannot predict how many will die. You also cannot predict what percentage of the population simply will not get the infection. That number will very much affect any calculation based on deaths divided by infections because the number of people who die will equal
    "total people in the world" * (deaths/(cases + people who don't get the virus))
     
  7. Angelo Farina

    Angelo Farina Marine Scientist

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: Parma, ITALY
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    In fact I considered 5% of the really sick, which are the only cases currently tested here in Italy. The number of infected but not sick is currently estimated to be 4-5 times larger than the number of tested positive here in Italy.
    And actually we are well beyond 5%...
    If it is true that the denominator is 5 times larger, then it means tha the death rate is around 1% of the total infected.
    So, if 30 millions Italians get the virus, we expect 300,000 deaths.
    Some estimates are worst, some are better, but the order of magnitude is this one. Let say the range is between 100,000 and 500,000.
    In comparison, the 8000 yearly deaths due to normal flu are nothing....
     
  8. Centrals

    Centrals Barangay Pasaway

    # of Dives:
    Location: Hong Kong
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    The lockdown on City of Wuhan will be partially lifted on 08th Apr. Given the long incubation period of this Chinese/COVID-19/Wuhan virus, May is the earliest if everything goes right and that only applies to china.
    How long would Africa and Central and South America remain relatively unaffected is anybody's guess?
     
  9. Angelo Farina

    Angelo Farina Marine Scientist

    # of Dives: 1,000 - 2,499
    Location: Parma, ITALY
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    With these numbers, I really cannot see how the situation can be back to normal in 2-3 months...
    Perhaps in 2-3 years, if we are lucky...
     
    Colliam7 likes this.
  10. runsongas

    runsongas Great White

    # of Dives: 500 - 999
    Location: California - Bay Area
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    the only way we will get to 200 million is dead is if the economic depression after this is bad enough to start World War 3. It may not even hit 100k at the current rate because of quarantine and social distancing measures already in place.
     
    Colliam7 likes this.

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