OP
Jarhead
Contributor
Rick: We're trying to put together an Empire Mica trip for Oct. 25th. we have to have at least 10 divers. Interested?
Jarhead
Jarhead
Trip Report - Panama City/Hydrospace
- Thread starter Jarhead
- Start date
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got4boyz
Contributor
Yup, I hadn't checked Isidore yet this morning. Looks like she made landfall. I didn't realize Lili was heading that way when I was checking out her position yesterday. It didn't show Florida on the map yesterday and I didn't know where Jamaica and all were in relationship to Florida. So unfortunately it does appear as if she's heading towards Panama City. Hopefully she will break up, it looks very possible. Here is this morning's report:
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 M/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LILI IS VERY DISORGANIZED AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LILI AND IF THEY CANNOT FIND A CENTER...THEN LILI WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM FROM THE CENTER.
Praying for a breakup!
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 M/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LILI IS VERY DISORGANIZED AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LILI AND IF THEY CANNOT FIND A CENTER...THEN LILI WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM FROM THE CENTER.
Praying for a breakup!
Gotta go watch Auburn stomp LSU on Saturday - gotta work Friday...
Rick
OP
Jarhead
Contributor
WTNT33 KNHC 261445
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 26 2002
...LILI DISSIPATING...
AFTER EXTENSIVELY INVESTIGATING LILI...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINED THAT LILI HAS DEGENERATED INTO
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.
HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF LILI SINCE THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT LILI COULD RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE REMNANTS OF LILI WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.
THE REMNANTS OF LILI ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EVEN THOUGH LILI IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ITS
REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND LILI COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
AGAIN TOMORROW OR SATURDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...15.2 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LILI UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANTS OF LILI CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 26 2002
...LILI DISSIPATING...
AFTER EXTENSIVELY INVESTIGATING LILI...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINED THAT LILI HAS DEGENERATED INTO
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.
HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF LILI SINCE THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT LILI COULD RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE REMNANTS OF LILI WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.
THE REMNANTS OF LILI ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EVEN THOUGH LILI IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ITS
REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND LILI COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
AGAIN TOMORROW OR SATURDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...15.2 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LILI UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANTS OF LILI CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
got4boyz
Contributor
Let's hope Lili stays away.
Thanks for the update. Hopefully we can make our dive trip after all.
Thanks for the update. Hopefully we can make our dive trip after all.
psych28
Guest
=-) Here is a bit of a late report on Hydospace trip on 22 Sep. I really don't have much to add Jarhead & Josh have fully reported the events. It was extremly hot in my tent @ St. Andrews so, I slept outside of my tent ! I'm a newby diver in fact, Sunday made my 13th dive. I'm beginning to wonder about that date?? Roughest seas I've ever been in------ To top it all off I was under weighted so, I had to come back on board & start all over! With that dive behind me I can now say "It was good training" Thanks to Jarhead and Josh for the transpo and accomadations. SEE YOU AT EMPIRE MICA!!!
OP
Jarhead
Contributor
to the ScubaBoard! You're welcome to ride anytime.
Jarhead
Jarhead
Looks like the reports of Lili's pending doom may have been a bit premature...
---------------------------------
satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is a little better
organized but the center is still located near the southwestern edge
of the convection. Dvorak T-numbers suggest that Lili is a tropical
storm. However...the intensity is kept at 30 knots until a
reconnaissance plane checks the system in a few hours. As suggested
by most of the global models...the shear has been gradually
decreasing and unanimously...all models forecast the development of
a 200 mb anticyclone over Lili. This upper-level pattern combined
with the high upper oceanic heat content or high octane fuel which
prevails over the ocean south of Cuba...would provide a very
favorable environment for strengthening during the next few days.
Both ships and GFDL models make Lili a powerful hurricane south of
Cuba...assuming that the cyclone remains over water.
Lili has been moving toward the west-northwest at 9 knots. This
motion is highly uncertain since the cyclone is in the process of
reformation and the center is not well defined. However...Lili
should decrease in forward speed and will likely be meandering
between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next 24 to 72
hours. Thereafter...a mid-level ridge is forecast to expand from
the Bahamas westward across the southeastern United States. This
pattern would provide a general west-to west-northwest steering with
a gradual increase in forward speed. This is consistent with most
of the guidance which on average show another strong hurricane
somewhere between northern Yucatan and the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Once again...there is a chance of trouble in the horizon.
Forecaster Avila
-----------------------------
Rick
---------------------------------
satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is a little better
organized but the center is still located near the southwestern edge
of the convection. Dvorak T-numbers suggest that Lili is a tropical
storm. However...the intensity is kept at 30 knots until a
reconnaissance plane checks the system in a few hours. As suggested
by most of the global models...the shear has been gradually
decreasing and unanimously...all models forecast the development of
a 200 mb anticyclone over Lili. This upper-level pattern combined
with the high upper oceanic heat content or high octane fuel which
prevails over the ocean south of Cuba...would provide a very
favorable environment for strengthening during the next few days.
Both ships and GFDL models make Lili a powerful hurricane south of
Cuba...assuming that the cyclone remains over water.
Lili has been moving toward the west-northwest at 9 knots. This
motion is highly uncertain since the cyclone is in the process of
reformation and the center is not well defined. However...Lili
should decrease in forward speed and will likely be meandering
between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next 24 to 72
hours. Thereafter...a mid-level ridge is forecast to expand from
the Bahamas westward across the southeastern United States. This
pattern would provide a general west-to west-northwest steering with
a gradual increase in forward speed. This is consistent with most
of the guidance which on average show another strong hurricane
somewhere between northern Yucatan and the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Once again...there is a chance of trouble in the horizon.
Forecaster Avila
-----------------------------
Rick
got4boyz
Contributor
And I was just starting to get my hopes up!
OP
Jarhead
Contributor
You need some more chickens, Rick. 
Jarhead
Jarhead
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