Dan Grenier lost at sea.

[medic_diver45]

Yes, it is possible, but not likely that (I'd put the chances at worse than 1 in 1,000,000) one or both of them are alive. I don't think anyone is serving the best interest of all those involved by feeding the family members and friends with wild tales of survival (which are often embellished). There is a thing worse than losing someone, and that is losing someone and having someone continue to elude that they maybe alive somewhere. Given the circumstances- divers alone in rough seas, strong currents and no way of getting out of the water- they most likely would not have drifted as far as some may think (based on "The life raft in CASE A drifted this distance, that must have happened in this case."). If nothing has been found after a long intensive search, then most likely (and if I were leading the search, I'd be comfortable doing so at this point) the case should be more or less closed with the outcome listed as "indeterminate pending further evidence- victims whereabouts unknown."

 

[Shasta_man]

So, ah Medic, what is your point? Do you think they'll quit because some scuba forum guy sitting in his living room, says it's over?

According to your beliefs, you believe them gone for good. OK. So you can go on.

However, their loved ones are never going to give up, regardless of how many facts you assemble to push them to that conclusion. I know I would never give up until I found their remains. You can go on home, but I don't give up because they're my loved ones and I leave nothing undone to find them.

I think you've made your point that the chance is very slim and we all know that. However, the last thing I would want to see is some unrelated person discouraging anyone from helping me try. They just found some girl wrapped around a tree for the last eight days who was still alive with no food and water and with a blood clot in her brain. Anything is possible, however unlikely.

Yes, it is possible, but not likely that (I'd put the chances at worse than 1 in 1,000,000) one or both of them are alive. I don't think anyone is serving the best interest of all those involved by feeding the family members and friends with wild tales of survival (which are often embellished). There is a thing worse than losing someone, and that is losing someone and having someone continue to elude that they maybe alive somewhere. Given the circumstances- divers alone in rough seas, strong currents and no way of getting out of the water- they most likely would not have drifted as far as some may think (based on "The life raft in CASE A drifted this distance, that must have happened in this case."). If nothing has been found after a long intensive search, then most likely (and if I were leading the search, I'd be comfortable doing so at this point) the case should be more or less closed with the outcome listed as "indeterminate pending further evidence- victims whereabouts unknown."

 

[toyna0117]

Shata Man,

Well said! Thank You.

Dan's Sister, Janet

 

[saildiver]

We all have our own opinions-but those who are still actively searching do not feel they are wasting their time!To help everyone-especially the families, friends and donors -stay posted on the latest search updates from Fiji as they come in,we decided to set up a separate thread,more appropriately entitled- "Dan Grenier and Danielle Gibbons search update",under the Australia & the Pacific Islands heading, as of yesterday.The search goes on ......Saildiver.

 

[Ginmill01]

I check in every day to read any news. This is a tragedy to the families, friends and all fellow divers. We know any sport can be dangerous, but this case is especially hard hitting to the many people who know both Dan and Danielle. It feels like worrying about a friend, even if we only dived with them for a week.

 

[rhino61]

Thanks shasta man!!!!!!!
Sorry Steve, you may be right, but don't take away our resolve on finding them mate!

 

[saildiver]

Yes, it is possible, but not likely that (I'd put the chances at worse than 1 in 1,000,000) one or both of them are alive. I don't think anyone is serving the best interest of all those involved by feeding the family members and friends with wild tales of survival (which are often embellished). There is a thing worse than losing someone, and that is losing someone and having someone continue to elude that they maybe alive somewhere. Given the circumstances- divers alone in rough seas, strong currents and no way of getting out of the water- they most likely would not have drifted as far as some may think (based on "The life raft in CASE A drifted this distance, that must have happened in this case."). If nothing has been found after a long intensive search, then most likely (and if I were leading the search, I'd be comfortable doing so at this point) the case should be more or less closed with the outcome listed as "indeterminate pending further evidence- victims whereabouts unknown."

Hey Medic Diver---I just looked up your profile and discovered 1) I'm not sure if you're even certified, but you admit to not diving any deeper than 30ft. and I'm not sure if you've been diving out of Indiana and 2) you are not a medical doctor. Now I don't want to put you down because I think it's great that you're pursuing scuba and medicine and I definitely think you're entitled to your opinion. However, for you to quote "odds" of their survival based on opinion and stated as fact is not only misleading, but hurtful. I somehow have the feeling you really don't know much about currents, rough seas, or either one of these divers. Please don't put quantitative figures on things that have no basis in fact.

 

[smlnd]

…Danielle's BCD was found in the water near shore. However, it was missing the cover to the dump valve. The straps were undone, so it appeared to have been ditched. There was a little scraping from the coral, and the mouthpieces to both the regulator and the octopus were quite damaged. Mike Dennis inspected the gear, and he couldn't tell if they were bitten through or torn up on the coral. There was no evidence of shark bite. The BCD was apparently in good working condition when Danielle went into the water, as she had used it on her first dive with no problems….

Thanks MaryMuir, that was helpful. I know that we are limited by time and distance but it seems to me the best chance at a key is figuring out as much as possible what happened from what we know and what we think is most likely. I’ll make a couple of assumptions, please respond if you can. The BC was found with the tank and regulator attached. The BC would not hold air, as found, because of the missing dump valve cover. The BC/Tank/Reg assembly drifted onto the reef. I assume that the BC either was not weight integrated or if it was, the weights had been released? For the assembly to drift, I assume that the tank was empty? When the regulator was examined and hooked up to a fresh tank did it function properly? Was the power inflator valve examined? Was it functioning or did it free-flow (into the BC that wouldn’t hold air).

When you say the BC straps were undone do you mean both the chest and the shoulder straps or just the chest?

When Dan and Danielle entered the water on that dive did they hover and link up on the surface before descending? Or did Danielle and Dan go straight down upon entry? I wonder if the BC was damaged on the boat between dives or during entry. Where Dan and Danielle wearing buoyant exposure suits? Were they wearing separate weight belts? I assume that their point of entry has been searched and no weights or weight belts were found. When the boat dropped them off did it stay in the area at all or did it leave as soon as possible? Did anyone watch their bubbles as they descended? If so did they appear to stay together and go in the direction planned?

Are the tides and the currents predictable with the day of the month and the Moon phase? Can a team of divers go in and try to drift their most likely path? A float and a line and a following boat would be good. Are there a lot of obstacles on the bottom where they entered or is it pretty clear?

I know that’s a lot of questions but like detectives trying to solve a case sometimes going over and over what we know and what is most likely is the best shot.

Thanks again,

BC

 

[DocVikingo]

No reason to start a separate thread just for search updates of the sort you posted, so I have merged this with the original posting on Dan & Danielle's disappearance.

Long as I'm here, since you object to medic_diver45's remarks, largely on the basis that he appears to be an inexperienced diver and isn't a medical doctor, let me offer that I may pass the muster on both of those criteria being a certified diver for over 30 years and a licensed doctor for over 28. Also, I knew Dan, we were fellow Vietnam vets, from the same part of the US, dove together, I had met Lynette, Alesi & his young sons, etc.

I very strongly agree with medic_diver45. I personally think that this search situation has crossed the line into the obsessional. I also don't think anyone is serving the best interests of all involved by continued fanning of wildly unrealistic hopes and the spending of money that might be more usefully applied elsewhere, such as supporting Dan's family, starting a school fund for Cody & Dakota, or the like

Hopefully, I'm mistaken, but given that they now have been missing for nearly 6 weeks without a scintilla of evidence that they are still alive, I very, very much doubt it.

Best regards.

DocVikingo

 

[smlnd]

Hi Doc,

You may be correct and reasonable but I don’t see how the family and loved ones can do a very good job of moving on without a better idea of what happened. Dan and I became instructors in the same class a dozen years ago (as did a couple of names on the list of those involved in searching and thanked here). Mike Dennis was in the class four years later and I staffed his ITC. These guys are knowledgeable and motivated. If they say nothing else can be done, I’ll accept it and stop asking questions. If any of them are still looking I think hope for at least some answers is a good thing.

Does anyone know, is there any history of divers disappearing never to be heard from again in this area?

Bruce Campbell