Yep. I never intend to need my pony. My gear is always in top shape (I do my own maintenance) and I feel I can totally depend on it not to fail. I watch my air carefully and dive conservatively.
Do I carry my pony? On every dive no matter how shallow. I won't ever need to use it - till I do. It's a small addition to carry. I'd rather have it and never need it than need it and not have it.
I don't see carrying a pony on all dives as "a small addition." It needs to be donned and doffed, kept filled, kept in hydro and visual, tested, practiced with, etc. To me, that's not an insignificant amount of stuff to do, in comparison with the alternatives, which may involve a combination of things mentioned earlier in this thread, such as always diving with a reliable, similarly trained buddy, and/or diving conservatively (or even more conservatively).
So, if you estimate that because of your gear maintenance, conservative diving, and good skills in general, you might genuinely need to use the pony only once out of every, I dunno, one-thousand dives, is the hassle worth it? At my rate, I won't hit my thousandth dive for another ten years. And I would think that the more conservatively I dive, the higher that number of dives would become. If I'm diving so conservatively that all I do are 50-minute bimbles on 50-foot tropical reefs, maybe I could do 10,000 of those without ever needing emergency gas from a pony. Whatever the actual number, I'm estimating it's pretty high. Seems to me it's a continuum--there is no bright line--and we all just have to weigh the likelihood in our heads based on our individual circumstances.
To me, the quest is to find the least-intrusive means that will keep me safe within some statistical estimate, given how
I dive. There are lots of safety things I could employ--for example, I could carry a PLB on every dive, or I could test every tank for carbon monoxide--but I don't because I weighed the value and decided the potential benefit isn't worth the hassle. I know there are divers who always carry a PLB, divers who always test for CO, etc. Given the kind of diving I do, testing every tank for CO would probably, statistically speaking, improve my safety more than diving with a pony. (No near-freezing water for me, thanks.)