Future aka New Normal

[Indah]

Good luck, Indah. You are trying to use facts in a discussion with folks who confuse facts with opinions, and cherry pick information to agree with their opinions. It is a losing battle, and not worth fighting. The old saying is, "Never wrestle with a pig. You just get dirty, and the pig loves it."

Some people I will never try to convince. But for this complicated topic I still do not have any strong opinion myself. The discussion forces me to look at (new) facts again. And I learn how different people look at it in total different ways. One huge thing I learned is the saying about the pig. Great way to describe some situations. I posted a link to an article in my other comment. It makes clear how complicated it is and how little we know (although much more than 3 months ago).

 

[KenGordon]

Some people I will never try to convince. But for this complicated topic I still do not have any strong opinion myself. The discussion forces me to look at (new) facts again. And I learn how different people look at it in total different ways. One huge thing I learned is the saying about the pig. Great way to describe some situations. I posted a link to an article in my other comment. It makes clear how complicated it is and how little we know (although much more than 3 months ago).

I would recommend the Coronavirus thread in the pub to you too. It is very interesting to see how different people address the problem. There is a significant set who seem to take the same approach as the Black Knight

Black Knight (Monty Python) - Wikipedia

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

In an experiment you control the conditions. We hardly do that. Okay, let's say 0.3%. Indonesia, population 270 million. 60% will be infected until herd immunity (best prognose) as long there is no vaccine. Means 486.000 would die because of Covid. But if the rate of 0.3% is an average, including countries with much better healthcare than Indonesia and comparable countries, this number could be much higher in those poorer countries.

In an experiment you control the conditions.

I think the governments controlled the conditions pretty well, I mean the majority of the world was effectively shut down

Okay, let's say 0.3%. Indonesia, population 270 million. 60% will be infected until herd immunity (best prognose) as long there is no vaccine. Means 486.000 would die because of Covid.

OK, by going by your projected numbers, if it was a flu outbreak, around 200,000 people would die

So should we lock down the world again to stop those 200,000 people from dying?

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

In an experiment you control the conditions. We hardly do that. Okay, let's say 0.3%. Indonesia, population 270 million. 60% will be infected until herd immunity (best prognose) as long there is no vaccine. Means 486.000 would die because of Covid. But if the rate of 0.3% is an average, including countries with much better healthcare than Indonesia and comparable countries, this number could be much higher in those poorer countries.

Some Forms of Common Cold May Give COVID-19 Immunity Lasting up to 17 Years, New Research Suggests

Professor Antonio Bertoletti, an immunologist from the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore, and his team....virologist Angela Rasmussen of Columbia University agrees with the Singaporean team.

Your 60% assumption about herd immunity may be in the ball park of some of the latest research

 

[KenGordon]

OK, by going by your projected numbers, if it was a flu outbreak, around 200,000 people would die

The R number for flu is much lower than that of Covid 19. The purpose of the lockdown efforts is to bring down the R number of Covid 19. There are vaccines for flu, and there is existing resistance as flu has been about for a while. So you aren’t less likely to get flu, and less likely to die from it.

Thousands do die in flu outbreaks, but not as many as are dying from Covid 19.

So should we lock down the world again to stop those 200,000 people from dying?

That depends on how you value lives vs the stuff that stops in a lockdown. I really need a haircut, how many people should die for that?

There are complications of course, some stuff which has been banned probably is not so important, but it takes a while to work out really matters. A lot of measures have no basis in science and are just rules of thumb. Clearly though, flying people from places like the U.K., Spain, Italy or parts of the US to NZ would be a mistake.

My view is the future normal will have to wait for the rate of infection to drop so that the risk of meeting someone with the disease is very low. Diving off of boats means being in close quarters while snotty. If those people are a randomly collection of strangers from all over the world, which is a common experience of diving in Indonesia, then transmission is inevitable. On the other hand it is possible to have only a couple of people in a small boat, but the cost per head may be too high. On top of that there is the issue of travel. It takes me two flights and a whole day to get there. As an airline passenger I am not at all in control of my environment. It isn’t worth the risk to me to do that without treatment options or the infection being properly suppressed.

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

That depends on how you value lives vs the stuff that stops in a lockdown.

I think that that's being demonstrated right now by the millions of people all around the world protesting and outraged by the death of 1 man

 

[chillyinCanada]

I think that that's being demonstrated right now by the millions of people all around the world protesting and outraged by the death of 1 man

But they aren't outraged by the death of one man; his murder was merely the catalyst, the straw that broke the camel's back.

With regard to the Covid19, there are some number fewer desths of those hospitalized because the doctors have learned better how to treat the patients. For one thing, not as many ventilators are being used as was originally anticipated. It is oxygen that the lungs and body need and forcing gas into the lungs could do more harm than good.
There are others who became ill, some hospitalized, some not, that have ended up with what's being referred to as the "long tail" of the Covid. It goes on for weeks afterwards and with a variety of symptoms, some that we donot commonly associate with covid.

Are you willing to risk, not dying? And in a foreign country to boot?

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

It isn’t worth the risk to me to do that without treatment options or the infection being properly suppressed.

So where would you source your information from in regards to risk?

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

But they aren't outraged by the death of one man;

I think it's not offensive to say that you may be way off the mark. Also that, that comment might be interpreted as offensive to some

 

[Indah]

I think the governments controlled the conditions pretty well, I mean the majority of the world was effectively shut down



OK, by going by your projected numbers, if it was a flu outbreak, around 200,000 people would die

So should we lock down the world again to stop those 200,000 people from dying?

Most governments "just tried their best" to manage the behaviour of their population. All the other factors were not known yet. Not even if we should wear masks or not. In Indonesia this failed. In Sweden as well.
This number of 486.000 would be for Indonesia only: 270.000.000 x 60% = 162.000.000. 0.3% of that is 486.000. Worst flu year in the USA 60.000 deaths. Did you find numbers of 200.000 deaths in Indonesia by the flu?