Future aka New Normal

[Indah]

I would recommend the Coronavirus thread in the pub to you too. It is very interesting to see how different people address the problem. There is a significant set who seem to take the same approach as the Black Knight

Black Knight (Monty Python) - Wikipedia

Where is this pub?

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

How did you come to the number of 200.000 deaths by the flu in Indonesia?

You came up with 486,000 deaths by covid in Indonesia using 0.3% formula
I came up with 200,00 using 0.123% formula

 

[Indah]

You came up with 486,000 deaths by covid in Indonesia using 0.3% formula
I came up with 200,00 using 0.123% formula

No, I showed what could be the future. 0.123 of which number? Assuming that 60% of the people of Indonesia would be infected with the flu? Why would this happen? What does it has to do with this ongoing COVID-19 pandemic?

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

In an experiment you control the conditions. We hardly do that. Okay, let's say 0.3%. Indonesia, population 270 million. 60% will be infected until herd immunity (best prognose) as long there is no vaccine. Means 486.000 would die because of Covid. But if the rate of 0.3% is an average, including countries with much better healthcare than Indonesia and comparable countries, this number could be much higher in those poorer countries.

According to an editorial published in NEJM by Anthony Fauci and Clifford Lane from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and CDC director Robert Redfield, the true death rate for the coronavirus could end up being below 1%, which would make it similar to the death rate seen in a severe flu season.

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

No, I showed what could be the future. 0.123 of which number? Assuming that 60% of the people of Indonesia would be infected with the flu? Why would this happen? What does it has to do with this ongoing COVID-19 pandemic?

According to an editorial published in NEJM by Anthony Fauci and Clifford Lane from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and CDC director Robert Redfield, the true death rate for the coronavirus could end up being below 1%, which would make it similar to the death rate seen in a severe flu season.

So flu death rate and covid death rate are being compared as probably similar by some important health officials and experts, maybe you've heard of their names before

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted
List of authors.Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

 

[markmud]

Your 60% assumption about herd immunity may be in the ball park of some of the latest research

The article you linked is excellent. We have so many anomalies with SARS-Cov-2. This may explain a few of those anomalies.

Please explain your statement above. The information that I am garnering suggests that herd immunity from SARS-Cov-2 is much lower than 60%. Many people, and even certain demographics seem to be, as communities, somewhat immune to the virus (kids for example). If we add people who have some form of natural immunity, to the people who have gained immunity from some other form of SARS (MERS), and even the common cold, your stated 60% for herd immunity is completely blown out of the water.

Swedes were estimating that herd immunity in Stockholm would be reached at about 35%. I will search their sites to gain information on why they chose 35%.

To iterate, reasonably healthy young people who are active and fit, have relatively little to fear from SARS-Cov-2. The sky is not falling; the data is rolling in everyday. Lock down the weak, lock down the morbidly obese, and lock down people of all ages who have comorbidities and allow the healthy amongst us to fight this virus.

To date, we don't have vaccines for common colds or Corona viruses for a reason. You may be waiting for decades for an effective vaccine that does not have dangerous side affects. All countries must open their borders and allow measured communication so that countries with limited health care can cope with any outbreaks. Even Indonesia.

Wishing for this virus to go away by hiding from it will never work. Keeping the world closed down will only kill more people from economic related issues. Failing economies are deadly. Wealth is not created by printing it.

cheers,
m²V2

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted
List of authors.Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

Actually Indah, a lot of information coming out is misleading, not accurate & contradictory. A lot has to do with politics but that is another topic that is "out there" & very taboo

I'm glad Indonesia is taking the path to setting up a travel bubble with China. I hope no more disturbance is created again in regards to travel and economies being ruined based on false & damaging information. I actually spent most of this year & at current at a remote location very far from any city in pretty much desert terrain. The people I've talked to lately who've been back to the city, say everything's gone back to normal.

So Indah, I think things aren't gonna really be so much different than before

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

The article you linked is excellent. We have so many anomalies with SARS-Cov-2. This may explain a few of those anomalies.

Please explain your statement above. The information that I am garnering suggests that herd immunity from SARS-Cov-2 is much lower than 60%. Many people, and even certain demographics seem to be, as communities, somewhat immune to the virus (kids for example). If we add people who have some form of natural immunity, to the people who have gained immunity from some other form of SARS (MERS), and even the common cold, your stated 60% for herd immunity is completely blown out of the water.

Swedes were estimating that herd immunity in Stockholm would be reached at about 35%. I will search their sites to gain information on why they chose 35%.

To iterate, reasonably healthy young people who are active and fit, have relatively little to fear from SARS-Cov-2. The sky is not falling; the data is rolling in everyday. Lock down the weak, lock down the morbidly obese, and lock down people of all ages who have comorbidities and allow the healthy amongst us to fight this virus.

To date, we don't have vaccines for common colds or Corona viruses for a reason. You may be waiting for decades for an effective vaccine that does not have dangerous side affects. All countries must open their borders and allow measured communication so that countries with limited health care can cope with any outbreaks. Even Indonesia.

Wishing for this virus to go away by hiding from it will never work. Keeping the world closed down will only kill more people from economic related issues. Failing economies are deadly. Wealth is not created by printing it.

cheers,
m²V2

Please explain your statement above

More or less I meant that 50% or half of the people in the Singapore study showed signs of immunity to covid-19. And when Indah said 60% herd immunity, I was comparing it to 50%

But I understand now what you mean. Herd immunity being specifically immune by already being infected by covid-19

To date, we don't have vaccines for common colds or Corona viruses for a reason.

So many people waiting for a covid vaccine like it's a flu vaccine. But how long does a flu vaccine last?... only effective for 3-6 months.

People don't even realise that they could already be immune to covid-19, it's too far for people to fathom. I'm not sure about this, but it sure wouldn't surprise me

 

[markmud]

Actually Indah, a lot of information coming out is misleading, not accurate & contradictory. A lot has to do with politics but that is another topic that is "out there" & very taboo

Hi Indah and DownUnderwater Dan,

The numbers coming from the US cannot be trusted. The 100,000+ death toll needs to be reviewed. A $29,000 dollar bonus is a huge incentive to intubate. I believe the bonus is $13,000 for every case. Follow the money and you will find cheating. The stories are starting to pop up. My point: Don't use U.S. numbers for comparison, they may be overblown.

So Indah, I think things aren't gonna really be so much different than before

Here in the USA where I have been travelling, life is getting back to normal. Most of us have easy access to government supplied data. We analyze their data and our conclusions are different from what we see on TV. SARS-Cov-2 discriminates. It is a microcosm for life itself. The weak succumb while the strong survive, and quite well I might add.

Protecting the weak is the Strategy moving forward. If you are a weak individual, physically and mentally, you should hide from SARS-Cov-2. The strong need to join the battle.

cheers,
m²V2