Invest 96 bears watching

[lamont]

as of 8pm EST tonight the models are sending it directly over cozumel, 8pm monday to 8am tuesday:

maximum predicted intensification right now is only 50mph (tropical storm strength).

looks like you may get wet.

 

[DandyDon]

Here's the forecast for the next day and a half...

Edit: changing my image to a direct link pic that will auto update like Lamont's until the storm dies. Looks like it will be on Coz before morning with a 60% chance of rain. Hope that's all it is.

 

[Jim Baldwin]

I was up this morning before daylight and started putting up some conduit and pulling wire for a new security light in the backyard. There was absolutely no wind and even before the sun came up I was sweating. When the sun hit my east wall it was miserable.

About 10 a.m. it had started to sprinkle a little and by 10:15 it was completed clouded over and pouring down. Here it is almost 11 a nice breeze and the rain has quit. Looks like it may be over for a while. It definitely cooled things off.

 

[DandyDon]

I was up this morning before daylight and started putting up some conduit and pulling wire for a new security light in the backyard. There was absolutely no wind and even before the sun came up I was sweating. When the sun hit my east wall it was miserable.

About 10 a.m. it had started to sprinkle a little and by 10:15 it was completed clouded over and pouring down. Here it is almost 11 a nice breeze and the rain has quit. Looks like it may be over for a while. It definitely cooled things off.

In Coz? Here is the one to watch for LA Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

 

[BTravlin]

Check this site out. Point at any city and it gives you the distance from the center of the storm. Towards the upper right, check "forecast models" on to show projected path.

Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

 

[CZMDM]

NOAA misjudged the center of the Low. The position given went from 17.1N to 21.1N in 4 hours. This is not possible....the low either shifted or was just misjudged, which is not uncommon. The Low (96L) is now North of the island (CZM-20.29), but there is still a lot of convection to the South and East which should affect the island as the storm is passing to the NNW. A couple of days of rain should be the extent of it.

I like Stormpulse's mapping system, but the site was highly inaccurate with TS Alex as it had the storm's location several hundred miles off from all other weather sites during most of the storms run. For accuracy in location and direction I like using the printed coordinates. Tracking models are very rarely close when any given storm is more than 2 days away. It is not uncommon to see model storm tracks change by hundreds of miles with every new model run. NOAA states that storm track predicitions of a storm more than 3 days out have only a 30% accuracy rate.

 

[DandyDon]

Yeah the new updates (both pics are auto updating) show it headed north of island for the Gulf of Mexico.

 

[lamont]

Thought I wrote something about how the tracks had a good chance of moving, but looks like I deleted that, in favor of the comments about max intensification...

Tracks for Invests before they get organized seem particularly bad, and the centers tend to hop around. That far out the predicted storm tracks are almost what isn't going to happen. Of course sometimes storms stall out and rapidly intensify and it could have gone the other way and you could have had a hurricane off to your southeast...

NOAA misjudged the center of the Low. The position given went from 17.1N to 21.1N in 4 hours. This is not possible....the low either shifted or was just misjudged, which is not uncommon. The Low (96L) is now North of the island (CZM-20.29), but there is still a lot of convection to the South and East which should affect the island as the storm is passing to the NNW. A couple of days of rain should be the extent of it.

I like Stormpulse's mapping system, but the site was highly inaccurate with TS Alex as it had the storm's location several hundred miles off from all other weather sites during most of the storms run. For accuracy in location and direction I like using the printed coordinates. Tracking models are very rarely close when any given storm is more than 2 days away. It is not uncommon to see model storm tracks change by hundreds of miles with every new model run. NOAA states that storm track predicitions of a storm more than 3 days out have only a 30% accuracy rate.

 

[CZMDM]

Thought I wrote something about how the tracks had a good chance of moving, but looks like I deleted that, in favor of the comments about max intensification...

Tracks for Invests before they get organized seem particularly bad, and the centers tend to hop around. That far out the predicted storm tracks are almost what isn't going to happen. Of course sometimes storms stall out and rapidly intensify and it could have gone the other way and you could have had a hurricane off to your southeast...

I am with you...I would rather know of any impending danger and see it fizzle out, than not pay attention and have something flare up without time to prepare.

 

[lamont]

I am with you...I would rather know of any impending danger and see it fizzle out, than not pay attention and have something flare up without time to prepare.

Yeah, and apart from the slight hurricane risk it did seem like there was some higher risk for blowing out a day of diving, or at least requiring some site selection, due to vanilla bad weather...