....Dustin (Florida Scuba Charters Captain) tells me the forecast is favorable and don't pay too much attention because it will change 4x before we dive next week.......
Dustin is a good captain and he'll run if it's safe. For JDC I'm guessing you are on the Republic 7 for the 2 tanker friday morning. Usually that is Capt Micheal's (not Mike) boat. He'll also go if it's safe. JDC knows divers are sometime driving distances, so usually they will make the Go/Nogo call about dinner time the night before (make sure they have your cell #)
I agree with others. It's not summertime (Jun to Oct) so 7 days out is too far out to have confidence in any forecast. I'd be more confident on Tuesday morning's model runs for a Friday dive.
As to model runs don't look at just one model/website. They all tweek different parameters and different data points which throws them off. What you are REALLY looking for is AGREEMENT among 3-4 models/websites so you have to compare and see what's in agreement. Below are listed the best models/websites that I use.
For 'backup' plans you have Blue Heron bridge which has a 9am high tide on Fri 4/19 and most people dive it 45 mins before thru 45 mins after high tide (90 mins total). But you'll need to get there early & dive flag is required. Remember that's Easter weekend and all the schools are out. Add in a cruddy ocean and EVERY DIVER will be headed to BHB also. If it was me and blown out 4/19, I would dive BHB in the morning, have an awesome breakfast at Johnny Longboats on Singer Island. Then drive west and go to Lion Country Safari in the afternoon which is a 'drive thru' animal park and very cool. Driving north 3 hr to cave country on Easter weekend with the crowds isn't worth it. And the key's wave models are not much better.
The models/websites I use to compare for agreement are:
Look closely at wind speed but also direction hour by hour to compare differences.
Windfinder
Windfinder.com - Wind and weather forecast Lake Worth Pier
NOAA wave 3
NWW3 Product Viewer
NOAA wave 4
National Weather Service - Graphical Forecast
NOAA Text fcst
National Weather Service Marine Forecast
And most important is the webcam. Yes it has pretty pictures and 'real time' video, but that's not the most important part of the webcam's feature. If you scroll down 2/3rd of the webcam page you'll see a little brown link called "Trends". The trends will list both wind speed and direction. This allows you to look back at what was recorded and then compare it to each of the model/websites and see which one was the most accurate for the last 24 hours. That will increase your confidence on which model/website is currently trending as most accurate. There is no such thing as a single website that is accurate all the time, doesn't work that way.
Jupiter Inlet Webcam
Lots of info, but this is what I use/do when I really want to dive on a set day. Again, it will take until Tuesday morning before the models/websites really start to 'lock-in'. In February this year, all the models were running 12 hours early which was really aggravating so compare to the wind history & direction to see who was best in their predictions.
Hope you guys get out and have a great time !!