Well, then you don't QUITE agree with what I was trying to say. I would not rank being a good swimmer quite as high as "air sharing, how to do a CESA, buddy skills, how to plan a dive" on the scale of the likelihood of skills preventing or mitigating things going badly…
That is entirely dependent on what goes wrong first. I have seen new divers who could barely swim that were primed for panic before leaving the boat. Actually, they didn’t swim all that well with fins. Panic leads to doing stupid things and often cancels out what little training they have. Based on what I have seen in the last 10 years I would say that current Scuba training ranges from barely adequate to terrible.
Add a person who is uncomfortable in the water coupled with the lower end of training quality and you have a disaster waiting to happen. All it takes is a trigger. Fortunately, most panic does not embolize them so they make it to the surface alive. Of course that still doesn’t prevent drowning on the surface.
On the other hand, compare people who are comfortable in the water to how well they do in dive classes. You don’t have to be a competitive swimmer, but the common denominator is they all have endurance… or an underdeveloped sense of self-preservation.
In the grand scheme, it is very unusual for divers to run out of air on the bottom — especially ones who are really concerned about it. They run low quickly, but not out while underwater. Almost every dive involves a surface swim so a BC failure or failure to operate correctly, a bit of kelp, mildly sloppy seas, a lost fin, being over-weighted (like far too many are), or any number of stressors can cause a person to lose it.