Herd Immunity in Indonesia

[Centrals]

We are buying the time for the vaccine to appear!
What would happen if there is none available within next few months or more?
For the mean time wear your mask and wash your hands often.

 

[KenGordon]

The World is at it's most technologically & scientifically advanced stage it's ever been, @ present. Surely there's a better way to protect the small percentage of vulnerable people than to stop the world

How do you tell who is vulnerable? Lock up everyone over 50?

The world has not stopped. It doesn’t need to stop. A bunch of largely optional activities do have to stop and handling the economic fall out from that is what governments should be doing.

 

[chillyinCanada]

How do you tell who is vulnerable? Lock up everyone over 50?

The world has not stopped. It doesn’t need to stop. A bunch of largely optional activities do have to stop and handling the economic fall out from that is what governments should be doing.

And wearing masks washing hand and distancing is what the rest of us should be doing. If any new discoveries of what we tge people should be doing, I will do them.

I'm hoping that a vaccine comes along and maybe with it, will help keep us from the torment of the common cold.

I'm also trying to avoid becoming infected before there are better treatments, at the very least.

Also, the seriousness of the case is related to the viral load. If everyone is wearing masks and staying home if they don't feel well, then even if a person becomes infected, their personal severity should be less, perhaps even asymptomatic.

But even asymptomatic people have been found to have resultant heart problems, especially if they exercised during their illness.

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

How do you tell who is vulnerable? Lock up everyone over 50?

The world has not stopped. It doesn’t need to stop. A bunch of largely optional activities do have to stop and handling the economic fall out from that is what governments should be doing.

I see you put a lot of thought into this

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

The world has not stopped. It doesn’t need to stop. A bunch of largely optional activities do have to stop and handling the economic fall out from that is what governments should be doing.[/QUOTE]

Lock up everyone over 50?

According to the CDC's Covid-19 Pandemic Planning updated 10 days ago, the Infection Fatality Ratio for people aged between 50-69 years is only 0.005%. I don't think that's reason enough to lock up everyone over 50, that would be ludicrous

 

[KenGordon]

The world has not stopped. It doesn’t need to stop. A bunch of largely optional activities do have to stop and handling the economic fall out from that is what governments should be doing.

View attachment 613193



According to the CDC's Covid-19 Pandemic Planning updated 10 days ago, the Infection Fatality Ratio for people aged between 50-69 years is only 0.005%. I don't think that's reason enough to lock up everyone over 50, that would be ludicrous[/QUOTE]
Those are ratios not percentages. It says that 0.5% of 50-69 year olds and 5.4% of 70 to 80 year olds who get the disease will die. On top of that a whole lot of people will be very ill for a long time and may never fully recover.

You will also notice that these get much worse if the R0 is 4 rather than 2.5, in the footnotes they talk about the uncertainty around R0.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Literally hundreds of thousands of people have died already. The only real defence we have at the moment is to keep apart so as to reduce transmission.

If your number was correct and everyone on the planet had already had Covid 19 we would expect 8 billion * 0.005/100 = 40,000 dead, but we are at 950,000 already.

 

[tridacna]

Dan, what approach do you suggest the world should take to the disease? Be specific.

 

[tursiops]

Good point, I should of elaborated further. If the vast majority of people infected with covid show little to no symptoms, it means their bodies although infected, cope with the virus quite well. If the virus is still spreading but 92% of the infected don't require any medical treatment, as in India's case, surely a remodeling of the pandemic planning is in order, evidenced by the fact that covid does not present a serious or mortal danger to the greater public.

Immunity for covid-19 is only measured by antibodies being present, but all studies show covid-19 antibodies only last a few months at the very most.
If immunity is measured by the T-cell immune response to covid-19 which renders an infection to not produce symptoms, then this would be half the world's population at the very least with some form of protection

As with most of your posts, lots of "if"s.

 

[lexvil]

Dan, what approach do you suggest the world should take to the disease?

The one where he gets to make money is my guess, I can understand the sentiment and frustration of those whose livelihoods are deeply impacted, yet so many of those refuse to do the simple act of wearing a mask (at least those in the US) which has been proven to be the most effective treatment yet, prevention.

Barring an effective vaccine which may never come, masks and instant testing are likely the best hope for getting things moving again.

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

View attachment 613193



According to the CDC's Covid-19 Pandemic Planning updated 10 days ago, the Infection Fatality Ratio for people aged between 50-69 years is only 0.005%. I don't think that's reason enough to lock up everyone over 50, that would be ludicrous

Those are ratios not percentages. It says that 0.5% of 50-69 year olds and 5.4% of 70 to 80 year olds who get the disease will die. On top of that a whole lot of people will be very ill for a long time and may never fully recover.

You will also notice that these get much worse if the R0 is 4 rather than 2.5, in the footnotes they talk about the uncertainty around R0.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Literally hundreds of thousands of people have died already. The only real defence we have at the moment is to keep apart so as to reduce transmission.

If your number was correct and everyone on the planet had already had Covid 19 we would expect 8 billion * 0.005/100 = 40,000 dead, but we are at 950,000 already.[/QUOTE]

Those are ratios not percentages.

Yes, not percentages but the ratio is still low

On top of that a whole lot of people will be very ill for a long time and may never fully recover.

What percentage is that?