Any Thoughts on Dorian

[Brules]

Live by my moto:

Don't forget your towel.

 

[TouchO'Gray]

Doubler: Please do not visit Coz around Thanksgiving or Ironman. Please.

 

[Ron Lee]

Even if it hits the Yucatan, that would be next Friday or the day after using ROUGH projections. I would still leave tomorrow or the next two days and deal with any issues if they develop later next week.

I doubt that many hurricane experts trust their models a week out.

 

[DandyDon]

Thanks all, I feel better about my decision to come.

Christi this is the map I was worried about. I was hoping I was not interpreting it correctly but it looks like a direct hit - but yes I do agree with what everyone says and that with a week to go anything can happen.

It's a weak storm almost 3,000 miles from Coz and losing power, currently with sustained winds of 45 mph and weakening. It's wise to look and consider these things, I used to not bother, but she's not much of a player.

Their 5 day forecast shows it weakening to TD. If it hits the mountains of Cuba, it may well break up there. Saturday morning update: This map is the 5 day forecast and auto updating, but they don't expect her to survive past Tuesday...

The map you posted, shown here in more detail I think - if it posts well, includes 6 computer model guesses if you look close enough, some are hard to see - and only 1 gives is a chance of heading to the Yucatan, if it survives. At the worst, you may get rained on leaving - from today's view.

 

[uncfnp]

Looks like Dorian is a Dud! Good news for me too since I am headed to Florida next week.

 

[DandyDon]

Looks like Dorian is a Dud! Good news for me too since I am headed to Florida next week.

Take your umbrella. She did not Rest in Peace: Tropics: Flossie Tracking to Hawaii, Dorian Back to Life? » Texas Storm Chasers

And there is another one behind her: Invest 91l : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

 

[uncfnp]

Take your umbrella. She did not Rest in Peace: Tropics: Flossie Tracking to Hawaii, Dorian Back to Life? » Texas Storm Chasers

And there is another one behind her: Invest 91l : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

Thanks for the update. I had written this one off.

I have a very bad track record for trips and hurricanes, especially dive trips. They are giving it a 30% chance to reform so it will probably happen...