Is it possible to travel responsibly (during a pandemic)?

[GJC]

You are right. The first few months were especially trying. It seemed like we would print patient handouts just to mark through them the next day then shred them by the third day and print new ones! Looking for that info now. Some was on the CDC site, others actual studies.

This is a little dated but mostly valid to the best of my knowledge.

Healthcare Workers

Some of the key points...

The likelihood of recovering replication-competent virus also declines after onset of symptoms. For patients with mild to moderate COVID-19, replication-competent virus has not been recovered after 10 days following symptom onset (CDC, unpublished data, 2020; Wölfel et al., 2020; Arons et al., 2020; Bullard et al., 2020; Lu et al., 2020; personal communication with Young et al., 2020; Korea CDC, 2020). Recovery of replication-competent virus between 10 and 20 days after symptom onset has been documented in some persons with severe COVID-19 that, in some cases, was complicated by immunocompromised state (van Kampen et al., 2020). However, in this series of patients, it was estimated that 88% and 95% of their specimens no longer yielded replication-competent virus after 10 and 15 days, respectively, following symptom onset.

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Although replication-competent virus was not isolated 3 weeks after symptom onset, recovered patients can continue to have SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in their upper respiratory specimens for up to 12 weeks (Korea CDC, 2020; Li et al., 2020; Xiao et al, 2020). Investigation of 285 “persistently positive” persons, which included 126 persons who had developed recurrent symptoms, found no secondary infections among 790 contacts attributable to contact with these case patients. Efforts to isolate replication-competent virus from 108 of these case patients were unsuccessful (Korea CDC, 2020).

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Specimens from patients who recovered from an initial COVID-19 illness and subsequently developed new symptoms and retested positive by RT-PCR did not have replication-competent virus detected (Korea CDC, 2020; Lu et al., 2020). The risk of reinfection may be lower in the first 3 months after initial infection, based on limited evidence from another betacoronavirus (HCoV-OC43), the genus to which SARS-CoV-2 belongs (Kiyuka et al, 2018).

Thanks I hadn't seen that one. Hopefully the new variants will behave the same way.

 

[tursiops]

I was pointing out that irresponsible behavior is the main driver for transmission.

^^THIS^^
But people define "irresponsible" differently, as in this thread.

 

[Dan]

Could be false negative or got it in transit.

True. That’s why I stayed vigilant. Always wearing mask in public indoor facilities like airport. And wearing good mask, like N95 with nose clip pressed against the nose bridge, not stupid cloth bandana type.

 

[uncfnp]

^^THIS^^
But people define "irresponsible" differently, as in this thread.

And that it is the behavior that spreads the virus, not the travel.

 

[Esprise Me]

My friend's son just returned from Akumal on Fri. Tested negative before he returned.

Bad news: Infected his entire family and his father was admitted to hospital this morning.
Good news: He and his college buddies had a great time down there.

There was also this case:

“The original case most likely became infectious after he took the preflight test, but in fact was not symptomatic until 71 hours after the flight,” Freedman said. PCR coronavirus tests are estimated to be about 98 percent effective at detecting the coronavirus, which is why they are required by many countries for entry.

Of the seven infected individuals, five had tested negative within 48 hours before the flight. The authors of the article say the “transmission events occurred despite reported use of masks and gloves in-flight,” and that stringent masking was required by the airline operating the flight.

A traveler tested negative for covid-19 before a flight. He had the virus and infected 4 passengers.

No way of knowing how common this sort of thing is, since most countries do not have this as well controlled as New Zealand, so we have no idea who got infected before, during, or after their flight.

 

[KenGordon]

I continue follow the CDC protocol even after day 5, like any days before in the past 9 months. It’s not the first time I got the negative PCR test results. Why would I get test positive on day 2, 3, or 4 if I am disciplined to keep me from getting the virus & vice versa?

You are relying on everyone on board being clear. The risk is they test ok in some window before travel and then are exposed subsequently. Then there is a window of exposure where you could pick up an undetected infection and pass it on. To get on a plane here you have to have had a negative test no more than 72 hours ahead. That gives a good couple of days to get infected.

Anyway, we don’t actually care about you, just the people you infect and those they infect etc.

The leap is not to regard everyone else as a risk to you, but the realise you are the risk to everyone else.

Travellers are doing no resort a favour if they extend the pandemic.

 

[uncfnp]

@gopbroek posted this link in another thread. I found it interesting enough to repost.

All travelers to U.S., no matter where they’re coming from, need negative COVID-19 test

I am still wondering how the Caribbean will handle positive results.

 

[uncfnp]

There was also this case:

A traveler tested negative for covid-19 before a flight. He had the virus and infected 4 passengers.

No way of knowing how common this sort of thing is, since most countries do not have this as well controlled as New Zealand, so we have no idea who got infected before, during, or after their flight.

Over the past month the CDC has lowered it’s estimates on the accuracy of covid tests, especially the antigen test that was not indicated for asymptomatic from the start. And that is exactly the person that will be most tested with these new requirements.

So we know there are false negatives but are there false positives antigen tests? Yes but much less common and usually caused by errors in testing. A PCR positive is called confirmed, an antigen positive is typically called probable, but still treated as covid unless further testing is negative. We had one of these in the office this weekend.

The Sofia antigen test, generally considered one of the best, only has something like 50 percent chance of detecting covid in someone infected asymptomatically, that makes for a lot of false negatives. Among individuals with symptoms it runs about 80 percent accurate with a good swab. Even the accuracy of the highly touted PCR depends on several factors including if you have symptoms and for how long (viral load is greatest on day 3 of illness), the quality of the specimen and where it was collected.

 

[KenGordon]

Do you know that covid has 99.98% survival rate for people under 70?

Ok well every single time I turn on the tv or radio, the only statistic that I see being focused on is the death rate. I don’t see or hear anybody tracking the “ I don’t feel well for three weeks” rate. Don’t know how to articulate that any other way.

Does your radio cherry pick an age group?

100k dead out of 70 million here. That is pretty much all your surviving done already. Does your definition of survival include people that have not had it yet?

 

[Jafo19D]

When looking at the risks of Covid it’s not binary. It’s not just dying or not dying. There appears to be the possibility of long term effects from this think because it attacks blood vessels.

In addition you can catch it, by asymptomatic and never know you ever had it but get a loved one sick.

I live in Bogotá and travelled to Cartagena on New Year’s Day so we didn’t travel out of the country. Had we gotten sick the logistics would have been ok because we stayed at condo an aunt has at the Raddison and we could have quarantined there very comfortably.

The plan was to go to Cartagena for a little over a week, go back to Bogotá and then go to San Andrés. But while we were in Cartagena the situation in Colombia was getting worse. The hotel was actually allowing buffets with es he guest using the same utensils as everyone else. On our flight back to Bogotá the airport in Cartagena was packed and not enough seats; in other words hardly any social distancing. That’s when I made the decision not to take the second trip.

Am I glad we took the trip ? Yes. I got 11 dives in and had a great time and didn’t get sick (that I know of).

vaccinations haven’t started yet although apparently the first doses just arrived. I don’t have any idea when they’ll get to my age group and I don’t plan on traveling anywhere until I get vaccinated.