Is it possible to travel responsibly (during a pandemic)?

[ibj40]

Do you know that covid has 99.98% survival rate for people under 70?

Thank you, that is very encouraging for those of us over 70.

 

[Grateful head]

Thank you, that is very encouraging for those of us over 70.

I care about my older fellow citizens. Just stating a fact and as you know, the older one gets, the more cautious they have to be. Life.

 

[Cert1967]

Dive travel isn't the only tourist related biz to be COVID impacted. Many skiers are also divers and dollars spent in non diving recreation decrease available dollars for other recreational activities.

Just like the folks here who are traveling to dive - snow sports participants are flocking to our community to ski and ride. Weekend unique backcountry visits in Colorado likely exceed the total US unique dive days for the same time period.

Eagle County Colorado Population ~55k

• increase in winter and summer with tourist, part-time resident population

Don't be 80+ years old and get COVID

Small community, most locals knew those in the deceased population, many of whom were prominent locals. A few were in good health, many were not. Some were just old. And a few unlucky.

These numbers will not prevent 20k+ folks from traveling to Vail this Saturday to ski/ride. The town will be quite full.

Perhaps ski visitors - like LAB and travel to dive international folks - don't see a significant risk in these numbers?

Compared to current dive travel to say CZM, these numbers are far higher. Compared to total LABs, the numbers likely far exceed the total folks on LABs any day this week

• COVID Deaths = 17
  
• Current trend line ~30 positive tests per day
• Hospitalizations for past month ~3-7 per day
• ~45% of total cases are age 20-39
  • 0 deaths in this group
• 0.4% of total cases cataloged died
• 2020 deaths in younger age groups by suicide have increased
• Eagle County total death trend to end 2019 is up due to population increase
  • flu deaths for 2020 in Colorado will be about the same as 2019

Local Stuff

• Skiing 10-20k unique visits per day.
  • about half are day skiers
  • strong international presence, MX by far the largest
  • operational changes have not had significant impact on skier visits
  • international testing negatively affecting INT visits
    • which is a high profit segment of visitors
• Indoor dining - yes
• On mountain dining = yes, capacity <25%, reservations only
• On mountain restaurant for no-rez warmup - cup of hot chocolate? Nope, not without a rez.
• Masks in town, high compliance, masks of dubious quality
• Lifts have capacity/density restrictions. Life lines are spread out.
• Significant restrictions - depends on who you ask
• Local talk - masks on federal lands? in the White River forest by yourself - probably not.

Deaths, % of full time population

>80 = 11, 0.02%
>70 = 2, 0.004%
>60 = 2, 0.004%
>50 = 0, 0.000%
>40 = 2, 0.004%
​

Group, Confirmed Cases, % of Total Confirmed

• 0-9 years, 111, 3%
• 10-19 years, 418, 10%
• 20-29 years, 1002, 23%
• 30-39 years, 899, 21%
• 40-49 years, 707, 16%
  • 2 of 707 died, 0.28%
• 50-59 years, 572, 13%
• 60-69 years, 403, 9%
  • 2 of 403 died, 0.5%
• 70-79 years, 150, 3%
  • 2 of 150 died, 1%
• 80+ years, 55, 1%
  • 11 of 55 died, 20%

2019 total deaths per Cdphe, Eagle County

• >85, 29
• 75-84, 34
• 65-74. 37
• 55-64, 26
• 45-54, 14
• 35-44, 11
• 25-34, 11
• 15-24, 11

 

[Grateful head]

So out of 55k people, 10-20k visits a day, many from international countries only 17 people have died. I had to look up some stats myself because it seems unbelievable but yeah, looks like Vail gets 650,000 visitors just in the winter months and 1.3 million annually. I’d go to Vegas with those odds.

 

[Grateful head]

Last summer instead of taking a dive trip abroad, we road tripped to Ouray Colorado. Stopped in Vail for lunch and to check it out, pretty swank little town. Was kinda weird though, Italy was going thru a huge covid spike at the time if I remember correctly and I thought travel to and from Italy was suspended. But that day, last July, was loaded and I mean loaded with Italian tourists.

 

[tursiops]

So out of 55k people, 10-20k visits a day, many from international countries only 17 people have died. I had to look up some stats myself because it seems unbelievable but yeah, looks like Vail gets 650,000 visitors just in the winter months and 1.3 million annually. I’d go to Vegas with those odds.

Once again, you and others are focused on deaths. Once again, I'll point out death is NOT the most prevalent problem of getting infected with Covid.

 

[Cert1967]

So out of 55k people, 10-20k visits a day, many from international countries only 17 people have died. I had to look up some stats myself because it seems unbelievable but yeah, looks like Vail gets 650,000 visitors just in the winter months and 1.3 million annually. I’d go to Vegas with those odds.

The numbers are low. The nuances of visitor counts are misleading with a quick scrape - the quality of the visitor is more important than the number. Or, how much are they spending?

Big dollars come from the second homeowners. This past summer many second homeowners moved full time to Vail. Everyone wants to work-from-home, live-from-home - in our pristine mountain environment.

The Slifer Report​

Once June rolled around - business exploded - a great summer and a pretty good ski season all things considered. Fall was good. And the ski season has been OK with 70% of average snow-fall to date perhaps hurting our winter numbers.

I70 runs smack dab thru Vail and Eagle County. In the summer we get 'stop-off visitors' - for free parking they may buy a meal and a tee-shirt. Numbers but low dollars. Winter we want the premium visitor - top of the line they flew their own jet to EGE and stay and spend money like water. At 120 miles from Denver day-skiing has exploded - but a lower spend per person by a big margin. Winter, parking is $30-50 and the dollars per visitor increase exponentially from day-skier to multi-day stay vacationer. Longer the stay - the more the folks spend. Something for the dive industry to think about.

Oh, and the high-end skiers is a ski renter. They own their own boots - custom fit - and rent top-of-the-line skis at ~$70 per day. The dive industry rents gear that started as bottom-of-the-barrel and gets poor maintenance. Maybe the SCUBA industry might see the light here?

Lots of skiers are divers. We have a dive shop - Beaver Divers - in our community that sits at ~7.5k ASL. A small percent, but not insignificant. Many diver/skiers that I chat up are many time skiers and few time divers. The common dive question from them is, 'how do I arrange a dive trip'? You know to go to PADI's dive trip site, but the general tourist probably does not.

And for the SCUBA instructor crowd - particularly the high-end tech group - what do you get for a day's private lesson? Vail ski-school private lesson on Saturday, Jan 30? $1,165 as I write. The resort uses demand pricing - during peak periods the cost is $1,200-$1,350.

There is so much money in recreation. The dive industry - with poor marketing and little imagination - gets but a handful of dollars. And now COVID is gutting the industry and ruining the lives of the small business operators who are the backbone of the industry.

Back to the COVID issue. The biggest infected group and likely the biggest spreaders are the young folks. They don't die and have mild cases. I suspect they see little risk. Over 80 - the risk is big. County is running V-program, Moderna. Young folks in first responder groups - particularly women - have passed on the V. Most V sessions have had extra doses jabbed to non-priority groups vs. being flushed away. Next week should see the 70+ group largely V jabbed - first responders and care-homes are done - with the 60 ground to follow. The old folks are beating a path to the door. First day of 70+ the folks crashed the county's website, crashed the phone system and slowed 911. More passion that the last election for a jab in the arm from this group.

Hope all the 80+ folks are V-jabbed up.

 

[KenGordon]

Not trying to be obtuse but I really don’t understand what you are asking. My definition of survival is if 1000 people under the age of 70 catch covid, 999.8 will survive, as in live to fight another day.

Then you are completely mistaken about the survival rate. For men aged 20 to 64 (Ie working age) in the U.K. 30 have dies per 100k of population. About 20 for women. That is a equivalent (dividing by 100) to 999.7 who are not dead yet. Of those 1000 about 15% have been infected. That means the deaths/1000 is 0.3 *6 or 1.8. Thus survival rate is 998.2 or about 10 times worse than your claim.

have you got any actual data to support your claim or is it just something you “heard”?

 

[Grateful head]

“The quality of the visitor is more important than the number”. Does “quality” equate to “wealthy” and if so does “wealthy” equate to a cautious, safe traveler? If it can be done safely in Vail, it can be done safely in Cozumel. IMO

 

[Cert1967]

Once again, you and others are focused on deaths. Once again, I'll point out death is NOT the most prevalent problem of getting infected with Covid.

Well, you certainly have made that clear ... have you asked any of the COVID dead folks?

BUT - wait a minute here and let's think about this - DEATH is pretty big.

And check with that 20-40 age group - most would not seem to agree with you. These folks are the most infected and likely the biggest spreaders. Young folks in a resort area get around and have a sense of invulnerability. Maybe it is similar in your community? I am not arguing or discussing you virus positions and premises - only looking at what is going on in my community. And it doesn't look like what you seem to want.

SO - it seems to me that most folks, like the folks coming to ski resorts, don't agree with you - following what you consider to be 'best practices'. No judgment on my part - I am just looking around and see what is in front of me.

How would you have a greater percentage of the population follow your lead? Strong arm, fines, confinement?

Vail will have 20k plus visitors this Saturday.

There are 3 exits from I70 to Vail - would you have the National Guard block tourists at the entrances to our community? Confiscate their rides? For those arriving at EGE, would you have the airplanes impounded?

The Governor of Colorado, Polis, doesn't agree with you - how about in your state? Does your state look the way you want it to be?

There is no question that SB knows where you stand - what are you doing to see adoption of your V viewpoints and position? You seem very unhappy with the current state of V-affairs, right?