What percentage of your certified Open Water Divers complete their 20th logged dive?

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PADI could infer from their later certifications as to how many divers are doing something at 1 month, 6 months, a year. Beyond that it would be hard, as comparatively very few people sign up for tech courses or instructor courses, which are pretty conclusive signs of someone still diving.

I do not think an inference on later certifications would be valid as to how many divers are active or current in diving because OW certification is adequate to meet most rec diver's needs. There are a lot of divers, me included, that are active divers but are doing everything they want to do without spending the money for AOW or higher certs. It might happen some day, but so far I have seen no need to spend money on a higher cert that would add little or nothing to my diving experience.
 
In the early 1960s, there were only a few certifying agencies in the world. There were essentially only two certification levels--open water diver and instructor. The dropout rate was huge. One of those few agencies, Los Angeles County, tried to do something about it. They invented a new certification--Advanced Open Water Diver--on the theory that teaching more skills and introducing the diver to different kinds of diving would spark interest and keep people involved. Other agencies followed suit.

The point is that this has been going on since they invented scuba diving. I suspect that the retention rate today may be higher than it was then, but there is really no way of knowing because there is no way to get that evidence for certain. My guess is based on the fact that there are still a huge number of thriving dive operations around the world, and somebody is keeping them in business.
 
This is a very interesting discussion! As for obtaining additional certifications I have to agree that is is not relevant. As my profile show I and been diving for a few year, my wife and dive partner was certified in 1987. We average now about 50 dives per year (yep, warm water dive snobs and proud of it). We have talked about her getting AOW but just don't see a need. Deep dives? Yep been below 60 feet so many times it is old hat for us. Navigation? Well we have been to Bonaire and found our way home even during night dives. Nitrox we both did for shortened dive intervals and safety. Really what other advantages are there to having a badge? We are lucky each of us love diving more than the other. It is sad but understandable why so many seem to miss the excitement. Did they ever go to the Caribbean or just do freshwater diving? Does their mate love it or did they even try it? It's not a cheap sport and if done seldom can be very expensive. Then factor in health issues that can limit a person. I am lucky I fell in love with a person that shared my addiction and yes it is an addiction.
 
I think a big part of student continuing is the confidence that students walk away with after finishing open water. When I first started teaching (I'll admit, on the knees) that students were nervous to go diving by themselves, so I dealt with that by going diving with them. After the first dive, things clicked and they relaxed. I've changed how I teach dramatically and this has resulted in divers being more confident (I still have a long ways to improve however).

Given that I teach in the Puget Sound, most of the students want to dive somewhere warm, so I'd say a quarter of my students become cold water divers. Maybe another quarter warm water only. The rest probably didn't dive again after their trips. One class I had, everyone (4 people) continued diving in cold water. My last class (of 9), 3. I find that as I improve as an instructor, the numbers appear to go up, but the my sample size is too small given the dramatic variability of how tolerant people are to cold water.
 
Agree with boulderjohn. As he says, no real way of knowing the actual retention rate anyway. I haven't noticed any difference here and where I go in the US. As well, retaining more divers than we even have now means threads on even more divers crashing into reefs on overpopulated dive sites.

Agree with wildbill9 in his point about Caribbean diving vs. local freshwater (quarries, etc.). I would love to be able to go to the Carib. (more than my once so far) and more exotic places. Local NS diving and around NY is just OK. FL panhandle a little better than OK. If I weren't such a creature of habit I could easily see losing interest. I mentioned on the Shells thread in Basic about the rather large N.E. Neptune I found last week. Something like that keeps me going as well.
 
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If the supply and demand ratio and the amount of used scuba gear in yardsales is any hint I'd suggest the number is significant.

No one I've taught OW (only been an instructor since 2015) yet hasn't continued on to be an active diver. Try dives weed out those not wanting to be active.

As a global traveler the vast majority of "divers" I meet (At least 50:1) have OW certification plus a few bucket list dives. It's a costly hobby to indulge in regularly compared to other 'comparable' activities.

Regards,
Cameron
 
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Just from what I've seen locally and talking with other folks in my region:

The cold water divers are the hard core folks. When you're out at the quarry in mid-Feb for cold water diving (because there isn't any ice for ice diving), at the quarry when it opens in early April, and you've already been diving for nearly 8-10 weeks when the rest of the folks start trickling in... Here, if you're going to dive locally and you don't care for cold water, you might dive from July though the end of September. You want it "easy," and get the rest of your diving done on trips to the tropics.

I guess it just depends on how much you want to dive. Me, I can't get enough. I'm diving every weekend.
 
We have talked about her getting AOW but just don't see a need.

I'm a little surprised with your dive count, reason being I've seen a couple of guys turned down for a deep wreck dive in Key Largo for lack of AOW (in fairness, the Captain was willing to look at their log books, and they didn't have them).

This isn't the 1st account of a dive op. requiring AOW for some dives, or there being some added hassle if you don't have it.

Have you just not run into this, or have you had to deal with a situation where 'just' OW wasn't initially satisfactory? The issue isn't whether you have done or can do dives over 60 feet, etc... The issue is whether you'll be given the chance.

Richard.
 
Lots of places require AOW for deeper and more challenging dives. I was recently in a dive shop in South Florida, and a guy showed up with an OW card for a dive to a wreck at 110 feet. They would not accept it. He said he was really an instructor, but he was following the common (but foolish) advice to show only his lowest level card, and he did not realize he would need to show an AOW card. They went to look up his certification online, but as luck would have it, the server was down. He had to dive with a DM to be allowed on that trip.

If the shop's insurance policy requires a certain certification for a certain dive, then that is what it is going to be.

I guess it's time to dust off an old standard:
 
Lots of places require AOW for deeper and more challenging dives. I was recently in a dive shop in South Florida, and a guy showed up with an OW card for a dive to a wreck at 110 feet. They would not accept it. He said he was really an instructor, but he was following the common (but foolish) advice to show only his lowest level card, and he did not realize he would need to show an AOW card. They went to look up his certification online, but as luck would have it, the server was down. He had to dive with a DM to be allowed on that trip.

If the shop's insurance policy requires a certain certification for a certain dive, then that is what it is going to be.

I guess it's time to dust off an old standard:

I carry my Adv Open Water and Nitrox cards. Unless i am cave diving, that will get me anything I need.
 
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