What are the chances that TS Rina will blow out out diving later this week or worse

[Aspendiver]

Ice machines fail due to power outage and you will have to drink your tequila straight up. I could live with that.

Unless they declare martial law, and don't let you drink at all. Which is what happened during Wilma. I was there.

And guess what? I was supposed to fly down tomorrow. Once burned....

 

[DandyDon]

And guess what? I was supposed to fly down tomorrow. Once burned....

Did your airline give you a free change or refund?

From Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Rina rapidly intensifies into a hurricane : Weather Underground

Rina in historical context
Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday, Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday. On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. Heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday. Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October bring to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also performed such a feat in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced. Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.

 

[WSOPFAN]

Why is it that as I read the progession of your posts, there seems to be an underlying layer of snide and sneer? Like you're trying to scare people, without seeming that you are... like you pretend to be a fan of Cozumel, but it's actually the opposite (it's like you want the H to hit us), and I don't mean just this thread either....

Maybe I'm wrong... but I may be right....

As a matter of fact I did not like the fact it was only a tropical storm so I increased it to be Cat 3 and I am personally steering it for a direct hit. :mooner: Maybe I should make it a CAT 5.....hmmmmmm..........I am 100% confident the OP appreciates any updates so as to form an opinion if they should proceed with plans to go forward with their planned visit on Tuesday.

 

[Aspendiver]

Did your airline give you a free change or refund?

Haven't asked yet.... diving with ScubaDu... I was sort of holding out hope, and waiting to talk to Antonio before I boarded the plane tomorrow (four hour drive to the airport).
He's a straight shooter- called me today to warn me.

 

[driftin' by]

The red one doesn't fizzle. The track just goes thru Monday, but that doesn't mean it dies then. Most of the models do reflect the norther expected thru here Tuesday night, there Friday.

Good point. But if I had to pick one, I think that would be it. Don't want to see it hit land anywhere. I don't like the UKMET (white) or GFDL (blue) predicting landfall at the same spot between Costa Maya/Mahahual and Tulum. They're still recovering from Hurricane Dean.

 

[Mike]

Maybe I'm wrong...

nope

In regards to the storm - Boy, I hope this storm doesn't turn super ugly. Things are happening so fast.

 

[WSOPFAN]

Quote Originally Posted by CozumelAntonio
Maybe I'm wrong...

nope

Yea this posted by someone who spent the last week or so in the Scuba Mau thread with post after post of insults and degrading comments AFTER posters were repeatedly told it was a sympathy only thread. You got alot of nerve with your insinuation towards me.

 

[ColoDale]

We are scheduled into San Miguel on Friday. When I first looked at the models, some had it near the Cancun/Cozumel area on Friday but it has updated several times since then and now it's Thursday so it looks to be faster moving. In addition, some models have it going south though I am not wishing it for those there. Never hoped for a Norte before. Then if it rains alot we'll deal with any rain runoff/vis probs.

We will be getting on the plane for Dallas and will see what happens. If we have to overnight in Dallas then so be it and we will figure it out with the airlines for seats.

 

[DandyDon]

Haven't asked yet.... diving with ScubaDu... I was sort of holding out hope, and waiting to talk to Antonio before I boarded the plane tomorrow (four hour drive to the airport).
He's a straight shooter- called me today to warn me.

Wow?! You're still packing? It may veer off but I would be calling to see if I could change for free.

We are scheduled into San Miguel on Friday. When I first looked at the models, some had it near the Cancun/Cozumel area on Friday but it has updated several times since then and now it's Thursday so it looks to be faster moving. In addition, some models have it going south though I am not wishing it for those there. Never hoped for a Norte before. Then if it rains alot we'll deal with any rain runoff/vis probs.

We will be getting on the plane for Dallas and will see what happens. If we have to overnight in Dallas then so be it and we will figure it out with the airlines for seats.

Now there is an adventure traveler.

 

[Ron Lee]

You won't get on the plane if they cancel the flight. Monitor your airline website frequently in the coming days for possible travel advisories and cancellations.